Birth rates & abortions … how many, where, who and how likely to be restrcted.
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U.S. Births
According to the CDC:
> The number of births has declined by an average of 2% per year since 2014.
> In 2020, 3,613,647 births were registered in the United States, down 4% from 2019
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Birth Rates
> The general fertility rate (GFR) for the United States in 2020 was 56.0 births per 1,000 females aged 15–44
The general fertility rate in 2020 was down 4% from 2019 … a record low rate for the nation
> Birth rates continued to increase for females in age groups 35 to 39 and 40 to 44 … a record high.
> Birth rate among teenagers continued its steep decline: In 2020 the birth rate for females aged 15–19 was 15.4 births per 1,000 …down 8% from 2019 ….and another record low
With those numbers as context, let’s look at the abortion numbers…
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Abortions
According to the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute:
> The number of reported abortions in the U.S. has declined over 40% since the 1980s
In 2020…
- 930,160 abortions were performed in the U.S..
- The abortion rate was 14.4 per 1,000 women (in child-bearing age groups)
- The ratio of abortions to pregnancies was 20.6% … about 1 in every 5 pregnancies
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Abortions impacted by Dobbs
According to CDC data (for 2019):
68% of all abortions were performed in blue states and 32% in red states … call it 2 out of 3 in blue states.
Blue states currently have the most liberal abortion rights which will, at a minimum, be retained … or, most likely, will be expanded.
Note: The vast majority of pro-choice protests seem to be happening blue states or, in some cases, in red states by by out-of-state blue staters
Less than 300,000 abortions per year (297,651 to be precise) are in blue states and, thus, at risk of being banned after Dobbs.
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Blue state “bans”
The number of full bans on abortion is likely to be far less than 300,000.
Why?
Every abortion ban enacted or proposed includes an exception to protect the life or health of the mother.
According to the CDC, 92% of abortions take place in the first trimester … 43% in the first 6 weeks.
Many (most? all?) blue states are likely to permit abortion in the first 6 weeks or the first trimester.
That cuts the number of abortions at risk of being banned down to about 150,000,at most … and, more likely, down to well under 100,000
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Other “ban” mitigating actions
According to Guttmacher, 54% of all abortions already are “medication abortions” (i.e. pills) that are FDA approved for use within the first 10 weeks of pregnancy.
My hunch: Those pills will likely flow across state lines, e.g. via difficult-to-stop online pharmacy sales.
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And finally, many companies have already declared that they will pay travel expenses for employees traveling to abortion-permitting states.
While obviously an added hassle for abortion seekers, it does provide access.
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And, for the record
14 weeks is the cut-off for “abortion on request” for practically all Europen0an countries.
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Those are the numbers from the CDC and the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute.
Draw your own conclusions…
The Homa Files 