The Homa Files

A couple of numbers have caught my eye in the past couple of days.  They’re not getting much play, but could be “sleepers” for the next couple of weeks.

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Catholics

According to IBD/TIPP (the most accurate poll in the 2004 election), Catholics are currently favoring Obama over McCain 47% to 43%
http://ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309299583450546

Ken’s Take: Watch this shift as Catholic bishops remind church goers that the sanctity of life is a fundamental tenet of the Church.  The abortion debate has been back-burnered, watch it heat up

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Wealth Distribution

According to Gallup, Americans overwhelmingly — by 84% to 13% — prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/democrats_favor_spreading_wealth_around_gop_disagrees

Ken’s take: Obama’s gaffe to Joe the Plumber seems to have traction — and not just among high-earners.  The candidates’ economic pitches are disbelieved mumbo-jumbo to most folks, so images like Joe communicate with impact.

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Middle Class

According to Rasmussen, among middle-income Americans, those earning $40,000 to $100,000 annually, 58% say that McCain (or his defacto surrogate Joe the Plumber) best understands their situation. Just 35% say Obama does.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/democrats_favor_spreading_wealth_around_gop_disagrees

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Ken’s Take: This is a corollary of the wealth distribution factor.  While those to whom wealth is being distributed like the idea, folks at the top and in the middle don’t.  My guess: those in the middle either don’t believe they’ll get any of the loot or still aspire to be in the top bracket.

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Iraq

According to a 2008 national survey of independents by TargetPoint Consulting 66% of independent voters believe that the U.S. has an obligation to establish security in Iraq before withdrawing.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122445963016248615.html

Ken’s Take: I’m betting this gets some sway in the last days of the campaign.

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Mud Slinging

Ken’s Take:

(1) Nothing will stick re: Ayers, but ACORN will elevate as an issue and Rev. Wright will do a reprise to center stage.

(2) The attacks on Joe the Plumber and Cindy McCain (NY Times) will create some backlash.  It will bebarely noticeable until election day.

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This entry was posted on October 22, 2008 at 7:59 am and is filed under Government & Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.