I’ve said before: I have run into folks who voted for Obama in 2008 who say they won’t vote for him in 2012, but haven’t run into anybody who didn’t vote for him in 2008 who say they will in 2012.
Data seems to confirm my random anecdotal evidence …
From the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll:
Not only is Pres. Obama’s overall approval rating lagging, but he’s lost as much (or even more) ground among groups that favored him in 2008 as among those who resisted him last time.
Overall, Obama has slipped from 52.8 percent of the vote in 2008 to 44 percent approval in the new survey with 49 percent disapproving.
As the chart below shows, Obama has declined not only in the groups that were always dubious of him, but also with several that enthusiastically joined his winning 2008 majority.
The groups that have proven most resistant to this trend are Hispanics (where Obama’s latest approval rating has slipped just three percentage points from his 2008 vote share); seniors (where he’s actually running slightly ahead) and families earning at least $100,000 annually (where he’s also fallen just three percentage points.)
Tags: 2012 election, Obama, presidential approval
The Homa Files 
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