The Homa Files

What the polls are saying on election morning…
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OK, I jumped the gun yesterday when I recapped what I thought were final polls.

A couple of pollsters reported “fresh” polls yesterday and overnight.

So, today — election day — let’s re-recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

• Trafalgar calling all 5 (OH, NV, GA, PA, AZ) for GOP
• Silver calling AZ for Kelly … other 4 for GOP
• RCP final: Toss-up in AZ … other 4 for GOP
• NYT / Sienna on another planet <= no surprise
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• Runaway for Vance in Ohio
• Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
• Slight lean to Walker in GA … Kemp’s coattails … UGA football fever – Herschel put the Dawgs on the map!
• Slight lean to Oz in PA ,,, Silver flipped from lean Fetterman to lean Oz … Oz pitching Biden’s “close all coal plants” blurt
• Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona … only Trafalgar calling it for Masters … others may be under-estimating Lake’s coattails

This entry was posted on November 8, 2022 at 6:00 am and is filed under 2022 election, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.