The election just got messier!

September 19, 2020

To say the least, RBG’s death is disruptive
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Here are my takeaways from last night’s chatter:

1. Roes v. Wade is on the ballot again.

Politely stated, the make-up of the SCOTUS will surpass COVID and law & order as the most important issue.  That will rally the evangelicals (for Trump) and the pro-choice crowd (to Biden).

My hunch: The pro choice crowd is already in Biden’s camp.  Evangelicals will go from lukewarm on Trump to “hold your nose” when voting.

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2. Trump will certainly go forward with a quick nomination, probably pre-vetted Amy Coney Barrett.

For Trump, it’s  a manhood issue and it puts his legacy is at stake.

The Dems will “Kavanaugh” her for sure.  But doing so, will rally some suburban women back to Trump.

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3. Election voting issues will largely be determined by lower courts

Late & questionable mail-in ballots will be this election’s hanging chads that determine who wins.

It’s very unlikely that confirmation can happen before or soon after the election.

So, any issues that make it to the SCOTUS are likely to score a 4-4 tie … with CJ Roberts voting with the liberals.

That means that lower court decisions will stand.

Trump’s lower court-loading may work to his advantage

Venue shopping will key.  Expect the Dems to overload the liberal 8th circuit.

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4. Confirmation hangs with Collins & Romney

Romney hates Trump and vote against any nomination … even one that is completely consistent with his few moral principles.

Collins will likely lose her election because she cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.

Losing frees her to vote her conscience and gives her a chance to stick it to the Maine voters who rejected her.

Ironically, Trump may benefit from a Collins’ loss.

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This is going to be very interesting….

Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 19, 2020

203,138 Deaths-to-Date

920 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 820     (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,530  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,3891

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Remember when Trump advised us to use scarves during mask shortage?

September 18, 2020

Of course, he was eviscerated by the med-science community and the mainstream media
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Flashback to late March when community spread of the coronavirus was ramping up.

The WHO, the CDC and US Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks … saying that they were, at best minimally protective, could exasperate the problem if worn incorrectly and would distract people from handwashing and social distancing.

“The science” was unsettled.  Scientists were unsure how the virus was transmitted. There were published peer-reviewed studies on both sides of the issue.

That said, the  real reason for the science community’s advisories: masks were in short supply and the supply chain was impaired by Chinese hoarding and off-shored manufacturing.

In a Task Force press conference, Trump cut to the chase … said the real reason was the need to supply hospital workers with masks first … and he casually opined that, in the short-run, folks could stop-gap by using scarves or other face coverings as a make-shift protective shield.

click to view video (90 sec.)
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Of course, Trump said it — and  he’s an MSM-certified idiot, so the media pounced:

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Of course, there’s more to the story…
Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 18: Election Odds & Polls

September 18, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.8   Lead +7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 23  Lead 53 

Sept. 18: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 18, 2020

202,130 Deaths-to-Date

896 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 848     (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,476  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,376

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Goes Despacito…

September 17, 2020

For the “you can’t make this stuff up” file
================

Hoping to validate his “cool” credentials and  to connect directly with the intimately few attendees  at a Hispanic Heritage Month Event in Kissimmee, FL … here’s the way that Hidin’ Joe Biden opened his speech:

MUST WATCH=> click to view – 39 seconds
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The song is the sexy-salsa hit “Despacito”.

Besides Biden’s awkwardness, here’s what makes Biden’s song choice such a head-scratcher…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 17: Election Polls & Odds

September 17, 2020

Biden +5.0 in odds, +6.8 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.3  Lead +5.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb[2]

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 17: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 17, 2020

201,266 Deaths-to-Date

1,069 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 869       (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,609  New Cases
> 7-day average  37,814

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

“Confirmed cases” skyrocketed … how many were false positives?

September 16, 2020

One answer to why there wasn’t a commensurate high spike in deaths.
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COVID tests yielding “false positive” results have been hitting the news again.

A couple of weeks ago, Ohio governor Mike DeWine tested positive, missed an event with President Trump and was subsequently re-tested (twice) and found to be negative.

See Ohio Gov. DeWine tests negative … after testing positive.

This week, it was reported that several nursing homes have experienced numerous cases of false positives.

False-positive test results are a particularly significant risk in nursing homes, because a resident wrongly believed to have Covid-19 could be placed in an area dedicated to infected patients, potentially exposing an uninfected person to the coronavirus.

And, there is a growing number of reports that re-opened schools are being shut-down when a single student or faculty member tested positive.  Locally, I know of 3 such instances.

Bottom line: false positives are very likely and have significant consequences to patients and institutions.

The IHME estimates that less than 1% of Americans are currently infected.

Given the low prevalence of COVID (i.e. percentage currently infected) … and low but statistically significant testing errors … the likelihood of false positives is very high!

Here’s my logic…

In my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).

Today, we’ll apply Bayesian Inference to the COVID testing situation…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 16: Election Odds & Polls

September 16, 2020

Biden +4.4 in odds, +6.8 in polls
Mideast peace agreements signed
Bloomberg: $100 million for Biden

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 51.6  Trump 47.2  Lead +4.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.8
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 16: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 16, 2020

200,171 Deaths-to-Date

1,171 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 884       (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,925  New Cases
> 7-day average  36,058

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Flashback: Politifacts’ 2009 “Lie of the Year”

September 15, 2020

“If you like your health care plan, you can keep it … and, your family’s annual healthcare costs will go down by $2,500″
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Joe Biden is outraged that Trump “followed the science” and minimized the likely impact of the coronavirus.

For details, see: Fauci: “He was saying what we were telling him”

Biden: “Lied to the American public. Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.

The first part “lied to the American people” brought back bad memories.

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Remember Obama’s infamous line: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it … and, your family’s annual healthcare costs will go down by $2,500″

Biden oft repeated the line when selling ObamaCare … and, reprised it in the primaries when fending off opponents’ Medicare-for-All promises.

What’s the rub?

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 15: Election Odds & Polls

September 15, 2020

Biden +5.8 in odds, +7.1 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.5  Trump 46.7  Lead +5.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 45  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 15: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 15, 2020

199,000 Deaths-to-Date

480 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 781    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,072  New Cases
> 7-day average  36,058

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Did Trump “lie” and “cause” thousands of deaths?

September 14, 2020

Let’s drill down on Woodward’s “bombshell” (and Biden’s new campaign mantra)
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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people … and, that confusion and delay resulted in “thousands of unnecessary deaths”.

The Biden campaign quickly shifted gears from “Build Back Better” to “Trump lied, people died”.

Really?

Bottom line: Save for the dramatic impact of the audio tapes, Woodward’s “bombshell” is old news that has been debunked by the science (and scientists) … and the data.

Specifically, the NY Times ran an  article dated April 11 that detailed practically all of Woodwards’s “scoops” … and subsequently “the science ” — voiced by none other Dr. Anthony Fauci — and “the data” provided context, explanations and refutations.

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Let’s start by flashing back to our April 13 post that analyzed the Times’ story…

Note: Trust me, the analysis is as relevant today as it was in April.  It’s long, but IMHO, well worth the reading time. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 14: Election Odds & Polls

September 14, 2020

Biden +6.5 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.8  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 44  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 14, 2020

198,520 Deaths-to-Date

392 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 759    (peak 2.229 April 23)

31,857  New Cases
> 7-day average  34,247

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 13: Election Odds & Polls

September 13, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.0  Lead +670 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 43  Lead 17

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
Most recent poll: Sept. 8
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 13: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 13, 2020

198,118 Deaths-to-Date

698 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 757    (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,420  New Cases
> 7-day average  33,759

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 12: Election Odds & Polls

September 12, 2020

Biden +6.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.6  Trump 46.6  Lead +6.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 12, 2020

197,395 Deaths-to-Date

1,068 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 766    (peak 2.229 April 23)

46,270  New Cases
> 7-day average  34,162

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

More: Fauci confirms “Trump was saying what we were telling him”

September 11, 2020

MUST READ: This post was updated Sept.13 with a substantially expanded timeline of who said what, when they said it … and how Trump responded at the time.

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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people.

Biden: “Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.

Trump: “Listening to the scientists, and didn’t want to prematurely cause a panic”.

How to settle the question?

Let’s start with what Dr. Anthony Fauci had to truth-tell on the matter:

click to view 4-minute video
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By Fauci’s own admission, Trump was “following the science” … contemporaneously channeling what Fauci and other “scientists” were telling him at the time. 

Let’s dig a little deeper on that and look hard at the timeline…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 11: Election Odds & Polls

September 11, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.2  Lead +6.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb5

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 11, 2020

196,193 Deaths-to-Date

945 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 738    (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,544  New Cases
> 7-day average  34,867

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Fauci: “He was saying what we were telling him”

September 10, 2020

Fauci diffuses Woodward’s “bombshell”

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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his revelation that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people.

Biden: “Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.

Trump: “Listening to the scientists, and didn’t want to prematurely cause a panic”.

How to settle the question?

Here’s what Dr. Anthony “My Word is Gospel” Fauci had to say on the matter:

click to view 4-minute video
image

By Fauci’s own admission, Trump was “following the science” … channeling what he and other “scientists” were telling him at the time. 

Let’s dig a little deeper on that and look at the timeline…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 10: Election Odds & Polls

September 10, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.7

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48 

Sept. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 10, 2020

195,184 Deaths-to-Date

1,154 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 750       (peak 2.229 April 23)

34,234  New Cases
> 7-day average  35,972

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

How effective are vaccines?

September 9, 2020

Answer: Not as much as you might expect.
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Excerpted from a September 2019 White House report which looked specifically at flu and coronavirus vaccines ….

There is considerable variation from year to year in how much the flu vaccine reduces the risk of contracting the seasonal flu and flu-related illnesses.

Over the past 14 years, influenza vaccine effectiveness has ranged between 10% and 60%.

clip_image002_thumb2

Much of the variability depends on which viral strains predominate in a given year and, more specifically, whether the vaccine matches the viral strain that is circulating in a given flu season.

Although a mismatch between the vaccine and the virus circulating during a flu season reduces efficacy, vaccines still provide some protection against flu illness and decrease the severity of the illness, due to immunologic similarity between the viruses.

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When it comes to pandemic viruses

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 9: Election Odds & Polls

September 9, 2020

Biden +5 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.0  Lead +5.3  Up 1.3

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.1
Undecided 8.0

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48  Up 5

Sept. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 9, 2020

193,983 Deaths-to-Date

449 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 726    (peak 2.229 April 23)

27,077  New Cases
> 7-day average  36,704

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…

September 8, 2020

He was for them before he was against them.
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You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.

In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.

In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.

One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate

I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.

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Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 8: Election Odds & Polls

September 8, 2020

Biden +8 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.8  Trump 45.7  Lead +8.1

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23
image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 44  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.3
Undecided 8.0

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 71  Trump 28  Lead 43

 

Sept. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 8, 2020

193,534 Deaths-to-Date

586 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 836    (peak 2.229 April 23)

25,325  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,874

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 7, 2020

193,206  Deaths-to-Date

389 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 856    (peak 2.229 April 23)

28306  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,379

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 6, 2020

192,817  Deaths-to-Date

706 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 861    (peak 2.229 April 23)

40,379  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,008

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 5, 2020

192,032  Deaths-to-Date

974 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 881    (peak 2.229 April 23)

51,204  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,905

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

More: What did Trump know, when did he know it?

September 4, 2020

Most important: What did he do about it?
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In a prior post, we channeled an op-ed authored by members of a team that wrote a September 2019 White House report … and then we drilled down on the report’s details.

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The report’s fundamental conclusions:

  • Large-scale, immediate immunization is the most effective way to control the spread of pandemic viruses
  • The current government-centric approach to vaccine research,  development and deployment is far too slow.
  • To provide adequate risk mitigation for pandemics, public-private partnerships are needed to speed up the development and deployment of vaccines.

So, how did the Trump respond to the report?

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According to the authors of the aforementioned WSJ op-ed

“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.

Specifically, they report:

On Sept. 19, a few days after the CEA issued its report, the president signed Executive Order 13887.

The essence of the Executive Order:

It is the policy of the United States to modernize the domestic virus vaccine enterprise to be highly responsive, flexible, scalable, and more effective at preventing the spread of viruses.

This is a public health and national security priority, as viruses have the potential to significantly harm the United States and our interests, including through large-scale illness and death, disruption to military operations, and damage to the economy.

The EO created several initiatives to modernize vaccine production, including “incentives for the development and production of vaccines by private manufacturers and public-private partnerships.”

In other words, the September 2019 White House report and the EO that quickly followed laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed — perhaps, the most critical component of the coronavirus response, hastening the development and launch of therapeutic drugs and vaccines.

More specifically …

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Operation Warp Speed (OWS)

Directly from the HHS site:

Goal: Operation Warp Speed (OWS) aims to deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective vaccine for COVID-19 by January 2021.

Approach: To accelerate development while maintaining standards for safety and efficacy, OWS has been selecting the most promising development candidates and providing coordinated government support.

Rather than eliminating steps from traditional development timelines, steps will proceed simultaneously, such as starting manufacturing of the vaccine at industrial scale well before the demonstration of vaccine efficacy and safety as happens normally. This increases the financial risk, but not the product risk.

The federal government is making investments in the necessary manufacturing capacity at its own risk, giving firms confidence that they can invest aggressively in development and allowing faster distribution of an eventual vaccine.

============

Bottom line: “Flattening the Curve” was intended to slow the spread of the virus to avoid blowing past hospital capacity while awaiting a virus-blasting vaccine.

Trump placed a big bet on Operation Warp Speed … and the clock is ticking.

Sept. 4: Election Odds & Polls

September 4, 2020

Biden +2 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 50.7  Trump 48.7  Lead +2.0

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.4  Lead 7.2
Undecided 8.0
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver 

Biden 70  Trump 29  Lead 41

Sept. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 4, 2020

191,027  Deaths-to-Date

1,063 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 942    (peak 2.229 April 23)

43,877  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,384

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Details below…

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Details: What did Trump know, when did he know it?

September 3, 2020

More important: What was he advised to do?
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In a prior post, we channeled an op-ed authored by members of a team that wrote a September 2019 White House report

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Based on the report and its follow-up, the authors assert:

“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.

Said differently:

The White House Was Prepared for a Pandemic: The September 2019 report laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed

Today, let’s drill down on the September 2019 White House report…

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Sept. 3 Election Odds & Polls

September 3, 2020

Even odds; Biden +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.8  Trump 49.5  Lead +.1

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.4  Lead 7.2Undecided 8.0
Note: All polls up to date

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 28  Lead 40

Sept. 3: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 3, 2020

189,935  Deaths-to-Date

1,061 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 915    (peak 2.229 April 23)

40,763  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,361

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Details below…

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What did Trump know and when did he know it?

September 2, 2020

Trump’s pandemic response triggered by a Sept. 2019 Report.
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During the DNC, Gov. Cuomo echoed the Dem talking point that the Trump administrations Covid-19 response has been “dysfunctional and incompetent” … that the federal government “couldn’t fight off the virus. In fact, Trump didn’t even see it coming.”

With that in mind, an op-ed in the WSJ a week ago caught my eye:

The White House Prepared for a Pandemic: A September 2019 report laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed

The authors  were on the team that wrote a September 2019 White House report that (1) calibrated the likelihood of a pandemic (2) identified rapid vaccine development as the key to an effective response, and (3) recommended policies and actions to speed vaccine development.

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Based on the report and its follow-up, the authors assert:

“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.

Specifically, they report:

On Sept. 19, a few days after the CEA issued its report, the president signed Executive Order 13887.

The essence of the Executive Order:

It is the policy of the United States to modernize the domestic virus vaccine enterprise to be highly responsive, flexible, scalable, and more effective at preventing the spread of viruses.

This is a public health and national security priority, as viruses have the potential to significantly harm the United States and our interests, including through large-scale illness and death, disruption to military operations, and damage to the economy.

The EO created several initiatives to modernize vaccine production, including “incentives for the development and production of vaccines by private manufacturers and public-private partnerships.”

In other words, the September 2019 White House report and the EO that quickly followed laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed — perhaps, the most critical component of the coronavirus response, hastening the development and launch of therapeutic drugs and vaccines.
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Coming: A drill down on the Dec. 2019 White House Report

Sept. 2: Election Odds & Polls

September 2, 2020

Trump takes lead in RCP Betting Average

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.7  Trump 49.8  Lead +.1

Yesterday:            50.9 48.6 +2.3
Biden July Best :
   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 57  Trump 46  Lead 11

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 
Pre-conventions:       60 43 +17

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 43.4  Lead 6.2  Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 70  Trump 30  Lead 40

Sept. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 2, 2020

188,900  Deaths-to-Date

1,164 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 935    (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,979  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,319

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Details below…

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Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….

September 1, 2020

Controversial topic, so let’s just follow the data “follow the data”
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Biden says that he and Obama eased the racial divide … and that Trump is blew the gap wide open.

What do the numbers day?

click graph to enlarge
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Well, according to Gallup, that’s only partially right…

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Sept. 1 : Election Odds & Polls

September 1, 2020

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.0  Trump 49.0  Gap +3.0

Yesterday:            50.6 48.7 +1.9
Biden July Best :
   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 57  Trump 46  Gap 11

Yesterday:            53 48 +7
Biden July Best
:   63 39 +24 
Pre-conventions:   60 43 +17

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 43.4  Gap 6.2  Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61  Trump 39  Gap 22

Sept. 1: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 1, 2020

187,215  Deaths-to-Date

455 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 938    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,860  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,891

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Details below…

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Shocker: Americans uneasy about violence in the streets…

August 31, 2020

…. and, it’s showing up in the polls with big implications.
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Let’s start with the big picture…

Prior to each Presidential election, Pew surveys Americans to find out which issues are most important to them.

Below are Pew’s results for 2016 and 2020

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Here’s how to interpret the chart and the key takeaways…

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