On this Memorial Day …

May 25, 2020

 Remember all who gave their lives on our behalf
   … and thank those who are serving us now. 

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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May 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 25, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

613 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,199
> Peaked on April 21

193 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
44,063 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

May 24, 2020

Which are the ones to watch?
=============

A loyal reader asked: The “Bottom 39” DND keeps rising, are there any particular states driving that?

So, I crunched some numbers looking at the past 3 weeks of data… May 3 until today (charts below).

During that period, there were 30,288 C-19 deaths in the U.S.

The Bottom 39 accounted for 8,601 of those deaths … that’s 28% of the total.

16 states (in the Bottom 39) had more than 200 deaths between May 3 and May 24.

Those 16 states accounted for 6,086 deaths … that’s 70% of the Bottom 39 total.

Note that:

  • The states near the top of the list of 16 are relatively large in population
  • Texas and North Carolina still have relatively low per capita death rates
  • Rhode Island and D.C. are low on the list of 16 (but in the Top 28) and have relatively high per capita death rates
  • Minnesota, Arizona, Mississippi, Iowa and New Mexico have more than doubled their death count since May 3

image

Here’s another cut at the data…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 24, 2020

1,043 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,224
> Peaked on April 21

271 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
98,693
Worldometer
43,954 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May24: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 24, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 98,693 299 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,954  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 78,218 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 508 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 116 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

UPDATE: Here we go again … “Science” takes still another u-turn.

May 23, 2020

It’s a bigger deal than whether we need to wipe down our counters and packages.
==============

After months of telling us that the coronavirus lives on door knobs, countertops, packages and whatever … and that we need to disinfect all surfaces:

The CDC has issued a new directive that informs us that “The virus spreads easily between people, but not by touching surfaces, objects or animals

image

On it’s own, this course reversal doesn’t trouble me.

Yeah, people have become more germophobic … and, store shelves have been emptied as consumers stocked up on disinfectants.

That’s OK. It’s good hygiene and consumers will eventually work off their overstock.

My issue: This course reversal fits a bigger, problematic pattern.

Read the rest of this entry »

May 23: Key NATIONAL Data

May 23, 2020

1,277 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,305

327 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image_thumb4

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
97,640
Worldometer
43,683 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 23: Key STATES Data

May 23, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 97,640 296 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,683  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 77,488 79% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 504 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 114 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 22, 2020

1,445 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,350

339 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
96,363
Worldometer
43,356 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 22: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 22, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 96,363 297 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,356  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 76,588 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 498 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 111 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

click chart to enlarge
image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

 

Shocker: “Asymptomatics” not rushing to get tested.

May 21, 2020

Quick quiz: If you wanted to get tested for COVID-19, how would go about getting a test? What are your odds of actually getting tested?
==============

The Washington Post ran an obvious-became-evident exposé:  “As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test.”

These days, COVID testing capacity is said to be exceeding demand in some (many?) locales.

image

So, why aren’t people rushing to get tested?

Read the rest of this entry »

May 21: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 21, 2020

1,385 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,392

381 NY+NJ+CT 28% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
94,918
Worldometer
43,092 NY+NJ+CT 45% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 21: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 21, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 94,918 288 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 43,092  45% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 75,699 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 492 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 109 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Would I take HCQ like Trump is doing?

May 20, 2020

Yesterday, I gave readers a gut-check question:

If an elderly loved one was hospitalized with COVID, would you advise them to try the HCQ-combo, or tell them avoid it like the plague?

I got an interesting challenge question from a reader:

Prof. Homa, My gut question for you, with all the hypothesis and analysis, are you comfortable taking the combination as a preventive measure like Mr. President is doing?

image

It’s a good question. One that made me think harder about the HCQ issue.

Here’s my answer…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 20, 2020

1,548 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,444

334 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
93,533
Worldometer
42,711 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 20: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 20, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 93,553 283 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,711  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 74,759 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 486 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 107 Deaths/Million
     Bottom 39: Increasing share of DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image_thumb[2]

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYU: Hydroxychloroquine cocktail cuts death rate 44%

May 19, 2020

Oh yeah, and “Irresponsible” Trump is taking it.
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Remember hydroxychloroquine?

It’s what the MSM likes to refer to as “an anti-malarial drug that is unproven as beneficial treating Covid-19 patients.”

It had kinda fallen off the radar, but it’s back.

President Trump caused a stir yesterday when he casually mentioned that he started taking HCQ as a preventative medicine.

The gathered reporters gasped: “Irresponsible!”

image

Before getting judgmental,  consider these underreported promising developments …

Read the rest of this entry »

May 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 19, 2020

1,007 Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

278 NY+NJ+CT 32% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
91,985
Worldometer
42,377 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
143,357 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 3,683 5/18

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 19: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 19, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 91,985  279 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,377  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 73,375 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 479 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 104 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

COVID’s Impact: Geographically concentrated in only 30 US counties…

May 18, 2020

Great analysis from the researchers at the Heritage Foundation
=============
 

The spread of COVID-19 has been extremely concentrated in a small number of states — and among a small number of counties within all states.

To date, 10 states accounted for nearly 75% of all deaths (but only 52% of the population).

Together, New York and New Jersey (9% of the U.S. population) alone account for 44% of total COVID-19 deaths.

image

And, the  COVID-19 impact is even more concentrated than the state-level data indicate…

Read the rest of this entry »

May-18 Key NATIONAL Data

May 18, 2020

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends, catching-up” on Mon & Tues

865 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,456 

366 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total

image_thumb2

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,975
Worldometer
42,099 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 18: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 18, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,978  276 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 42,099  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,963 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 474 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 102 Deaths/Million

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

George Carlin: How to build a strong immune system.

May 17, 2020

WARNING: Adult content – profanity-laced, politically-incorrect, totally insensitive to the current COVID situation and likely to offend practically everyone.  Do not play in earshot of children, co-workers or sensitive adults. Hit delete now if you self-classify in that latter group.

In other word, this is classic George Carlin.

His prescription for building a strong immune system to battle germ attacks is a bit contrary to current conventional wisdom and CDC guidance.

click to view (if you dare <= you’ve been warned!)
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Our slant on last week’s COVID-19 news

May 17, 2020

Just in case you might have missed
=============

Time to catch up on your HomaFiles reading:

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”
… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…
Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?
Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus…

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”
More deaths than expected … daily deaths on a plateau.

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 17, 2020

1,606 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,439

336 NY+NJ+CT 21% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
90,113
Worldometer
41,733 NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 17: C-19 STATES Data

May 17, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 90,113  273 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,733  46% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 72,286 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 470 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • Bottom 39 Average = 101 Deaths/Million
    Bottom 39 Trend 4.2% > Top 12 1.2%

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 16, 2020

1,595 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,413

418 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
88,507
Worldometer
41,009 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 16: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 16, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 88,507  268 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 41,009  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 71,034 80% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 462 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 99Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,911  +45

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

“I was for hydroxychloroquine before I was against it”

May 15, 2020

… and other reasons that I couldn’t take the Dr. Bright seriously.
==============

Let, start at the beginning…

The “courageous” whistleblower walked into the hearing flanked by the same uber-partisan lawyers who represented Dr. Christine Blasey Ford in her failed attempt to torch Bret Kavanaugh.

image

I guess the signaling was supposed to be hash-tag “I Believe Him” but, at least for me, it signaled “Here We Go Again”

OK, that may be partisan-petty, so let’s get specific …

Read the rest of this entry »

May 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 15, 2020

1,740 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,426

449 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
86,912
Worldometer
40,591 NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 15: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 15, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 86,912  263 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 40,591  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 69,935 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 455 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 96 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,866  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Data: Over half of C-19 deaths in nursing homes.

May 14, 2020

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and then taking all-out action to contain the carnage among the most vulnerable subset of the population.

How bad has the carnage been?

According to an analysis compiled by the CTUP(The Committee to Unleash Prosperity):

Over half of C-19 deaths have befallen residents of nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities … resulting in the death of over 2% of of the population in those facilities.

image
See the statistical  note at the end of this post.

The percentage of reported long-term care (LTC) deaths ranges from a low of 20% in Nevada to over 80% in Minnesota.

Note: For convenience, we lump nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities into a single category that we refer to as “LTC”

The reported death rate (ratio of LTC deaths to the LTC population) is below 1/2% in about 1/2 of reporting states, but ranges as a high as 11.4% in New Jersey.

Here’s more state-by-state detail…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 14, 2020

1,747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,482 
> 3-day average 1,462

385 NY+NJ+CT 22% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
84,172
Worldometer
40,142  NY+NJ+CT 47% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 84,059

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 14: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 14, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 85,172 258 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 40,142  47% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 68,704 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 447 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 93 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,809  +53

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Oh my, what a disappointing Senate hearing…

May 13, 2020

Are these scientists just making things up as they go along?
=============

I watched or listened to practically all of yesterday’s Senate hearing on the coronavirus.

Bottom line: My heart sank faster and deeper than the real-time stock market ticker.

On balance, I thought the  the Senators did a pretty good job.  With a couple of exceptions (think: Sanders and Warren), there was less political venom than I expected and more reasonable, relevant questions.

Unfortunately, the format worked against the hearing.

Just like it’s easier to say mean things to someone in an email than it is to mean-speak face-to-face. the virtual-remote environment minimized “constructive tension” between the participants.

And, as usual, the 5-minute time limits precluded deep-probe closure on any issue.

For example, Sen. Romney had an exchange that caught my attention:

image

Time ran out before Romney could ask the logical follow-up question:

“Well, Dr. Fauci, then who is responsible?”

My bet: The answer would certainly have been revealing … one way or another.

Let me explain…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 13, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,630 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,593 
> 3-day average 1,129

405 NY+NJ+CT 25% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
83,425
Worldometer
39,757  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 82,339

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
147,040 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 9,856 on 5/12

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 13: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 13, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • Total US Deaths = 83,425 253 per Million
  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,755  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 67,430 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 438 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 91 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,756  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

COVID: How about squeezing the data and doing some old-fashioned profiling?

May 12, 2020

Hint: Go back and ask people who have been tested or hospitalized.

=============

Finally, Gov. Cuomo has directed hospitals to ask new coronavirus patients for some demographic and behavioral information such as their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood.

Cuomo says the early results from this info-seeking initiative and the state’s antibody testing have provided  some confirming data and some “shocking” revelations, including:

  • 96% had an underlying health condition (a.k.a. comorbidity factors); new admissions were predominantly minority, predominantly older; 22% came from nursing homes.
  • 66% of NY’s new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis … only 17% were employed.
  • The majority of recently hospitalized coronavirus patients are people who say that they have followed the precaution of staying home.
  • Only 4% in New York City said they had been taking public transportation.
  • A low percentage of new hospitalizations were essential employees — nurses, doctors, transit workers, grocery store employees — who were getting sick at work.
  • Sources: WSJ   NY Daily News

Of course, these sample sizes are small and the results may or may not be projectably true.

The point is that “they” should have been recording this sort of information from the get-go.

The plan is to start asking a battery of questions when people are tested for the coronavirus (both diagnostic and antibody testing, I assume) and when they’re admitted to the hospital.

That’s fine, but I’ve got a better idea…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 12, 2020

Headline: Downward trend appears real.

1,008 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 1,696 
> 3-day average 1,060

309 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
81,795
Worldometer
39,352  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 80,378

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

=============
click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 12: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 12, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,352  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 66,388 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 432 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 87 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,683  +39

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Survey: Some changes will endure post-coronavirus….

May 11, 2020

USC’s Annenberg School of Communications surveyed Americans about how they are living and coping with the rapid changes wrought by the pandemic … and which changes will endure. Source

image

Based on the survey’s findings, there are at least 10 areas where the outbreak is likely to have permanent effects on our personal, professional and cultural lives.

Here’s their list…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 11: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 11, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 39,043  48% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,678 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 427 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 86 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,644  +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 11: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 11, 2020

Headline: Here’s hoping, but numbers look too good to be true.

750 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,741 
> 3-day trend 1,286

Caution: Under-reporting has been common on weekends with “catch-up” on Mon & Tues

222 NY+NJ+CT 30% of US Total
NY = 41 <= looks suspicious 

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
80,787
Worldometer
39,043  NY+NJ+CT 48% of US Total

Note: JHU reporting 79,528

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
137,184 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 2,709 on 5/10

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click to see Key STATES Data and  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

Gottleib: “We thought we’d be in a better place by now”

May 10, 2020

More deaths than expected … new deaths on a plateau.
==============
Dr. Scott Gottleib is a former head of the FDA.

My view: He usually makes a lot of sense, so I listen to him.

In a WSJ columns, Gottleib observes:

Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill.

Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread.

But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.

And, there’s more to the story…

Read the rest of this entry »

Birx: “Nothing from the CDC that I can trust”

May 10, 2020

Whoa, Nellie …
=============

According to the Washington Post

During a task force meeting this week, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx and Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC:

Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data.

They worried (that he CDC system) was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent.

There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx said.

The flare-up came two days after it was reported that an internal government model, based on data from the CDC (via Johns Hopkins), projected the daily death count would rise to 3,000 by the end of May.

Birx said in a statement:

Mortality is slowly declining each day.

To keep with this trend, it is essential that seniors and those with comorbidities shelter in place and that .

The Post also reports:

Whereas initially the task force found itself scrambling to deploy a whack-a-mole management effort, dealing with regular crises as they emerged — from coronavirus-infected cruise ships to the urgent need for ventilators — the administration now intends to shift its focus to what is says is more strategic longer-term planning.

May 10: Key NATIONAL Data

May 10, 2020

1,422 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,798 
> 3-day trend 1,746

376 NY+NJ+CT 26% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
80,037
Worldometer
38,821  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 10: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 10, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,821  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,112 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 423 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 85 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,614  +54

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

So, why is the stock market doing so well?

May 9, 2020

WSJ says there are 5 reasons.
=============

This is an awkward post to write.

As much of the country is struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table, today I’m channeling a WSJ explanatory on why the stock market is doing as well as it is (down 9% from Feb. high, but up 30% from March low)

image

Putting my legacy of Catholic guilt aside… The WSJ offers 5 reasons:

  1. Counting on a quick economic rebound
  2. Big tech stocks are doing well during the crisis
  3. Optimism high for corporate earnings in 2021
  4. Rear of missing the upside
  5. The Fed is printing money.

Here are some supporting details & tidbits…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 9, 2020

1,697 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,834 
> 3-day trend 2,113

449 NY+NJ+CT 27% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
78,615
Worldometer
38,445  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 9: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 9, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,445  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 64,028 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 416 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 83 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,560  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?