Archive for the ‘2022 election’ Category

Will somebody please pass the crow?

November 18, 2022

About the election polls

A week or so before the election, the NY Tomes published a poll in conjunction with its polling partner Sienna University.

The poll’s results were contrary to the red wave being reported by other big name polling outfits.

Like many, I dismissed the NYT-Sienna Poll as an outlier… after all, it was the Dem partisan New York Times.

But, now that most of the dust has settled: The NYT-Sienna got all 4 of the most closely watched Senate races right.

Note: On the 5th — Ohio — NYT-Sienna pegged the race as a dead heat.

Not kinda right …  nearly perfectly right!

Their share of votes predictions were practically dead on the final results.


How does that compare to the other top name polling services?

> The RCP’s poll-of-polls and Silver 535 were close in Ohio … had Kelly in AZ … but mis-called winners in NV, GA and PA

> Trafalgar … was closest to the pin on Ohio … but miscalled winners in NV, GA, PA and AZ … OUCH!

> NYT-Sienna … called ties in OH and NV   … but were spot on the other 3 races.


My take: The NYT-Sienna poll was the clear winner this round.

Time to eat, so pass the crow to the other pollsters … and me, for buying into Trafalgar and the “wisdom of the (pollster) crowd”.

Oh well… better luck next time, right?

The right track – wrong track paradox.

November 14, 2022

A vast majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, but a slim majority voted for the status quo.

As one political pundit put it:

In my view, the strangest thing about the midterm election is how rigidly it preserved the status quo.

At a time when something like 70% of voters say we are on the wrong track, and explosive issues like crime, the cost of living and illegal immigration are roiling the electorate, voters nevertheless turned out for incumbents.

Are voters really that attached to the status quo?

Let’s drill down on that question…

In the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, much was made of right track – wrong track polling.


In round numbers, over 2/3s of Americans think the country is on the wrong track … the other 1/3 think the country is on the right track or have no opinion one way or another.

From that data alone, it was reasonable to expect that the election would usher in sweeping change.

But it didn’t.

How can that be?

Again, just isolating on the right track – wrong track measurement, the answer is simple…

Americans may agree that the country is on the right track … but they don’t agree on what constitutes a right track.

From 50,000 feet, it may be that half of the wrong tracker think that the current track is too progressive … and half think that the current direction is too conservative.

For arguments sake, let’s assume that, objectively, the current status quo leans left.

Add the “too conservative” wrong trackers to the “right trackers” and, bingo, you have a voting majority.

Simple arithmetic, right?

So, why did so many pollsters and political pundits fall victim to the right track – wrong track paradox?

Viva la Gridlock!

November 11, 2022

The stock market soared yesterday because…

First, the numbers…

Yesterday, the stock market soared … the S&P was up 5.54% to 3,956.


Let’s put that number in perspective…

The S&P at 3,956 is:

  • 3% higher than when Biden was inaugurated (01/20/21 S&P = 3,841)
  • 17% lower than the sugar-high market peak (12/27/21 S&P = 4,766)
  • 11% higher than the Biden era market trough (10/12/22 S&P = 3,577)

To summarize, the market today is about where it was when Biden was inaugurated … has recovered about 1/3 of the 25% peak to trough decline … and is up 11% from the trough.

So, you can either feel bad (still down 17% from the peak) … or good (recovered about 1/3 of the peak to trough decline).


For today, let’s focus on the positive … yesterday’s bounce … and ask “why?”

There were 2 near-simultaneous events yesterday morning.

  1. The reported inflation rate for October was down to 7.7%
  2. Media vote counting arbiters conceded that the GOP was on track to gain control of the Congress.


My take:

The 7.7% is statistically insignificant from the recent inflation running rate … it’s likely month-to-month noise … and likely driven by a decline in residential housing prices … which is, perhaps, a blessing for renters, but a curse to homeowners (whose home is a big chunk of their net worth).

So, I don’t place much weight on the 7.7% inflation rate driving the market gain.


I think the market gain was driven by the near certainty that the GOP will control Congress and we’ll have split government gridlock for the next 2 years … and, at least, an end to reckless government spending.

Here’s hoping…

Election turnout: Gallup nailed it!

November 10, 2022

One chart provides some clues into the election results

The below chart hit my email box early on election day.


I glanced at it … then dismissed it as an outlier to the polls and punditry on turnout.

Most said sky high turnout, especially among fed-up Republicans and inflation drained budgeters.

And, the “generic ballot” gave the edge to the GOP

Getting to the point…


Gallup queried folks on whether they were more or less enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterm election compared to prior midterms.

As the above chart illustrates:

In 2010, 2014 and 2018 … GOP voting enthusiasm was very high … and higher than Dem enthusiasm

But, for this year:

  • GOP voting enthusiasm dropped from 72% in 2018 to 49% this year … a whopping 23 percentage point drop.
  • Dem voting enthusiasm also dropped …  from 69% % in 2018 to 57% this year … but, 8 percentage points higher than GOP voting enthusiasm


According to an AP / WaPo analysis, turnout (as a percentage of eligible voters) did, in fact, drop this year … down to about 48%


And, if the mix conforms to the Gallup voting enthusiasm mix, it suggests that proportionately more Dems were “enthusiastic” and more of them turned out to vote than GOPs.

If the actual turnout numbers confirm that conclusion, it’ll explain a lot about the election results … and, Gallup should get credit for spotting the marker.

Yipes! GOP snaring defeat from the jaws of victory?

November 9, 2022

Hoping for gridlock to stop my IRA bleeding.

I gotta admit, I thought inflation, crime, energy independence and strong borders were a strong hand.

But apparently, not strong enough to win big against abortion, climate control and open borders.

My early morning takeaways:

> So much for the polls, betting markets and political pundits … red wave dissipated somewhere off-shore.

> Kudos to my friends who have already moved to Florida … land of sunshine, low taxes, effective government and common sense.

> Obama got his man …Pennsylvanians should feel so proud.


> Laxalt and Johnson should eek out victories to keep the Senate 50-50 … as of 6 a.m.


> Best GOP Senate scenario is that Herschel wins a run-off, but that race has a groundhog day feel to it … and a Walker win would crown Romney as the new Manchin (ouch).

> Pundits are still saying that GOP will eek out a Congressional majority and we’ll see legislative gridlock and a stream of entertaining investigation.

> If the pundits are wrong again, my (our) IRAs, 401Ks and 528s are screwed … batten down the hatches, folks ,,, stock up on Chef Boyardee


P.S. Looks like a vindicated Biden against a surging DeSantis in 2024.

The dogs just aren’t eating the dogfood…

November 8, 2022

A left-leaning think tank blisters Dems with a data-rich pre-mortem.

Pre-election, many Dem pundits started lamenting dumb voters (only on the right, of course) and bad messaging … failing to tout touting Biden’s accomplishments and failing to convince the unwashed that climate change and “democracy” are on the ballot, not Biden, inflation, crime or illegal immigration.

That is, until Third Way — a center-left think tank backed by some of the biggest names in Democratic politics — sounded an alarm about deep-seated party flaws. Source

Channeling the Third Way report, Axios outlined the “brutal bill of particulars”.

  • “Democrats are underwater on issues voters name as their highest priorities, including the economy, immigration, and crime.”
  • “While Democrats maintain a lead on handling certain issues like abortion and climate change, voters also rank these issues as lower priorities.”
  • “Voters question whether the party shares essential values like patriotism and the importance of hard work. … Only 43% of voters say Democrats value hard work, compared to 58% for Republicans.”
  • “Even in the areas where Democrats are trusted more [including education], it is not clear that voters are sold on Democrats’ approach or ability to get things done.”
  • Democrats are benefitting from a perception among voters that Republicans are extreme, but…  voters think Democrats are extreme as well.”


Bottom line: Third Way concludes that Democrats are “out of touch on priorities, ideology and values”.

Other than that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?


P.S. The entire Third Way report — loaded with polling results and analysis — is worth reading.

Key Senate Races: Game Day Bets & Odds

November 8, 2022

Election Day morning…

The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market, Election Betting Odds and Silver 535 are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line:

  • Vance is a prohibitive favorite in Ohio
  • All 3 sources agree that Walker is an odds-on favorite in Georgia
  • Silver calls Nevada a toss-up … others call Laxalt an odds-on favorite
  • Silver has Oz a slight favorite in Pennsylvania … others have Oz a stronger odds-on favorite
  • Toss-up in Arizona …Silver has Kelly as a slight favorite … others have Masters a slight favorite … call it a toss-up

It’s Silver against the bets & odds….


Key Senate Races: Final-Final Polls

November 8, 2022

What the polls are saying on election morning…

OK, I jumped the gun yesterday when I recapped what I thought were final polls.

A couple of pollsters reported “fresh” polls yesterday and overnight.

So, today — election day — let’s re-recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

  • Trafalgar calling all 5 (OH, NV, GA, PA, AZ) for GOP
  • Silver calling AZ for Kelly … other 4 for GOP
  • RCP final: Toss-up in AZ … other 4 for GOP
  • NYT / Sienna on another planet <= no surprise
  • Runaway for Vance in Ohio
  • Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
  • Slight lean to Walker in GA … Kemp’s coattails … UGA football fever – Herschel put the Dawgs on the map!
  • Slight lean to Oz in PA ,,, Silver flipped from lean Fetterman to lean Oz … Oz pitching Biden’s “close all coal plants” blurt
  • Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona … only Trafalgar calling it for Masters … others may be under-estimating Lake’s coattails


Key Senate Races: Near-Final Scorecard

November 7, 2022

What the polls are saying…
Yesterday, we recapped the betting markets and odds.

Today — the day before the mid-term elections — let’s recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

  • Runaway for Vance in Ohio
  • Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
  • Slight lean to Walker in GA (Kemp’s coattails, UGA football is the talk of the state and Hershel’s a UGA football icon)
  • Pollster duel in PA: Trafalgar has Oz up by 2; Silver has Fetterman winning … in rallies Trump drew an overflow of 17,000; Obama only filled half of a 10,000 seat arena
  • Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona


Key Senate Races: Odds & Bets

November 6, 2022

Sunday … 2 days until election.

The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market and Election Betting Odds are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a widening GOP lead in Nevada, approaching runaway status … a statistically significant and widening GOP lead in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.



Specifics from Election Betting Odds






Still more: Some people just shouldn’t vote!

November 6, 2022

The late humorist Andy Rooney cut to the chase.

Let’s recap…

A couple of days ago, we posted “Some people just shouldn’t vote!” … triggered by a WSJ opinion piece by Peggy Noonan that argued:

If you’re not serious and don’t take our political life seriously … stay home and vote in good conscience next time.

We bolstered Noonan’s piece with an excerpt from GU Prof. Jason Brennan’s book The Ethics of Voting:

All adult citizens have the right to vote … but that they shouldn’t exercise that right unless they are informed, rational, and aiming for the common good.

Yesterday, we posted a contrary point-of-view expressed by former President Obama:

You’ve got to find Cousin Pookie, he’s sitting on the couch right now watching football.

He hasn’t voted in the last 5 elections.

You’ve got to grab him and tell him to go vote.


Let’s consider one more opinion on the subject.

Back in 1984, Andy Rooney — a culture observer & humorist — presented his point-of-view on 60 Minutes.

Rooney’s take on voting:

“If you don’t know anything about anything refrain from voting”

More specifically, Rooney argued:

You hear a lot of talk about getting out the vote these days.

Local politicians are even using government workers to try and register welfare recipients, for example, and several of the big corporations are pretending they’re “Mister Nice Guy” by telling everyone to get out and vote in commercials. .

The companies are trying to sound patriotic and all-American.

Patriotism is selling very well this year. I don’t want to sound un-American or as though I don’t believe in democracy, but I’d prefer to leave a sleeping vote lie.

If someone has a natural inclination not to vote, because he or she isn’t interested, that’s OK with me.

I don’t want my vote cancelled out by some numbskull who hasn’t thought about the issues.

I hate the thought of having anyone dumber than I am vote.

In Russia, more than 90 percent of the people vote.

Does this make Russia a nice country to live in?

In the United States, not many more than half the eligible voters go to the polls in an election year.

That’s OK with me, too.

My advice to you is this: If you don’t know anything about anything, please stay right where you are.

Don’t get out and vote.

Rooney is probably turning over in his grave these days.

P.S. Unfortunately, CBS moved the video clip behind the Paramount+ pay wall … too bad … it’s a classic the way Rooney delivers the message.

More: Some people just shouldn’t vote!

November 5, 2022

Former President Obama begs to differ…

Yesterday’s we posted “Some people just shouldn’t vote!” … triggered by a WSJ opinion piece by Peggy Noonan that argued:

If you’re not serious and don’t take our political life seriously … stay home and vote in good conscience next time.

We bolstered Noonan’s piece with an excerpt from GU Prof. Jason Brennan’s book The Ethics of Voting:

All adult citizens have the right to vote … but that they shouldn’t exercise that right unless they are informed, rational, and aiming for the common good.


Well, a couple of loyal readers reminded me of a classic contrary point-of-view on the subject.

Raise your hand if you remember, remember former President Obama “Cousin Pookie” get-out-the vote rally cry.

You’ve got to grab your friends. You’ve got to grab your co-workers.

You know, don’t just get the folks you know are going to vote.

You’ve got to find Cousin Pookie, he’s sitting on the couch right now watching football.

He hasn’t voted in the last 5 elections.

You’ve got to grab him and tell him to go vote.

I didn’t say it … Obama did:

click to view video clip

Take that Ms. Noonan…

Remember Scott Brown?

November 5, 2022

John Fetterman sure does!

Flashback to 2010 …

Obama had a filibuster-proof 60-40 Senate.

Then, Teddy Kennedy died, making it 59-40 with a vacancy.

No problem for Obama … quick special election in Dem-heavy Massachusetts would restore 60-40.

But, a stud with a pick-up truck got the GOP nomination. His name: Scott Brown.

Brown had sex-appealing charisma and an aura of “authenticity”.

Did I mention that he was a Republican?

Sure, he talked some about GOP-leaning positions, but his bumper sticker simply read:

Scott Brown #41

Not his jersey number, his potential position a filibuster restorer.

It worked!



Fast forward to today…

Have you caught any of Fetterman’s brief and “to the point” campaign pitches?

Post-stroke, he has a tough time articulating his policy positions.

That’s probably a good thing since his signature priorities are freeing criminals from prisons and opening public heroin injection sites … neither of which is wildly popular these days.

But, he has a strong plus factor for Biden-loving Democrats:

“I’ll be the 51st Democrat in the Senate”.

As long as he can reliably pull the Senate voting lever, nothing else really matters, does it?

Against all odds, it worked for Scott Brown.

Might work for John Fetterman.

Perish the thought…

Some people just shouldn’t vote!

November 4, 2022

Sounds blasphemous, doesn’t it?

In today’s WSJ, the normally sober-minded Peggy Noonan opined:

If you’re serious and take our political life seriously, please go Tuesday to the polls.

And if not, admit it to yourself and try to become a better citizen so you can vote in good conscience next time.

A provocative thought, Peggy …  but not exactly original.

Let’s do a HomaFiles flashback

First posted Sept. 9, 2012

Every election cycle, I scratch my head and wonder blasphemously whether “one man, one vote” makes sense.

Surveys routinely reveal that a majority of Americans have marginal knowledge of government, politics, and political issues.

Try this: ask folks to explain the difference between the Federal deficit and the Federal debt … ask them where the money that funds, say unemployment benefits, comes from.

Jason Brennan is a rare breed … a libertarian business prof at Georgetown.

His research is at the nexus of ethics and politics.

He wrote an insightful book called The Ethics of Voting that I consider a classic.


The essence of Jason’s argument is that all adult citizens have the right to vote … but that they shouldn’t exercise that right unless they are informed, rational, and aiming for the common good.

Let’s drill down on that conclusion…


More specifically, Prof. Brennan argues:

“If a citizen has a right to vote, this means at minimum that she ought to be permitted to vote — no one should stop her or deprive her of the vote — and that her vote must be counted.

However, if citizens do vote, they must vote well, on the basis of sound evidence for what is likely to promote the common good.

That is, in general, they must vote for the common good rather than for narrow self-interest.

Citizens who lack the motive, knowledge, rationality, or ability to vote well should abstain from voting.

Some voters are well informed about what candidates are likely to do.

They know what policies candidates endorse and whether the candidates are sincere.

They know the track records and general trends of different political parties.

Other voters are ignorant of such things.

Another way voters vary is in their degree of rationality .

Some voters are scrupulously rational, while others are irrational.

Some have patently stupid beliefs.

“[Some citizens] are politically engaged, but they are nonetheless often ignorant of or misinformed about the relevant facts or, worse, are simply irrational.

Though they intend to promote the common good, they all too often lack sufficient evidence to justify the policies they advocate.

When they do vote, I argue, they pollute democracy with their votes and make it more likely that we will have to suffer from bad governance.”

* * * * *

Ken’s Take: An interesting perspective that has been constantly on my mind during this election cycle.

At least read the sample chapter … book is available in paperback at Amazon


Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

Joe’s giving me an 8.7% raise!

November 3, 2022

And, he rushed to tell me before the mid-term elections.

Here’s an email that I got from the Social Security Administration on Oct.15:


A couple of takeaways from the email…

  1. The 8.7% COLA (cost of living increase) is the Fed government’s inflation estimate … required to keep SS recipients whole 2023.
  2. The notice was sent to Social Security recipients on October 15.

What’s interesting about the date?

> Last year, we SS recipients were notified of the 2022 cost-of-living increase (5.9%) on December 3, 2021.


> Two years ago, we SS recipients were notified of the 2021 cost-of-living increase (1.3%) on November 3, 2020.


Let’s recap …

> Based on Trump’s last year in office (2020), the inflation-based COL increase for 2021 was 1.7%

> Based on Biden’s first year in office (2021), the inflation-based COL increase for 2022 was 5.9%

> Based on Biden’s 2nd year in office (2022 YTD), the inflation- based COL increase for 2023 is 8.7%.


But, that’s not really new news, right?

What’s more interesting (to me) is the timing of the announcements.

The past years’ practice had been to notify SS recipients of their COLA adjustments (for the next year) in late November or early December.

This year the COLA notification was sent on October 15 … a couple of weeks before the mid-terms.


Call me skeptical.

I can just envision Biden screaming:

“I protected your Social Security benefits against inflation … and, the Republicans want to take them away.”

That’ll be me screaming when he reads the words from the teleprompter …


We’ve gotta take a told-ya-so lap on this one…

We alerted loyal readers to this probable Biden scam way back on Oct 17, 2022 at 06:45am

Yes, that was me screaming Wed. night…

Key Senate Races: Odds & Bets

November 3, 2022

OK, let’s see what the betting markets are now saying with less than a week to go…

The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market and Election Betting Odds are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a widening GOP lead in Nevada to near-runaway status … statistically significant but narrowing GOP lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia … a toss-up in Arizona.



For comparison, here’s what the most favorable Dem-leaning NY Times poll is saying:


Both can’t be right.

My inclination: Follow the money!

Key Races: Election Odds & Bets

October 31, 2022

As I’ve said before, when I’m looking for near real time, “skin in the game”, quantitative assessment of elections, I go to the PredictIt betting market and, more recently, Election Betting Odds (which tries to incorporate the polls and other information).

The chart below summarizes what they’re saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a statistically significant GOP lead in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia … a slight GOP lead in Arizona.



P.S. Election Betting Odds has a very cool interactive map … you can hover over a state to see its specific numbers.


Disclosure: Long, long ago, I worked on the business staff of The Daily Princetonian with John Stossel — one of the authors of the Election Betting Odds site

The Oz – Fetterman debate …

October 26, 2022

One chart says it all !

You can find lots of commentary re: Fetterman’s disastrous  debate performance…

When I’m looking for near instantaneous, “skin in the game”, quantitative calibrating reaction to events, I go to the PredictIt betting market.

Prior to last night’s debate, Oz and Fetterman were roughly tied in the polls and the betting markets.

But, during and immediately after the debate, the odds shifted big time … to Oz 65 – 39.



GOP surging in “generic ballot”.

October 24, 2022

Here’s the best explanation that I’ve found.

First, the data…

According to the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls, the most recent weeks have been very, very good for the GOP.

One indicator: the generic congressional ballot which asks: Are you more likely to vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress?

The GOP held a big lead in the Spring, then the Dems closed the gap after SCOTUS’ Dodds decision.

But, look at the recent GOP surge (the yellow circle below).

Source: RCP

What’s going on?

The most most compelling explanation that I’ve come across is from conservative pundit Erick Erickson.

Erickson says:

Having run campaigns, covered campaigns, etc. I’ve observed a thing that happens in wave years.

About 3 weeks out, everything just shifts.

The undecideds begin to break.

They all break the same way.

The media rushes to capture it, which reinforces it.

Specifically, in years of a Republican wave, the media spends most of the time avoiding or downplaying the issues that the GOP is talking about.

Then, one day, the switch flips and those issues are all that anyone talks about.

In the past couple of weeks, CBS, MSNBC, ABC, CNN have all started airing voters who say crime is bad and getting worse.

Voters on CNN in PA are talking about how Fetterman has too many issues for their vote.

MSNBC talked to black voters in Philly overrun with crime.

CBS is talking to voters in AZ who are upset about crime, the economy and the border.

Once the media starts reporting instead of opinionating, the tide starts to roll in.  Source

Makes sense to me…

OMG: Will Romney be taking the mantle from Manchin?

October 20, 2022

A GOP Senate majority may not be bullet-proof.

Another case of the obvious becoming evident …

I was scanning an article on election predictions and was stopped in my tracks by an incidental comment:

RealClearPolitics predicts that Republicans will win five of the seven toss-ups, giving them 52 seats (and a Romney-proof majority).

What did he say?

Oh no, is it possible that Mitt Romney will be the legislative decision-maker for the next 2 years.

Manchin loved the spotlight and did slow some progressive steam-rolling … but when the big money chips were on the table, he caved… e.g. he got totally rolled on the $350 billion climate control bill (nee Inflation Reduction Act).

I’d been assuming that a GOP majority  would gridlock the Senate — something that I consider a good thing. Make that “a very good thing”.

But, much like Manchin couldn’t be counted on, for sure, the GOP can’t count on Romney.

He’ll bask in the  limelight and will position himself as the adult in the Senate …. by siding with the Dems on pivotal issues to demonstrate his bi-partisanship.


To position himself to compete against Trump (maybe) and DeSantis (certainly) for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024.


From the frying pan into the fire…

Polling: Focus on Likely voters, “top boxes” and Independents.

September 26, 2022

They are the best predictors…

I’m a fan of the Trafalgar Group’s polls.

Admittedly, Trafalgar leans right, but I like that:

> They screen for “likely voters’ … not the less predictable “registered voters” who may lack voting “enthusiasm”.

> They provide “top box data” … that is, data isolating highly predictive “strong” feelings

Why this is significant?

Many market researchers argue for the ”top box effect”.

That is, they think that the answers given by respondents who feel “strongly” on a question — one way or the other — have higher predictive value than the answers from respondents who may lean in a direction but don’t have particularly strong feelings.

The difference between the scores from respondents who are “strongly favorable’ and those who are “strongly unfavorable” is sometimes referred to as the “net promoter index”.

For more detail, see the HBR classic: The One Number that You Need to Grow.

> They separate responses by party affiliation … providing a way to check the “mix” of Dems, GOPs and Independents … and allows a focused look at independents who are “swing voters” and are less likely to cast party-lemming votes.


OK, so what do Trafalgar’s most recent polls say?

First, let’s dissect Biden’s overall approval numbers:

  • Overall, Biden’s total approval is 15.5 percentage points underwater … 54.8% disapprove to 39.3% approve
  • Only 54% of Biden’s total approvers feel strongly that he is doing a good job, but 92% of his disapprovers are strong disapprovers.
  • So, Biden’s “top box” favorability measure, is underwater by 29.1 percentage points … 50.2% unfavorable to 21.1% favorable



It gets more interesting when we drill down by party identification:

  • Less than half of Democrats (43.7%) strongly approve of the job that Biden is doing (Row 1, Column a)
  • 80% of Republicans disapprove strongly of the job that Biden is doing (Row 6, Column c)
  • Perhaps most important, a majority of Independents (52%) disapprove strongly of the job that Biden is doing (Row 6, Column b) … putting Biden 35.7% underwater on strong approval (Row 10, Column b)


Draw your own conclusions re: election implications.


While we’re at it …

Trafalgar has the GOP up by 5.7 percentage points on the “generic Congressional ballot” (47.2% to 42.2%).

For comparison, the left-leaning WaPo-ABC poll concludes:

In the midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47-46 percent between the Republican and the Democratic candidate (on the generic Congressional ballot).

A likely voter model has a 51-46 percent Republican-Democratic split (5 percentage point).

So, both a left-leaning and a right-leaning poll agree that — when the metric is likely voters — the GOP lead on the generic Congressional ballot is about 5 points. 

Again, draw your own conclusions re: election implications.

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