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Will somebody please pass the crow?

November 18, 2022

About the election polls…
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A week or so before the election, the NY Tomes published a poll in conjunction with its polling partner Sienna University.

The poll’s results were contrary to the red wave being reported by other big name polling outfits.

Like many, I dismissed the NYT-Sienna Poll as an outlier… after all, it was the Dem partisan New York Times.

But, now that most of the dust has settled: The NYT-Sienna got all 4 of the most closely watched Senate races right.

Note: On the 5th — Ohio — NYT-Sienna pegged the race as a dead heat.

Not kinda right … nearly perfectly right!

Their share of votes predictions were practically dead on the final results.

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How does that compare to the other top name polling services?

> The RCP’s poll-of-polls and Silver 535 were close in Ohio … had Kelly in AZ … but mis-called winners in NV, GA and PA

> Trafalgar … was closest to the pin on Ohio … but miscalled winners in NV, GA, PA and AZ … OUCH!

> NYT-Sienna … called ties in OH and NV … but were spot on the other 3 races.

My take: The NYT-Sienna poll was the clear winner this round.

Time to eat, so pass the crow to the other pollsters … and me, for buying into Trafalgar and the “wisdom of the (pollster) crowd”.

Oh well… better luck next time, right?

Posted in 2022 election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

The right track – wrong track paradox.

November 14, 2022

A vast majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, but a slim majority voted for the status quo.

As one political pundit put it:

In my view, the strangest thing about the midterm election is how rigidly it preserved the status quo.

At a time when something like 70% of voters say we are on the wrong track, and explosive issues like crime, the cost of living and illegal immigration are roiling the electorate, voters nevertheless turned out for incumbents.

Are voters really that attached to the status quo?

Let’s drill down on that question…
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In the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, much was made of right track – wrong track polling.

In round numbers, over 2/3s of Americans think the country is on the wrong track … the other 1/3 think the country is on the right track or have no opinion one way or another.

From that data alone, it was reasonable to expect that the election would usher in sweeping change.

But it didn’t.

How can that be?

Again, just isolating on the right track – wrong track measurement, the answer is simple…

Americans may agree that the country is on the right track … but they don’t agree on what constitutes a right track.

From 50,000 feet, it may be that half of the wrong tracker think that the current track is too progressive … and half think that the current direction is too conservative.

For arguments sake, let’s assume that, objectively, the current status quo leans left.

Add the “too conservative” wrong trackers to the “right trackers” and, bingo, you have a voting majority.

Simple arithmetic, right?

So, why did so many pollsters and political pundits fall victim to the right track – wrong track paradox?

Posted in 2022 election, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

The dogs just aren’t eating the dogfood…

November 8, 2022

A left-leaning think tank blisters Dems with a data-rich pre-mortem.
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Pre-election, many Dem pundits started lamenting dumb voters (only on the right, of course) and bad messaging … failing to tout touting Biden’s accomplishments and failing to convince the unwashed that climate change and “democracy” are on the ballot, not Biden, inflation, crime or illegal immigration.

That is, until Third Way — a center-left think tank backed by some of the biggest names in Democratic politics — sounded an alarm about deep-seated party flaws. Source

Channeling the Third Way report, Axios outlined the “brutal bill of particulars”.

“Democrats are underwater on issues voters name as their highest priorities, including the economy, immigration, and crime.”
“While Democrats maintain a lead on handling certain issues like abortion and climate change, voters also rank these issues as lower priorities.”
“Voters question whether the party shares essential values like patriotism and the importance of hard work. … Only 43% of voters say Democrats value hard work, compared to 58% for Republicans.”
“Even in the areas where Democrats are trusted more [including education], it is not clear that voters are sold on Democrats’ approach or ability to get things done.”
“Democrats are benefitting from a perception among voters that Republicans are extreme, but… voters think Democrats are extreme as well.”

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Bottom line: Third Way concludes that Democrats are “out of touch on priorities, ideology and values”.

Other than that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?

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P.S. The entire Third Way report — loaded with polling results and analysis — is worth reading.

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Key Senate Races: Game Day Bets & Odds

November 8, 2022

Election Day morning…
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The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market, Election Betting Odds and Silver 535 are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line:

Vance is a prohibitive favorite in Ohio
All 3 sources agree that Walker is an odds-on favorite in Georgia
Silver calls Nevada a toss-up … others call Laxalt an odds-on favorite
Silver has Oz a slight favorite in Pennsylvania … others have Oz a stronger odds-on favorite
Toss-up in Arizona …Silver has Kelly as a slight favorite … others have Masters a slight favorite … call it a toss-up

It’s Silver against the bets & odds….

Posted in 2022 election, Bets & Odds, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Key Senate Races: Final-Final Polls

November 8, 2022

What the polls are saying on election morning…
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OK, I jumped the gun yesterday when I recapped what I thought were final polls.

A couple of pollsters reported “fresh” polls yesterday and overnight.

So, today — election day — let’s re-recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

Trafalgar calling all 5 (OH, NV, GA, PA, AZ) for GOP
Silver calling AZ for Kelly … other 4 for GOP
RCP final: Toss-up in AZ … other 4 for GOP
NYT / Sienna on another planet <= no surprise
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Runaway for Vance in Ohio
Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
Slight lean to Walker in GA … Kemp’s coattails … UGA football fever – Herschel put the Dawgs on the map!
Slight lean to Oz in PA ,,, Silver flipped from lean Fetterman to lean Oz … Oz pitching Biden’s “close all coal plants” blurt
Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona … only Trafalgar calling it for Masters … others may be under-estimating Lake’s coattails

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Key Senate Races: Near-Final Scorecard

November 7, 2022

What the polls are saying…
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Yesterday, we recapped the betting markets and odds.

Today — the day before the mid-term elections — let’s recap the major polls: the RCP poll-of-polls, Trafalgar (right-leaning, historically accurate), NYT/Sienna (left-lurching) and, of course, Nate Silver’s 535.

Bottom line:

Runaway for Vance in Ohio
Strong lean to Laxalt in Nevada
Slight lean to Walker in GA (Kemp’s coattails, UGA football is the talk of the state and Hershel’s a UGA football icon)
Pollster duel in PA: Trafalgar has Oz up by 2; Silver has Fetterman winning … in rallies Trump drew an overflow of 17,000; Obama only filled half of a 10,000 seat arena
Masters close but no cigar in in Arizona

Posted in 2022 election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Key Senate Races: Odds & Bets

November 6, 2022

Sunday … 2 days until election.
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The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market and Election Betting Odds are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a widening GOP lead in Nevada, approaching runaway status … a statistically significant and widening GOP lead in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

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Specifics from Election Betting Odds

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Key Senate Races: Odds & Bets

November 3, 2022

OK, let’s see what the betting markets are now saying with less than a week to go…

The chart below summarizes what the PredictIt betting market and Election Betting Odds are saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a widening GOP lead in Nevada to near-runaway status … statistically significant but narrowing GOP lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia … a toss-up in Arizona.

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For comparison, here’s what the most favorable Dem-leaning NY Times poll is saying:

Both can’t be right.

My inclination: Follow the money!

Posted in 2022 election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Key Races: Election Odds & Bets

October 31, 2022

As I’ve said before, when I’m looking for near real time, “skin in the game”, quantitative assessment of elections, I go to the PredictIt betting market and, more recently, Election Betting Odds (which tries to incorporate the polls and other information).

The chart below summarizes what they’re saying about the key mid-term Senate races.

Bottom line: A GOP runaway in Ohio … a statistically significant GOP lead in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia … a slight GOP lead in Arizona.

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P.S. Election Betting Odds has a very cool interactive map … you can hover over a state to see its specific numbers.

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Disclosure: Long, long ago, I worked on the business staff of The Daily Princetonian with John Stossel — one of the authors of the Election Betting Odds site

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The Oz – Fetterman debate …

October 26, 2022

One chart says it all !
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You can find lots of commentary re: Fetterman’s disastrous debate performance…

When I’m looking for near instantaneous, “skin in the game”, quantitative calibrating reaction to events, I go to the PredictIt betting market.

Prior to last night’s debate, Oz and Fetterman were roughly tied in the polls and the betting markets.

But, during and immediately after the debate, the odds shifted big time … to Oz 65 – 39.

Posted in 2022 election, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Shocker: Public trust in the FBI nosedives…

August 18, 2022

… and that’s before the Trump raid.
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Gallup periodically asks Americans to assess how some federal agencies and departments are doing.

Specifically, respondents are asked whether a gov’t agency is doing an excellent, good, fair or poor job.

Across the board, agency ratings dropped between 2019 and 2021 (the latest Gallup survey) … with the CDC taking the biggest hit … down 29 percentage points … with only 40% thinking that the CDC was doing an excellent or good job.

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In general, Dems rate agencies higher than Republicans … Independents report declining agency performance ratings

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On the headline point: “public trust” in the FBI fell 13 percentage points from 2019 to 2021 … with a minority (44%) thinking that the FBI was doing an excellent or good job.

2 out of 3 Dems think that the FBI is doing a good job
1 out of 4 GOPs think that the FBI is doing a good job
A minority of Independents think that the FBI is doing a good job

Source: Gallup, visualized by Statista

Again, these results are before the FBI’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a Lago residence.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the 2023 Gallup ratings for the FBI are going to be even lower … with Dems continuing to shout attaboys, the GOPs pointing to (highly) selective prosecutions (Trump – yes, Hilary – no, Hunter & Joe – no) … and Independents’ ratings continuing to slide.

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P.S. Also note the IRS’s low job ratings … about 1 out of 3 Americans think that the IRS is doing an excellent or good job.

The logical Biden move: Add 87,000 IRS agents to double the size of the department.

Yipes.

Posted in FBI, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Has the FBI raid backfired politically?

August 16, 2022

Interesting poll results from the right-leaning (and often “right” as in “correct”) Trafalgar Group.

They surveyed over 1,000 people after the FBI raid.

There were 2 central questions asked…

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#1 Who do you believe is behind the FBI raid on President Trump’s private home?

Overall, there was an even split between “Trump’s political enemies” and “the fair judicial system”
A majority of Independents said that Trump’s political enemies were behind the raid.
Hispanics had, by far, the highest percentage of respondents who thought the raid was politically motivated.

One hypothesis for the last finding is that many (most?) Hispanics have roots to countries where similar political reprisals are common.

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#2 Does the FBI raid on President Trump increase your motivation to vote in the 2022 election?

Overall, 70% of the people said that they were more motivated to vote (in the mid-terms) than they were before the raid.
Predictably, a sky high number of Republicans (83.3%) said they were more motivated than before.
Over 70% of Independents said they were more motivated to vote.
Hispanics had the highest percentage of respondents who were more likely to vote than before the raid.

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A couple takeaways:

First, the FBI raid has generally increased motivation to vote … particularly, it appears to have stoked the fire under the GOP base.

Second, the raid seems to have accelerated a Hispanic shift towards the GOP.

Probably not the result that Team Biden was expecting.

Posted in FBI, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Shocker: Americans losing confidence in “institutions”…

July 7, 2022

So says the most recent Gallup poll.
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According to Gallup: Americans are less confident in major U.S. institutions than they were decades ago … or even a year ago.

In the 1980s,”high confidence in institutions” hovered around 45% … that dropped to 40% in the 1990s … then dropped again to about 35% in the period 2007 to 27% in 2022.

Gallup observes that:

The largest declines in confidence (from 2021 to 2022) are 11 percentage points for the Supreme Court — as reported in late June before the court issued controversial rulings on gun laws and abortion, and …

15 points for the presidency, matching the 15-point drop in President Joe Biden’s job approval rating since the last confidence survey in June 2021.

Congress dropped 5 percentage points (from its prior 12% level) and to a new low of 7%

The highest confidence ratings go due small business and the military (despite the Afghanistan debacle which is apparently laid at the feet of the Biden administration).

Note: Big business is down 4 percentage points to 14%

Next highest confidence levels go to police and the medical system.

Republicans give the police a 67% confidence rating; Dems give the police a low 28% confidence rating.
The criminal justice system is down 6 percentage points to 14%

Public schools are down 4 percentage points to 28%.

Newspapers and TV news are down to 16% and 11% respectively.

Dems give newspapers a 35% confidence rating and TV news a 20% rating; Republicans give those news outlets 19% and 13% ratings, respectively.

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Anybody surprised?

Posted in Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Pew: 38% believe that “human life” begins at conception…

May 10, 2022

… and thus, they believe that a fetus is a person with rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
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Some interesting survey data from Pew…

Let’s start with the overall context.

Should abortion be legal in all or most cases?

While there has been a recent upward trend in the percentage of Americans who think that abortion should be legal in all cases, the current percentage is now the same as it was 25 years ago.

Similarly, the current percentage of Americans who think that abortion should be illegal in all cases is now the same as it was 25 years ago.

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Does human life begin at conception?

Probably not coincidental to the above findings, the “illegal in all cases” percentage is practically identical to the overall percentage of Americans who believe that “human life begins at conception, so a fetus is a person that has human rights” to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

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The question of when human life begins is central to the abortion debate.

Of the 44% of Republicans who do not think that life begins at conception (100% minus 56%), 86% agree that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Among Democrats, 77% do not think that life begins at conception …. 80% think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Hmm.

It’s likely that the 20% of Dems who do not think that abortion should be legal in all cases are those in the 23% who think that life begins at conception.

Note that the percentage of Democrats thinking that abortion should be legal in all cases has trended upward in the past 15 years … the percentage of Republicans thinking that abortion should be legal in all or most cases has stayed constant over the same period.

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What about mother’s health and rape cases?

While percentages are higher among Democrats, a majority in both political parties agree that abortion should be legal when a mother’s health is threatened … and in rape cases.

Note: There are varied interpretations of “threatens the woman’s health” … ranging from serious disability or death … to minor depression or lifestyle changes.

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What about unhealthy babies?

A slim majority thinks that abortion should be legal in all cases when the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems … an additional 25% thinks that “it depends” … only 1 in 5 firmly rule it out.

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Bottom line

The question of when life begins is central to where people stand on the abortion issue.

Reminder: Hillary Clinton, in a classic Freudian slip, acknowledged of “unborn persons deserving rights” … and President Biden, has recently referred to “unborn children”.

Draw your own conclusions…

Posted in Abortion, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Gallup: 49% "pro-choice", 47% "pro-life"…

May 6, 2022

… with partisan and regional skews.
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Let’s stick with the numbers…

For the past 15 years or so, roughly an equal number of people have self-identified as “pro-choice or pro-life..

In its most recent polling, Gallup pegs the split at 49% pro-choice, 47% pro-life … within the margin of polling error … and tracking with respondents’ views on “moral acceptability”.

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So what to do?

About 1 in 5 (19%) think that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances … that’s about 40% of the pro-lifers.

About 1 in 3 (32%) think that abortion should be legal in all circumstances … that’s about 60% of pro-choicers.

But, a near majority (48%) — made up of some pro-lifers and some pro-choicers — think that abortion should be legal “only under some circumstances (e.g. rape, incest, health of mother).

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Spinning the numbers

Both pro-lifers and pro-choicers try to lay claim to the 48% who think abortion should be legal in some cases.

Pro-lifers emphasize that roughly 2 in 3 80% (19% + 48%) favor restrictions on abortion.

Pro-choicers emphasize that 80% (32% + 48%) are in favor of allowing abortions … neglecting the part about some restrictions.

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The partisan divide

No surprise, abortion views vary by political identification.

About 3 in 4 Republicans (76%%) think that abortion is morally acceptable.

But, about 2 in 3 Democrats think that abortion is no harm, no foul.

And. of course, Independents are split down the middle with 51% thinking that abortion is morally acceptable.

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State to state

Gallup acknowledges that abortion views on morally acceptability and restrictions varies state-to-date … but doesn’t provide polling numbers.

Seems reasonable to expect that the bluest West Coast and coastal Northeast states are pro-choice and favor fewer restrictions (if any).

And, it seems reasonable to expect that the redest Heartland and Bible Belt states lean pro-life … and favor restrictions (some total).

So, the question boils down to: Is either group entitled to force its views and laws onto the other group.

Good luck forging a consensus on that question…

Posted in Abortion, Gallup, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Quick: What percentage of the U.S. adult population is Black?

April 1, 2022

The question is a statistical one, not social, politcal or philosophical.
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Recently, YouGov asked people to guess the percentage of American adults who are “members of 43 different groups, including racial and religious groups, as well as other less frequently studied groups, such as pet owners and those who are left-handed”.

And the answer is…

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If you guessed that 40% of American adults are Black, then your answer is close to to poll’s average response (41%).

You’re with the herd, but…

Actually, Blacks are only 12% of the American adult population.

So much for the oft-touted “wisdom of crowds”.

And, the estimates vary when the queried “crowd” is divided into racial groups:

Black Americans estimate that, on average, Black people make up a majority (52%) of the U.S. adult population
Non-Black Americans estimate the proportion to be roughly 39%, closer to the real figure of 12%, but still way off

Hmm.

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More generally, YouGov’s survey results conform to a common statistical finding that…

Americans generally over-estimate the size of minority groups and members of the minority groups tend to way overestimate the size of their group.

Conversely, Americans generally under-estimate the size of minority groups

Below are more results from the YouGov Survey.

Note: A high estimate to actual ratio is an indication of the degree of over-estimation. An E to A ratio under 1 indicates a case of over-estimation

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Quick: What, if anything, has Biden done as president that you approve of?

February 11, 2022

If you’re scratching your head, you’re not alone.
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And, that’s from a CNN poll, the results of which CNN’s John King calls “stunning”.

Specifically, the CNN “screen crawl” below reads:

56% of Americans say “nothing” when asked what President Biden has done that they approve of”

And, digging into the poll’s “internals”, another 9% answered that question: “Don’t know”.

That bumps the question’s zilch number to 65%.

Said differently, that says that only about 1 in 3 came up with something that Joe did that they approve of.

And what did they approve of?

You guessed it…

About half of the folks who came up with something said some variant of “free money”:

Predictably, CNN’s King chalks the poll’s results up to “messaging” issues in communicating the “legitimate successes of the Biden administration” … but, he didn’t delineate what those successes might be.

Either he is in the group that can’t name a success … or he was afraid that the cameraman would burst out laughing during the live shot if he shilled an answer.

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Memo to John King

In Marketing 101 lingo, the dogs just aren’t eating the dog food.

Or more accurately, most of the dogs are puking it up…

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Biden’s Christmas rally fizzles…

January 5, 2022

In the run-up to Christmas, as retailers deftly managed through supply chain logjams and Santa fully loaded his sleigh with enough presents to keep kids smiling, Biden’s job approval numbers improved a bit … peaking at 44% approval, 50% disapproval.

Then came omicron and the test kit shortage … and the worm turned again.

According to the RCP poll-of-polls, Biden is now almost 12 percentage points under water … 42.3% approve of his job performance, 53.9% disapprove.

For the record, the 53.9% disapproval is the highest that Biden has earned up to this point in his administration.

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Drilling down, according to a recent CNBC/Change Research poll, Biden is deeply underwater on all queried issue areas.

He scores best (err, make that least bad) on Infrastructure (17 points underwater) and COVID (minus 19 and falling fast).

He scores worst on Price of everyday goods (48 points underwater), Immigration (minus 46) and Family economics (minus 40).

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Taking another cut at the data, Change Research (CNBC’s polling partner), scores a “Kitchen Table Report Card” by asking people:

Imagine you could grade the Biden Administration’s handling of issues impacting the economy.

How would you grade the Biden Administration’s handling of each of these issues?

> Republicans given Biden straight Fs

> Dems give him a mix of Bs and Cs … averaging out to B- / C+

> Independents give him straight Ds

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Just for the record…

On the CNBC poll, Biden scores 38% favorable, 56% unfavorable on personal favorability.

On that same measure, in that same poll, Trump scored 38% favorable, 55% unfavorable.

Hmm.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Bidenomics, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Putting Biden’s approval slide in context…

December 1, 2021

How does he rack up versus Obama & Trump?
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Earlier this week, we posted some results from a 130,000 person survey done by a polling company called Civiqs.

The poll centered on the question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as president?

Consistent with other recent polls, Civiqs found that at the national level a majority disapproves of the job Biden is doing .. and his job approval is underwater (or, “upside down”) by 16 percentage points … and he’s underwater in all but 5 states.

A couple or readers opined: “Yeah, but Trump was worse”.

As evidence, one reader linked me to a Statista recap chart.

Fair enough…

> Biden started out at about 57% approval … and has already fallen 24 percentage points to 43%

> Trump was slower out of the gates with about 45% approval … and, to a comparable time point in his term of ofice, he dropped about 7 percentage points to 38%

> For reference. Obama started out at a sky high 67% approval … and slid about 16 percentage points to 51%.

Bottom line: Trump certainly didn’t get a honeymoon period … his “opposition” was entrenched from the get-go … so, his 7-point performance slide was less than Obama’s 16 point drop or Biden’s 24 point slide.

That said, it’s true that Biden is outscoring Trump 43% to 38% ten months into their presidencies.

But…

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Taking a longer-run view, note that Trump rallied from his 38% low to almost 50% … as the economy grew, the Southern border was contained and the Middle East stabilized.

Then, Covid hit our shores and Trump’s approval plummeted back down to about 35%.

The question of today: Has Biden’s slump bottomed out?

If so, will his performance earn him the same approval trajectory that Trump enjoyed pre-Covid?

I’m betting the under on that one.

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Thanks to JD for raising the question and feeding me the Statista lead.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys, Trump, President Donald J. | Leave a Comment »

Biden slipping among key constituencies and swing voters…

November 30, 2021

Independents, suburban women and even the “well educated” are jumping ship.
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Yesterday, we posted some results from a 130,000 person survey done by a polling company called Civiqs.

The poll centered on the question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as president?

Digging deeper, his job approval number is only above water in 5 Dem-heavy states … and only a (slim) majority in 2 of them — Hawaii & Vermont.

And, digging even deeper into the poll’s “internals” …

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Education

> A majority of respondents with less than a post-graduate degree disapprove of Biden’s job performance

> Post-grads are evenly split (43% to 43%) on Biden’s job approval. That’s reported to be a big approval drop.

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Gender

> Only about 1/3 of males and females approve of the job that Biden is doing.

> Said differently, Biden is losing one of the constituencies that propelled him to victory: Trump-hating Suburban Women.

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Party Affiliation

> Predictably, GOP disapproval of Biden’s job performance is near-unanimous.

> A majority of Dems still approve … but even that number has fallen to near 50-50

> Most significant: Only 1 in 5 Independents approve of Biden’s job performance.

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The bottom line:

It looks like Biden’s “I’m not Trump’ selling proposition is being dwarfed by his actual job performance … and voters are catching a bad case of buyer’s remorse.

I don’t think that there’s a vaccine for that…

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Joe offered thanks to Dem-heavy Hawaii & Vermont…

November 29, 2021

They’re the only 2 states where even a slim majority approve of his job performance
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Let’s start at the top …

A polling company called Civiqs surveyed over 130,000 people on the question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as president?

Consistent with other recent polls, Civiqs found — at the aggregate level — that (a) a majority disapprove of the job Biden is doing, and (b) his job approval is underwater (or, “upside down”) by 16 percentage points with 37% approving and 53% disapproving.

That’s not new news.

But, since Civiq’s sample size is so large, it’s able to slice & dice the data by it’s component parts.

That’s where the news is.

For example, at the state level:

> Hawaii & Vermont are the only 2 states where even a slim majority approve of Biden’s job performance

> His job approval number is only above water in 3 other Dem-heavy states: Maryland (48% to 41%), (Massachusetts (48% to 40%), California (46%42%)

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On the flip-side:

> More than 2 out of 3 residents in 10 states disapprove of Biden’s job approval.

In 4 states, more than 70% disapprove of his job performance: West Virginia (76%), Wyoming (73%), North Dakota (71%), and Oklahoma (71%)

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Glub-blub-glub

> Biden’s job approval is underwater by more than 25 percentage points 25 states

His job approval is most underwater in West Virginia (57%), Wyoming (73%), Oklahoma (49%) and North Dakota (48%).

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Find your state on the heat map below:

Posted in Biden, Joe, Bidenomics, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

WaPo: “Biden approval hits new low as economic discontent rises”

November 15, 2021

And, that’s the most favorable headline the Post could muster.
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It has been a tough week for the Washington Post.

First, confronted with facts to the contrary, the paper “amended” at least a dozen of its reports on the infamous Trump-disparaging “Steele Dossier. With some initial indictments, special counsel John Durham traced the fictional Russia-Trump collusion directly back to Clinton Campaign operatives.

Second, reporting results from the most recent its most recent ABC-WaPo poll, the most favorable headline it could conjure for was : “Biden approval hits new low as economic discontent rises”,

We’ll get back to that poll later … but let’s start with the big picture: the latest RCP poll-of-polls.

Note Biden’s steadily increasing job disapproval over the past couple of months … and the disapproval surge in recent weeks.

Biden now stands at 42% approval, 52.7% disapproval … putting him “underwater” by 10.7 percentage points.

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The ABC-WaPo poll is right in line with the average of other polls.

ABC-WaPo puts Biden’s overall job performance at a new low (for that poll): with 53% disapproving … and 41% approving (down 11 percentage points since spring).

That puts Biden a whopping 12 percentage points underwater.

It gets worse…

Only 35% of Independents approve of Biden’s job performance … 58% disapprove … putting Biden 23 percentage points underwater.

Digging a little deeper…

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Registered Voters

Narrowing the poll’s sample from “all adults” (the left data column) to “registered voters” (the right data column). Biden’s job approval drops to 38% (from 41%) and his disapproval swells to 57% (from 52%) … putting him 19 percentage points underwater.

And…

Among the registered voters who expressed “strong” points-of-view, 19% “strongly approved” of Biden’s job performance; 48% “strongly disapproved” … pitting Old Joe 29 percentage points underwater.

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Battleground Contagion

Biden’s poor job approval appears contagious….

ABC-WaPo did a deep dive in 8 states that are expected to have highly competitive Senate races — four currently held by Democrats, four by Republicans. Source

In these states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden’s overall job approval rating is 33% (compared with 43% elsewhere).

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Generic Ballot

ABC-WaPo asked respondents: For whom would you vote today in your congressional district — a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate?

Among all registered voters in the poll, 51% expressed support for a generic Republican candidate, 41%. In 2018, Dems had a 53$ to 45% advantage.

Compared to 2018, Republicans gained ground in all major voting blocs (the far right data column below).

Most notably, Independents swung 30 points .. from 52-42 Democratic to 50-32 Republican.

And, while Dems continue to hold a 15 point advantage among Hispanics, their advantage is down 40 points from 2018.

Even the WaPo has to concede that Biden’s fall from voters’ grace is of “historic proportions”.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

More: Which “typological political group” are you in?

November 12, 2021

… and how many are in it with you?
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In a prior post, we summarized Pew’s nine American “typographical political groups” and asked: Which group are you in?”

1. Progressive Left
2. Establishment Liberals
3. Democratic Mainstays
4. Outsider Left
5. Stressed Sideliners
6. Ambivalent Right:
7. Populist Right
8. Committed Conservatives
9. Faith and Flag Conservatives

You could have slotted yourself by reading summaries of the groups or, better yet, by answering Pew’s short values-based quiz and letting Pew slot you.

If you haven’t already done so, here’s the link to the group summaries and the online slotting quiz.

OK, now that you’ve done that, let’s look at he numbers…

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General Public

Here’s how Pew sizes the groups for the general population…

Interpreting the Pew numbers:

> About 37% of the country have somewhat mixed or balanced political views … those in the middle 3 groups

That’s a sizable group, but short of majority moderate middle.

> The most extreme groupings (top 2 and bottom 2 on the list) are sizable and statistically significant at 17% and 19% respectively).

These groups tend to “punch above their weight” in on the political scene.

> Pew’s classification scheme suggests a Democratic skew.

But, that may just be a reflection of the methodology.

==============

Party Affiliation

Here’s how the numbers break out by party affiliation…

> Most “Stressed Sideliners” — who are then most mixed and balanced in their values — do not identify with a party, and those who do are roughly equally split between those who lean to the Democratic Party (26% of all Stressed Sideliners) and those who lean Republican (22% of all Stressed Sideliners)

> Only 8% of Democrats belong to a GOP-oriented typology group … and only 6% of Republicans and Republican leaners belong to a Democratic-oriented typology group.

> Just over 1/3rd of each party’s members and leaners are in their more extreme values groupings (35% of Dems; 38% of GOPs)

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The Urban Divide

The Pew Report cuts the data in a variety of ways.

One analysis that caught my eye was the urban – suburban – rural divide.

Pew asked respondents whether of not they “ prefer to live in a place with larger houses farther from schools, stores and restaurants” … and categorized them by their degree of ruralness.

No surprise,these variables are highly correlated.

As to be expected, urbanites tend to cluster toward Democratic-oriented values (think: population diversity, collective interests and reliance/dependency on gov’t services e.g. public transportation) … rural folks cluster towards GOP-oriented values (think: independence, family-focus, trucks) … suburbanites fall between the urban-rural divide (think: nuclear families, cars & SUVs, mix of public & private schools)

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Pew’s conclusion

Based on its data and analysis, Pew drew this overall conclusion:

Partisan polarization remains the dominant, seemingly unalterable condition of American politics.

Republicans and Democrats agree on very little — and when they do, they most often share the belief that they have little in common.

So much for the moderate middle, right?

============

Here’s a link to the full Pew Report … it’s worth reading!

Posted in Political polarization, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Which “typological political group” are you in?

November 11, 2021

Pew says that there are nine possible groups that you might be in…
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In a prior post, we asked: Does America have a “moderate middle” any more?

Referencing some Pew data, we reluctantly concluded that the moderate middle has been dwindling for years … and polarization has been accelerating.

============
Right on cue, I got a coincidental blast email from Pew announcing their most recent comprehensive analysis of the American Political Typology which “provides a road map to today’s fractured political landscape by segmenting the public into nine distinct groups, based on an analysis of their attitudes and values.”

Note: Pew’s approach is a variant of “psychographic segmentation” – a technique used by marketers, for years, to segment people by their attitudes, interests and opinions … rather than grouping them by demographic variables such as age, income or race.

Pew calibrated its nine political groups … and drew this overall conclusion:

Partisan polarization remains the dominant, seemingly unalterable condition of American politics.

Republicans and Democrats agree on very little — and when they do, they most often share the belief that they have little in common.

So much for the moderate middle, right?

=============

Back to the headlined question

Which of Pew’s nine typographical political groups are you in?

For openers, read the below summary descriptions and pick the one that most closely describes where you really fit … not the one that you want to be perceived as being part of … nor one that is more aspirational than real

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Pew’s American Political Typology:
The Nine Groups

Progressive Left: A majority white group that has very liberal views across a range of issues – including the size and scope of government, foreign policy, immigration and race and supports far-reaching changes to address racial injustice and expand the social safety net.

Establishment Liberals: While just as liberal in many ways as Progressive Left, the Establishment Liberals are far less persuaded of the need for sweeping change. They are some of the strongest supporters of the Democratic Party. They tend to be more inclined toward more measured approaches to societal change than their Progressive Left counterparts.

Outsider Left: The youngest typology group, they hold liberal views on most issues. About half say they are independents but vote overwhelmingly Democratic. They are deeply frustrated with the political system – including the Democratic Party and its leaders. They have deeply negative views of the GOP.

Democratic Mainstays: The largest Democratic-oriented group. Racially diverse and older, they are unshakeable Democratic loyalists. They are economically liberal, pro-military and moderate on immigration and social issues

Stressed Sideliners: The only typology group without a clear partisan orientation. This group has the lowest level of political engagement. They are generally disconnected from politics and the two major parties and vote at lower rates than most other typology groups. Their political views and demographics are mixed. They are largely defined by their minimal interest in politics.

Ambivalent Right: The youngest and least conservative GOP-aligned group, hold conservative views about the size of government, the economic system and issues of race and gender. But they hold more moderate stances on several social issues including abortion and immigration.

Populist Right: Very conservative and overwhelmingly Republican, They hold highly restrictive views about immigration policy and are very critical of government and major U.S. corporations.

Committed Conservatives: Staunchly conservative and overwhelmingly Republican. They hold pro-business views traditionally associated with the Republican Party, have favorable attitudes about international trade and favor a limited role of government.

Faith and Flag Conservatives: They are highly religious, politically engaged and both socially and economically conservative. They favor a robust role for religion in public life and a smaller role for government in society, and they hold that a strong American military is essential in international affairs.

==============

Take the test

Now, test your self-perception by running through Pew’s short battery of values-based categorization questions.

It takes less than 5 minutes … and its answer may surprise you.

click to take the test
=============

For the record

Here’s where the Pew test slotted me:

What’s your best fit?

Posted in Ideology - polarization, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

VA Gov Race: Final Polls

November 2, 2021

Just for the record…

The 538 (Nate Silver) poll-of-polls is weighted by “quality of the poll” and recency has Youngkin up by just under 1%.

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The RCP poll-of-polls has Youngkin up by 1.7%

> Neither candidate breaks the magic 50% level

> The 3 most recent polls average Youngkin up by 44%

> Dropping the Fox Poll cuts Youngkin’s advantage to .4%

Reminder: in 2020, liberals praised the Fox News stats crew for calling Arizona early on election night.

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The Trafalgar Group — right-leaning, rated “A” by 538 for reliability, most recent poll — has Youngkin up by 2.3%

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Averaging the 3 above sources give Younkin about a 1.5% advantage.

If 1.5% is the over/under, I’m betting the over (way over)

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Reminder: Fairfax County is Deep Blue, heavily populated with gov’t employees & contractors, and always posts results late … so, Younkin supporters shouldn’t do touchdown dances prematurely.

Posted in Polls & Surveys, Virginia politics | 1 Comment »

Shocker: Biden polls even with Trump…

October 21, 2021

… on favorability and head-to-head electability.
=============

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll …

Biden’s job approval seems to have leveled off at a low level:

> 20% strongly approve (down 18 percentage points from Inauguration Day)

> 45% strongly disapprove (up 13 percentage points from Inauguration Day)

> Putting Biden currently underwater by 25 percentage points points.

Drilling down…

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Biden Competence

> A majority (55%) think that Biden is not competent to do the job

> 2 out of 3 Independents think that Biden is not competent to do the job

Hmm…

But at least he’s honest and and a nice guy, right?

Not exactly…

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Biden Honesty

> Only 42% think that Biden is honest; majority of those with an opinion think he’s not honest.

> 57% of Independents think he’s not honest.

OK, he’s not competent nor honest, but he’s a nice guy, right?

What?

==============

Biden “Favorability”

Quinnipiac asked: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable?

Apparently, “nice guy” (if true) doesn’t neutralize low scores on competence and honesty.

> Only 40% view Biden favorably (down 14 percentage points since Inauguration Day)

> 50% view him unfavorably (up 12 percentage points since Inauguration Day)

> Putting Biden’s current favorability score underwater by 10 percentage points).

If that isn’t bad enough…

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Trump’s Current “Favorability”

Here’s the ho-hum-crasher from the same Quinnipiac poll:

> Trump’s current favorability score is 41% (1 percentage point higher than Biden’s

> 52% view Trump unfavorably (only 2 percentage points more than Biden

> So, call it a tie … with both having majority unfavorable ratings

So, a broadly despised, mean tweeting, media pummeled, twice-impeached one-term president is viewed as warmly (or coldly) after nine months than the guy who was elected to replace him.

Can it be?

==============

Better Off or Worse Off?

Quinnipiac also asked a variant of the question that Ronald Reagan popularized:

Overall, do you think that the country is better off or worse off today than it was a year ago?

Keep in mind, that a year ago, we were pre-vaccine and largely shutdown economically and socially.

And, the answer is:

> A majority (52%) thinks that the country is worse off now than a year ago

> There’s near-unanimity among Republicans (94%) that the country is worse off

> Only 74% of Dems think that the country is better off now than a year ago … not fully offsetting the strong Republican view.

> Most telling, 56% of Independents (many of whom voted for Biden) think that the country is worse off now .

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Trump vs. Biden

To add a punctuation point to these survey results…

Pollsters from Grinnell (College) & Selzer Consulting conclude, based on their most recent survey:

> “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, the same percentage of likely voters would vote for former President Donald Trump (40%) as President Biden (40%)

> Among Independents, if a Trump – Biden election were held today, our poll shows former President Trump winning that group 45% to 28%.”

==============

The pieces all seem to tie together, folks.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »

Gallup: Americans sour on government agencies…

October 20, 2021

Yesterday, we posted that, according to Gallup, a majority of Americans say the government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses.

Wonder why?

Well, another Gallup survey highlights the underlying reason why Americans want the Federal government to do less.

Bottom line: Americans do not think that most government agencies are doing a particularly good job … and. across the board, they think that the agencies’ performance is weakening,

=============

Takeaways

Based on people rating agencies’ performance positively, i.e. as doing an excellent of good job…

> Only NASA is sustaining its rating … and that agency has outsourced much of its work to Bezos and Musk

> The performance ratings of ALL other agencies dropped between 2020 and 2021

> Only 3 agencies — NASA, USPS and the Secret Service — now get majority positive ratings.

> Both the USPS and Secret Service ratings dropped by double digits … 17 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

==============

Healthcare Agencies

> The CDC had the biggest drop … 24 percentage points … from 64% to a 40% rating the agency’s performance as excellent or good.

> Comparably, the FDA and VA are down to 40% and 36% respectively.

==============

Security & Law Enforcement

> In 2020: the FBI, DHS and CIA all had a majority rating their performance as excellent or good.

> But, all 3 of those agencies dropped by double digits between 2020 and 2021 … the CIA dropped 19 points (from 60% to 41%) … the FBI dropped 13 points (from 57% to 44%) … and DHS dropped 13 points (from 55% to 42%)

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Defense & State Depts.

> Neither Defense nor State were rated in 2020

> in 2021, the Defense Dept. performance was rated positively by 46%

> In 2021, the State Dept. rating was rated excellent of good by only 32% … putting the State Dept. last among the 15 key Federal agencies.

============

Bottom Line

As the WSJ would say:

“If President Biden wants to understand why his $3.5 trillion entitlement spending plan is stalled in Congress, he might look at the new polls from Gallup.”

Seriously, what rational person would give a gang that can’t shoot straight a virtual blank check ($3.5 trillion) … and expect much good to happen.

Posted in Federal Government, Government & Politics, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Gallup – Majority now want gov’t “more hands off” …

October 19, 2021

A reversal since last year … when you-know-who was president
==============

Straight off the presses from Gallup…

> A majority (52%) of Americans say the government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses.

> The usual partisan divide is evident: 80% of Republicans think the gov’t is doing too many things; 78% of Dems think that the government is doing too little.

> That said, even Dems shifted 5 percentage points away from the notion that “gov’t should be doing more”.

> The swing factor: 57% of independents now think that gov’t is doing too much … that’s up by 19 percentage points from Gallup’s 2020 survey.

More specifically, 50% of Americans say that they prefer “less services & lower taxes” … 29% say to “keep taxes and services where they are now” … and only 19% prefer “more services & higher taxes”.

Gallup was silent on whether any of the 19% currently pay any income taxes … or if any of the 10% are willing themselves to pay higher taxes to pay for added services.

I’m betting the under on that one…

==============

The WSJ Take

The WSJ chalks the results up to buyer’s remorse …

In his few months in office, the President has made clear the era of Big Government is back.

But now that Americans are getting a better look at what this entails — higher taxes, more regulation, more spending and inflation — they are having second thoughts.

…. and opines that the results clearly indicate why Biden’s “$3.5 trillion entitlement spending plan” is only gaining traction among Democratic loyalists.

“If President Biden wants to understand why his $3.5 trillion entitlement spending plan is stalled in Congress, he might look at the new poll from Gallup.”

You think?

Posted in Gallup, Government & Politics, Government Angst, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Nums: The Virginia gubernatorial race…

October 15, 2021

Close race … Trump and education are on the ballot.
==============

Let’s look at the numbers…

According to a recent CBS-YouGov Poll, the Virginia governor’s race — pitting former governor and hard core Dem politico, Terry McAuliffe against a political novice, wealthy former private equity exec, Glenn Youngkin — is within the margin of error.

===============

Independents lean to Youngkin by 9 percentage points.

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Party-affiliated likely voters are deeply entrenched … making relative turnout levels pivotal.

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Likely Youngkin voters are more enthusiastic about voting … suggesting a turnout advantage for Younkin.

Note: McAuliffe has enlisted Obama to campaign and rally the Dem-dependable black vote.

=============

Typical of off-year elections, to date, early voting totals are substantially lower than they were in the 2020 presidential election.

Note: Early voting is typically dominated by Dems … GOP voters tend to in-person voting, especially on election day.

==============

Based on the poll’s “internals”, CBS concludes:

I agree that the race is tight, but the Dems have a history of winning the tight games in Virginia.

That said, I have a different slant on the “drivers”.

Hate is a very strong emotion, and Trump-hate is still rampant in Northern Virginia … which is dominated by Federal employees, government contractors and liberal elites.

Somethin to watch: Only a slim majority of Federal government employees were vaccinated before Biden’s mandate. Will there be a SWA-like backlash as enforcement date looms closer?

Loudoun County is ground zero for the education issue: Should parents have a role in their children’s education or are they “domestic terrorists” if they challenge school boards and teachers’ unions?

Something to watch: Loudoun County is the fastest growing county in the U.S. Will the “school board moms” be large enough in numbers and compelling enough in message to rally educated suburban women to love their kids more than they hate Trump?

To that point…

Recently in a debate, McAuliffe declared: “I don’t think that parents should be telling schools what to teach”

According to a recent Trafalgar poll … 19.9% of Virginians “strongly agree” with McAuliffe … 45.7 “strongly disagree. That’s a 25.8 percentage point gap!

This race will be interesting to watch … and, possibly a harbinger of things to come in 2020.

Posted in Polls & Surveys, Virginia politics | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh, Joe: Majority think you’re incompetent…

October 11, 2021

… and your job approval goes further underwater.
==============

Let’s start with the RCP poll-of-polls…

> 43.3% approve of the job Joe’s doing … 52 disapprove … putting him underwater by 8.7 percentage points.

> Half of the polls have him underwater by double digits … only the Dem-dependable Reuters poll has him close to even

=============

The right-leaning Trafalgar Group has Biden’s job approval underwater by 16.4 percentage points (39.6% approve. 56.0% disapprove)…

… and puts his strong job approval underwater by a whopping 26.7 percentage points (fewer than 1 in 4 strongly approve of the job he’s doing, more than 1/2 strongly disapprove)

=============

Drilling down, a new (left-leaning) Quinnipiac poll says it all…

Some details from the Quinnipiac poll…

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Biden Job Approval

> Majority (53%) disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.

> 60% of Independents disapprove

> 2 out of 3 Blacks still approve of the job Biden is doing, but…

> Biden’s job approval has dropped 22 points among Black Americans since April (according to the AP-NORC poll)

============

Biden ”Strong” Job Approval

> Overall, consistent with the Trafalgar poll, Biden is underwater by 25 percentage points on strong job approval (or disapproval)

> Biden is underwater by 35 percentage points among Independents

> Biden is underwater by 23 percentage points among Hispanics

==============

Direction of Country

> Almost half (48%) are very dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

> Majority (54%) of Independents are very dissatisfied with the direction of the country

==============

Biden Competence

> As headlined, a majority (55%) think that Biden is not competent to do the job

> 2 out of 3 Independents think that Biden is not competent to do the job

=============

Biden Honesty

> Only 42% think that Biden is honest; majority of those with an opinion think he’s not honest.

> 57% of Independents think he’s not honest.

=============

Quinnipiac’s overall conclusion

=============

Hardly a mandate for transformational change, right?

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Pew: Majority disapprove of Joe’s job performance…

September 28, 2021

… and don’t think that he’s “mentally sharp”
=============
The latest Pew poll pegs Biden’s job approval underwater by 9 percentage points … 45% approve of the job he’s doing; 53% disapprove.

Those results are consistent with most other recent polls … and, aren’t really new news any more.

=============

What is new news is Pew’s diagnostic drill down.

First is the public’s confidence in Biden’s handling specific hot issues.

Joe scores highest on his handling of the pandemic … a narrow majority (51% to 49%) have confidence in his handling of the pandemic.

But, those confidence levels are waning … and, even on the pandemic, he’s 9 percentage points underwater looking at the net of “strong opinions” (“very confident” minus “not at all confident”)

Biden’s worst scores are on unity: “bringing the country closer together”.

In that area, Biden is a whopping 32 points under water in total … and 28 points underwater among those with strong opinions.

In the middle, Joe is substantially underwater on economic policy, foreign policy, use of military force and immigration policy

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Pew also drilled down on Biden’s personal characteristics.

Biden scores highest on “stands up for what he believes in” and “cares about ordinary people”.

He breaks about even on honesty … and is marginally underwater on “good role model” and “takes responsibility”.

The ho-hum crasher (i.e. that which can be counted on to catch a crowd’s attention) is Biden’s score on “mentally sharp”.

On mental sharpness, Joe is 13 percentage points underwater in total (43% to 56%) … and, among strong opinionators, he’s 21 points underwater (14% “very well” to 35% “not at all well”)

Ouch.

============

So, in summary:

Pew agrees that a majority disapproves of the job Biden is doing … especially on bringing the country together … and, Pew reports that a majority question his decision-making and his mental sharpness.

Except for that, how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh: Joe’s job approval hits the Mendoza Line…

September 21, 2021

And, his usually reliable media is now openly questioning his competence.
===============

First, an explanation of the metric:

The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza, whose low batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting.

This is often thought of as the threshold below which a player’s presence on a Major League Baseball team cannot be justified.

The term has come to be used in other contexts when one is so incompetent in one key skill that other skills cannot compensate for that deficiency.

In baseball, it’s dropping below a .200 batting average.

A presidential variant: A majority disapproving of job performance.

Well, Biden has hit the presidential Mendoza line in RCP’s poll-of polls … that’s not a single poll, it’s the composite of 8 politically balanced polls.

Note that the disapproval line had been increasing by about 1% each month until the Afghan fiasco … then it jumped about 4 percentage points during the botched withdrawal (despite ample air cover being provided by prevailing Bide-leaning media) … and is now trending at about a point a month again.

==============

A harbinger that the trend is likely to continue (or accelerate) is a recap by Townhall.com:

Across networks on Sunday morning, mainstream network anchors, panels, and reporters didn’t hold back in their criticism of President Biden’s ailing performance amid multiple crises at home and around the world, tempering their normally lavish praise to point out there are serious concerns over how the country is being run and Biden’s competency..

Some specifics offered up to support the point:

NBC’s Chuck Todd: “It’s been a rough six weeks and it seems as if it’s only getting worse.”
ABC’s Martha Radatz: “”What he has done so far, hasn’t really worked”.
CBS’s David Martin: “Biden says the U.S. is going to prevent any any reconstitution of Al Qaeda with surveillance conducted from outside the country, drones flying over the horizon from outside the country… and that they will be able to detect a plot in the works and then be able to disrupt it with a drone strike. But you have to say that the mistake made in Kabul is not an encouraging precedent”.
ABC’s Jonathan Karl: “Biden’s credibility on COVID has been what has driven his level of his popularity … and we’ve seen it eroded over the past several weeks.”

More generally, NBC’s Todd observed:

Biden’s got a pretty big credibility crisis on his hands because all of these problems in some ways, showed up after he said something basically the exact opposite.

He said that the Afghanistan withdrawal wasn’t going to be messy, that it wasn’t going to look like Saigon.

On booster shots, he came out and essentially said eight months and even indicated maybe we should start it as soon as five months.

Now we’re not sure if anybody under 65 is going to get a booster shot.

Of course the border, he said things were under control.

It’s pretty clear we have a bigger problem now than we’ve had in years and his policies have turned into becoming a magnet.

He’s got credibility issues on the world stage to make sure people still view America as not just a stable democracy but a competent leader of the free world right now

Whoa, Nellie.

Losing Chuck Todd is an indication that Biden might be facing another contagion…

=============

But, as a friend likes to ask: Who are the 46% who think Biden’s doing a good job?

Maybe they put a ceiling on his disapproval numbers…

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Buyer’s Remorse: 20% of Biden voters admit regret…

September 8, 2021

According to RCP … the percentage of Americans who think that the country is moving in the wrong direction has increased from 50% to 60% in the past 10 days … only 30% think that the country is moving in the right direction.

And, according to YouGov. only 19% of Independents think the country is moving in the right direction … and only 58% of the people who voted for Biden think that the country is moving in the right direction.

So, it’s not surprising that in the latest Zogby poll, 1 in 5 Biden voters admitted to regretting their vote for Sleepy Joe.

Drilling down…

Among the sub-groups that regret their votes more than the average:

Cryptocurrency holders (44%)
Middle aged voters aged 30-49 (30%)
Hispanics (33%)
Republicans (29%)
Weekly Amazon shoppers (29%)
Urban voters (28%)
Younger voters aged 18-29 (27%)
African Americans (25%)

Zogby notes that this poll taken before the Afghan withdrawal fiasco.

So, Zogby concludes:

“One gets the sense that Biden’s ship is sinking fast, and Biden might not have any lifeboats aboard to save him”

==========

Addressing the exasperated the mean-tweet-haters who voted for Biden, the WSJ’s Holman Jenkins opines::

Admit it: You didn’t vote for him, yet his absence hasn’t solved any problem.

America doesn’t feel noticeably less chaotic with him out of the picture.

COVID is resurging, inflation is rampant, Putin is winning (Nord Stream pipeline, halt of weapon sales to Ukraine, pleas for more oil, ransomware victories). citizens were left behind in Taliban country, allies have lost faith.

A big price for eliminating the mean tweets.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh, Joe: You’re underwater and sinking…

September 7, 2021

And, the disapprovers have the strongest feelings.
==============

For openers, according to RCP’s latest poll-of-polls:

> 45.6% of American adults approve of the job that Biden is doing … an all-time low

> 49.1% disapprove … putting Biden 3.5 percentage points underwater on net total approval

============

Digging deeper: According to the most recent Washington Post poll:

Back in April, Biden’s net strong approval (a measure of intensity) was essentially a push … … 34% strongly approved, 35% strongly disapproved.

Now, Biden’s net strong approval is underwater by 17 points … 25% strongly approve, 42% strongly disapprove.

The 16 percentage points slide in Biden’s net strong approval since April is evenly divided between a 9 point slip among strong approvers … and a 7 point increase in strong disapprovers.

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Consistent with WaPo’s numbers, the left-leaning YouGov poll puts Biden’s net strong approval 15 points underwater.

Digging still deeper into the YouGov poll’s internals…

> Blacks’ net strong approval — while still high at 22% — has dropped 7 percentage points in 10 days

> GOP strong disapproval increased to 80% … and net strong disapproval increased by 4 percentage points to 77%

> While Dems’ net strong approval is still a sky high 48% … strong approval has dropped below 50%’ Said differently, less than half of Dems strongly approve of the job that Biden is doing

> Most indicative politically, Independents’ net strong disapproval increased by 8 percentage points to 31%

===========

Good luck, Joe.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh, Joe: The lines have crossed…

August 20, 2021

Previously, approval dipped below 50%
… now, a plurality disapproves.
=============

According to the latest poll from left-leaning Reuters-IPSOS:

> 46% of American adults approve of the job that Biden is doing

> 49% disapprove … putting Biden 3 points underwater on net total approval

=============

Polling from right-leaning Trafalgar Group, confirms that a plurality disapprove of the job that Biden is doing … 46.5% approve, 47.6% disapprove.

Digging deeper. Biden’s net strong approval (a measure of intensity), is underwater by 14.9 points … 26.7% strongly approve, 41.6% strongly disapprove.

=============

Consistent with Trafalgar’s numbers, left-leaning Economist/You Gov poll puts Biden’s net strong approval 11 points underwater.

Digging still deeper into the poll’s internals…

> Blacks’ net strong approval — while still a sky high 29% — has dropped 5 percentage points

> Hispanics’ net strong approval dropped 4 percentage points … putting Biden 7 points underwater with Hispanics

> GOP strong disapproval jumped 7 points to 76% … and net strong disapproval increased by 9 percentage points to 73%

> While Dems’ net strong approval is still a sky high 48% … strong approval has dropped to 50%

Said differently, only half of Dems strongly approve of the job that Biden is doing.

=============

Gotta believe “the data” … right?

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh, Joe: Declining approval down to 50% …

August 16, 2021

And , intense disapproval is growing.
=============

In the past couple of weeks, there have been occasional polls scoring Biden’s job approval at or below 50% … generally attributed to Covid mis-steps, border chaos, spending-induced inflation, pay-to-don’t play unemployment benefits, reversion to MidEast oil dependence and now, the Afghan implosion and global disgrace.

Even CNN has noticed and had some Freudian on-air lapses:

More generally, the polling has reached consensus status.

In RCP’s most recent poll-of-polls, Biden’s job approval is down to 50% … and, disapproval has has increased by more than 10 percentage points since inauguration day.

And, Biden’s plight may be even worse than the top-line numbers indicate.

Let’s dig a little deeper.…

===============

Marketers often look at a metric called the “Net Favorability Index”.

That measure considers only the most extreme consumer perceptions: strongly approve, strongly disapprove … and subtracts the latter from the former.

The net number is a proxy for the intensity of consumer sentiment.

OK, so how’s Joe doing on his job’s net favorability metric?

Answer: Not so good.

According to survey data gathered by the left-leaning Economist -YouGov …

> 23% of Americans strongly approve of the job that Joe’s doing … 33% strongly disapprove … for a net disapproval of 10 percentage points.

In pollster-speak, he’s 10 points underwater.

=============

Digging a little deeper, Biden’s job approval is…

> 17 points underwater among men; 4 points underwater with women

> 34 points above water with Blacks, but 17 points underwater with Whites.

> 46 points above water with Dems, but 64 points underwater with Republicans.

Perhaps most important, Biden’s job approval is is only 14% among Independents … and his job disapproval with that group a whopping 40%.

Said differently, Biden is 26 points underwater with Independents.

Buyer’s remorse?

Completely predictable…

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh:: Pessimism has hit a majority of Americans …

July 27, 2021

Buyer’s remorse is gaining steam.
=============

More specifically, the ABC-Ipsos poll reports:

Currently, 55% are pessimistic about where the country is headed over the next year, while 45% are optimistic.
This marks a nearly 20-point decline in optimism from late April, the last time this question was asked. At that time, 64% were optimistic about the year ahead.
This growing pessimism is happening across all age groups, income levels, educational attainment, and partisan affiliation.
Optimism among Democrats has declined 18 percentage points since late April (89% to 71%).
Optimism among independents has declined by 26 percentage points (now 38%, from 64%).
The optimism-pessimism flip comes as Americans give Biden his lowest approval rating for his handling of the pandemic yet in ABC News/Ipsos polling.
Overall, slightly more than a third of Americans approve of the way the president is handling crime (39%), immigration and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (37%), and gun violence (37%).
On these three issues, just over one in three independents approve of the job Biden is doing.

Looks like Old Joe’s honeymoon may be over.

=============

P.S. For the record: ABC News isn’t affiliated with Fox News …

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Which party is responsible for America’s partisan divide?

July 22, 2021

Interesting analysis of Pew data by hard left-leaning blogger Kevin Drum…
=============

Below is a display of political leanings by party affiliation from 1994 to 2017… roughly 25 years.

Dems are the blue hump; GOP is the reddish brown.
Scale runs from 1 (“consistently liberal”) on the left to 10 (“consistently conservative”) on the right.

A couple of takeaways…

> Back in 1994 there was a substantial overlap of the humps (the dark brown hump in the middle) … meaning that there were a lot of “moderates” (from both parties) who clustered near the non-partisan median.

> There wasn’t much change from 1994 to 2004. But, from 2004 to 2017, that overlapping hump was substantially diminished … and the overall median was pulled left.

> More specifically, blogger Drum observes that:

Back in 1994, Dems median political leaning was a 5 on the scale; GOP scored a 6 … a very narrow gap in average views.

But in 2017, Dems median political leaning was a 2 on the scale; the GOP’s median score was a 6.5 … and the partisan gap widened to 4.5 points.

What changed?

Between 1994 and 2017, the GOP’s political leaning was relatively static … the GOP median barely budged and the shape hump was similar.

Said differently, the GOP didn’t become significantly more conservative.

But, between 1994 and 2017, the Dems’ political leaning shifted left by 3 points … and the hump became became more clustered … with a noticeably more peaked shape.

=============

In Drum’s words: “Democrats have moved significantly to the left on most hot button social issues while Republicans have moved only slightly right.”

And, his summary conclusion:

“It is not conservatives who have turned American politics into a partisan culture war battle. It is liberals.”

Depending on your personal political views, that may be a good thing or a bad thing…

Posted in Political polarization, Political polling, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

Is “buyer’s remorse” setting in?

July 12, 2021

Forbes: Biden’s approval eroding nationally
=============

Shortly after inauguration, Biden — basking in Trump-haters’ euphoria — was cruising with a 19 percentage point job approval rating — 55% favorable, 36% unfavorable.

That gap has narrowed to 8 points … still formidable but, as Forbes observes: “Recent polling shows cracks forming in President Joe Biden’s job approval numbers.”

Left-leaning The Hill puts it this way: “Biden’s mediocre polling could spell trouble.”

=============

Let’s look at the numbers…

Here’s the most recent RCP “Poll of Polls”.

The black line is approval; the red line is disapproval.

Note that the 6-month “erosion” is largely driven by the disapproval numbers (up 8 percentage points) … approval numbers have slid slowly (down 3 p.p.).

Also note that 6 of the 8 disapproval points change happened between January and April.

Pundits assert that’s because Biden campaigned as a moderate unifier, but quickly started governing as a wide left partisan.

People at the margins quickly started to notice.

In April and May, the numbers flattened as vaccination rates were surging, but as COVID came increasingly under some semblance of control, peoples’ priorities started to shift:

“During the past few months, a growing number of adults have expressed disapproval of Biden’s leadership on the economy, gun violence, taxation and corruption.” Forbes

Other pundits add the border mayhem and urban crime to the list.

Biden scores poorly on those issues.

And, there’s the orange-man factor,

The Hill observes:

Just as Biden’s positive polling and election win were based mostly on dislike of former President Trump, his current polling advantages may be just as shallow

Said differently, it may not be enough to not-be-Trump … and now people are forgetting about Trump and increasingly alert to how Biden-Harris are doing their jobs.

Hmmm.

Posted in Biden, Joe, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Studies: Fauci’s endorsement hardens net vaccine hesitancy…

April 21, 2021

Time to put him out to pasture?
=============

Dr. Fauci — the nation’s foremost political-scientist — continues to be ubiquitous on TV, pitching that getting vaccinated is a “no brainer” and that, to paraphrase, all Republicans are morons.

Loyal readers know that I’m not a big fan of Dr. Anthony Fauci — Biden’s chief political-scientist — who is always certain (but often wrong), occasionally evidence-based (except when the data goes against him), straight-shooting (depending on the political winds).

For full chapter, verse and sources re: Fauci’s many mis-steps, see

It’s official: Fauci whiffs, again! and

More: Fauci confirms “Trump was saying what we were telling him”

Here are a couple of more logs to throw on my Fauci fire.

==============

I’ve been doing a doing a deep dive into vaccine hesitancy — why some people are reluctant to take the Covid vaccines — and how the resistance might be softened.

Note: For the moment, I’ll skip over the thornier question: Should the resistance be softened? I’ll have more on that subject in future posts.

I came across the COVID States Project Report #36: Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine communication strategies.

Note: The 50-state COVID-19 project is “a multi-university group of researchers with expertise in computational social science, network science, public opinion polling, epidemiology, public health, communication, and political science.”

Here’s what caught my eye in the report…

The researchers queried study participants on whether public endorsements (i.e. televised vaccinations or public service messaging) by an array of personalities would make the subjects more or less likely to get vaccinated.

For example, predictably, an endorsement by Trump made Democrats less likely to get vaccinated and an endorsement by Obama (or Biden) made Republicans less likely.

Less predictably, a vaccine endorsement by Dr. Fauci resulted in only small reductions in vaccine resistance among Democrats, but increased and strengthened vaccine resistance among Republicans.

According to the researchers, the Fauci finding “contrasts with unspecified scientists and respondents’ personal physicians, whose endorsement reduce vaccine resistance across the board.”

So, the researchers conclude that Fauci has taken on a partisan association that has substantially reduced his credibility and effectiveness as a messenger.

=============

That finding brought to mind an interview with Frank Luntz who presented some focus group video footage re: vaccine hesitancy among Republicans.

Disclosure: The interview was on Fox; Luntz leans right but usually exhibits anti-Trump tendencies.

The headline from the focus group:

Click to view a worthwhile 1-minute video clip that brings the comments to life:

Luntz’s conclusion: Fauci — “who keeps changing his mind and moving the goalposts” — has no credibility whatsoever among Republicans … if you want reluctant people to get vaccinated, the message must be delivered by their personal physicians.

=============

Bottom line:

Both the impartial 50 States Project and the Luntz focus group reach the same fundamental conclusions:

> If you want to overcome vaccine hesitancy

> And, if Republicans are, in fact, the problem (i.e. more reluctant to get vaccinated than Democrats)

> Then one of the last people you want pitching the merits of getting vaccinated is Fauci

> Especially if he’s dishing inflammatory, condescending messages like “Getting vaccinated is a no-brainer”.

To summarize more bluntly: Yes – it’s time to put Fauci out to pasture.

Amen.

Posted in COVID - vaccine, Fauci, Dr. Anthony, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Biden: “Majority of Republican voters approve of the job I’m doing”

March 25, 2021

In Thursday’s press conference, President Biden laid pipe for killing the filibuster.

Among his rationale points:

While the Republicans in the Senate may not approve of what I’m doing, the majority of Republican voters do.

Say what?

Hate to burden him with facts, but…

According to Gallup, only 10% of Republican voters approve of the job he’s doing … 88% disapprove.

Gallup

So much for truth-telling, data-following and bringing the country together.

==============

P.S. What was up with the binder of written answers that he kept referencing?

Posted in Biden - gaffes & lies, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Studies: Fauci’s endorsement hardens net vaccine hesitancy…

March 19, 2021

Time to put him out to pasture?
=============

For full chapter, verse and sources re: Fauci’s many mis-steps, see

It’s official: Fauci whiffs, again! and

More: Fauci confirms “Trump was saying what we were telling him”

Yesterday, I got a couple of more logs to throw on my Fauci fire.

==============

First, in the morning, I was doing a deep dive into vaccine hesitancy — why some people are reluctant to take the Covid vaccines — and how the resistance might be softened.

Note: For the moment, I’ll skip over the thornier question: Should the resistance be softened? I’ll have more on that subject in future posts.

I came across the COVID States Project Report #36: Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine communication strategies.

Note: The 50-state COVID-19 project is “a multi-university group of researchers with expertise in computational social science, network science, public opinion polling, epidemiology, public health, communication, and political science.”

Here’s what caught my eye in the report…

For example, predictably, an endorsement by Trump made Democrats less likely to get vaccinated and an endorsement by Obama (or Biden) made Republicans less likely.

Less predictably, a vaccine endorsement by Dr. Fauci resulted in only small reductions in vaccine resistance among Democrats, but increased and strengthened vaccine resistance among Republicans.

According to the researchers, the Fauci finding “contrasts with unspecified scientists and respondents’ personal physicians, whose endorsement reduce vaccine resistance across the board.”

So, the researchers conclude that Fauci has taken on a partisan association that has substantially reduced his credibility and effectiveness as a messenger.

=============

Later in the day, I caught an interview with Frank Luntz who presented some focus group video footage re: vaccine hesitancy among Republicans.

Disclosure: The interview was on Fox; Luntz leans right but usually exhibits anti-Trump tendencies.

The headline from the focus group:

Click to view a worthwhile 1-minute video clip that brings the comments to life:

=============

Bottom line:

Both the impartial 50 States Project and the Luntz focus group reach the same fundamental conclusions:

> If you want to overcome vaccine hesitancy

> And, if Republicans are, in fact, the problem (i.e. more reluctant to get vaccinated than Democrats)

> Then one of the last people you want pitching the merits of getting vaccinated is Fauci

> Especially if he’s dishing inflammatory, condescending messages like “Getting vaccinated is a no-brainer”.

To summarize more bluntly: Yes – it’s time to put Fauci out to pasture.

Amen.

Posted in COVID - vaccine, Fauci, Dr. Anthony, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Most Admired: Trump edges Obama … trounces Biden

December 30, 2020

Gallup has released its annual “Admired Man” results…

What man that you have heard or read about, living today in any part of the world, do you admire most?

Trump edges Obama 18% to 15% … and triples Biden’s 6%.

Hmmm.

Of course, left-leaners minimize the results:

Gallup mentions that incumbent presidents often top the list
Some pundits point out that Dems split votes between Obama & Biden … and, their sum edges Trump 21% to 18%

Note that political scientist Anthony Fauci edged out Pope Francis for 4th place.

Double hmmm.

Posted in Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Survey: Was the election free of widespread fraud?

December 1, 2020

Rasmussen surveyed a variant of that question:

How likely is it that Democrats stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots in several states to ensure that Biden would win?

The answer may surprise some folks…

About half of all respondents (47%) thought it was somewhat or very likely that Dems stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots.

Predictably, 3 of 4 Republicans thought it was true.

The surprise: nearly 1 in 3 Democrats thought it was somewhat or very likely that Dems stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots.

Gee, even a statistically significant number of Dems think that there was widespread fraud.

Rasmussen didn’t ask the question, but I bet practically all of them think the ends justify the means.

So much for election integrity.

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

Anger in America …

November 25, 2020

Time to chill out, folks
=============

Pew ran large sample surveys in June and and November (after the election).

They asked participants about their feelings: hopefulness, fear, pride and anger.

The latter caught my eye.

Pew asked: In thinking about the state of the country, do you feel angry?

In June, 80% of Biden supporters — 4 out of every 5 — said that they felt ANGRY.

Let that sink in for a moment. ANGRY.

Since the election, their anger has subsided by about 1/3 … down 24 percentage points to 56%.

That level is about equal to the anger level of Trump supporters before and after the election.

=============

The scorching high temperature among Biden supporters doesn’t surprise me.

But, I am surprised that even more of their anger wasn’t dissipated by their apparently successful effort to oust the hated orange-haired man.

And, I was initially surprised by the majority level of anger among Trump supporters … before and after the election.

My take: They’re anger isn’t directly election-related.

Rather, their anger is probably a reflection of the state-of-the-nation: diminished law & order (i.e. unprosecuted fires & looting) and constrained freedom (e.g. lockdowns and mandates)

=============

The really bad news: The majority of both Biden and Trump supporters are still ANGRY.

Maybe Thanksgiving will a good opportunity for everybody to just chill out…

Let’s give it a try…

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Shocker: Americans uneasy about violence in the streets…

August 31, 2020

…. and, it’s showing up in the polls with big implications.
===============

Let’s start with the big picture…

Prior to each Presidential election, Pew surveys Americans to find out which issues are most important to them.

Below are Pew’s results for 2016 and 2020

Here’s how to interpret the chart and the key takeaways…

(more…)

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Pew: Plurality of protesters are young white Democrats…

June 26, 2020

Some interesting survey results from Pew Research:

> 40% of recent protesters are White; only 17% of are Black; Hispanics outnumber Blacks.

> 80% are under 50; of that group, the majority are under 30.

> Roughly 80% are Democrats.

Source: Pew

Digging a little deeper into the numbers…

(more…)

Posted in Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Let’s play “Are you ready to”

April 16, 2020

OK, relatively soon, the economy will be re-opened … though, I’m not exactly sure what that means.

Here’s the rub…

Just because some activity is allowed to open, doesn’t mean that the public will be partaking.

Based on a recent Gallup poll, the vast majority (70%) say they plan to take a “wait & see” approach to resuming activities.

That makes sense, and the poll is directionally indicative, but decisions will likely relate to specific activities.

So, let’s play “Are You Ready To”….

=================

For example, when the economy opens, will you be ready to…

Take a bus or subway?
Ride with others in an elevator?
Work in an open space office?
Meet with colleagues at work?
Participate in conference room meetings?
=============
Take a plane flight?
Take a cruise?
Stay in a hotel?
Go to a vacation resort?
=============
Go to church?
Dine in at a restaurant?
Go to the gym to workout?
Shop at a discount or department store?
Attend a class with 30 other students?
Go to a big crowd sporting event?
Go to a movie or a play?
Get a haircut?

You get the idea…

What other activities should be on the list?

==============
Thanks to MC for feeding this idea.

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Dr. Birx (and a majority of Americans) approve of Trump’s handling of coronavirus crisis

March 29, 2020

Last week, White House coronavirus response coordinator (and media-certified truth-teller) Dr. Deborah Birx praised President Donald Trump’s attentiveness and ability to analyze and integrate data, linking his capacity to do so with his business background.

Asked her perspective on Trump’s performance both with the public and “behind the scenes”, Dr. Birx responded in an interview:

He’s been so attentive to the scientific literature and the details and the data.

And I think his ability to analyze and integrate data, that comes out of his long history in business, [has] really been a real benefit during these discussions about medical issues.

Because, in the end, data is data, and he understands its importance.

And that all comes from the president seeing the data and then really directing these policies and the guidelines that go out to the American people.

Not bad for a guy who the media tags to be anti-science (and stupid).

And, based on the latest polls, the public seems to agree with Dr. Birx, not the media.

Here’s the data…

(more…)

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Polls & Surveys, Trump, President Donald J. | 1 Comment »

66% want John Bolton to testify … say, what?

January 15, 2020

Dems are touting a recent Quinnipiac University National Poll that found 66% of Americans want John Bolton to testify at the Senate’s impeachment trial.

Hmmm.

Call me skeptical on that one.

Here’s why?

(more…)

Posted in Impeachment, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Archive for the ‘Polls & Surveys’ Category

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