Archive for the ‘Gallup’ Category

Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….

August 13, 2019

Controversial topic, so we’ll stick to the numbers…

Everybody knows that Obama’s words eased the racial divide … and that Trump’s words are blowing the gap wide open

Right?

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Well, according to Gallup, that’s only partially right…

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Gallup: Big government is biggest threat …

January 5, 2016

The mainstream media loves to bash big business and praise big government, but guess what … the American people don’t seem to buy it.

Each year, Gallup asks which is the bigger future threat: big business, big government or big labor.

For 50 years, big government has won that horse race … usually by a pretty big margin.

But, post 9-11 and during the Obama honeymoon period, the government-as-a-threat numbers dipped a bit.

That improvement was short-lived.

Most recently, the numbers have hit historic highs with about 70% thinking that big government is the biggest threat.

 

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The breakdown by political party affiliation has a few surprises to offer …

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Nums: Before today’s employment report …

September 6, 2013

Here are some data points in advance of this morning’s BLS Employment Report.

Gallup’s daily tracking report indicated a surge in the unemployment rate … averaging 8.5% … getting as high as 8.8% during the month.

 

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Source: Gallup

More data …

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Nums: Gallup says unemployment surging …

August 22, 2013

You may remember that the BLS reported tha, for July,  the unemployment rate continued its decline … all the way down to 7.4%.

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Good news. right.

Not so fast …

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Gallup: Unemployment rate trending up, over 8%.

March 7, 2013

Seems like many folks have lost interest, but tomorrow, the official BLS employment numbers come out.

Initial unemployment claims are still hovering around 350,000 per week … suggesting that the employment picture is staying pretty stable.

As a cross-check to the government numbers, I like to compare them with Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

Hmmm.

Since mid-February , Gallup’s measured unemployment rate has been rising and, in the past week or so, has broken back up above 8%

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Wonder what the BLS will report tomorrow.

I’m betting the under …

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Boing!

October 8, 2012

Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll says that Romney got a 5-point bounce from the debates … Mitt +2, Obama –3 … putting the race dead even.

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What’s up with Gallup?

October 1, 2012

Like most Romney supporters, I’m grabbing at straws to find hope in the recent polls.

Gallup has some recent numbers that have me scratching my head.

Last week, according to Gallup, Obama’s approval rating skyrocketed.

According to my analysis, Gallup had Obama’s approval jumping by an unprecedented 12 points in a single day.

Technical note: To isolate daily movements, I “unpacked” the 3 -day averages to see what the newest day’s score would have had to be to move the 3-day average.

Really?

The economy’s tanking and the Middle East is afire … and Obama’s approval jumps.

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Just doesn’t pass the smell test.

So, I did a little digging.

Here’s an article I picked up from earlier in the month.

Senior Obama Campaign adviser David Axelrod reportedly contacted The Gallup Organization to discuss the company’s research methodology after their poll’s findings were unfavorable to the President.

After declining to adjust their methodology, Gallup was named in an unrelated lawsuit by the DOJ. 

Probably unrelated to the numbers, but sure looks funny.

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Unemployment rate down to 8.3% … hmmm.

February 6, 2012

The Feds reported 243,000 new jobs in January … driving the unemployment rate down to 8.3%

Clear evidence that we’re on a roll, right?

Not so fast.

First, numerous sources have pointed out that another 1.2 million people got discouraged and stopped looking for work. They’re no longer counted as unemployed.

Second, as it does every year, the government revised its statistical methodology for the  January report.  The BLS footnotes say “As a result, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods.”

Hmmm.

Morw specifically, even the NY Times asks: Is the number real ?

How many jobs did the American economy add in January?

The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment.

The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs.

The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions.

 If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.

Double hmmm.

That’s why  I like to track Gallup’s unemployment estimates.  Over time, they’ve seemed reliable and — call me cynical — but, they’re less likely to be subject to political manipulation.

For openers, here’s what Gallup said prior to the government release:

The U.S. government’s January unemployment rate that it will report Friday morning will be based largely on mid-month conditions.

The mid-month reading normally provides a pretty good estimate of the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate for the month.

At mid-January, Gallup reported that its unemployment rate had declined to 8.3%, based on data collected through the 15th of the month.

OK, that squares with the Feds number.

But, importantly, Gallup also notes:

Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show deterioration since mid-January.

While the unemployment rate of 8.6% for January is up only modestly from December, this overall increase subsumes the more negative trend of the most recent weeks.

In turn, this also seems consistent with Wednesday’s ADP report showing less job growth in January than in the prior month.

English translation: Expect February’s unemployment rate (reported first week of March)  to bounce back up … unless there’s a flurry of new hiring in early February.

Here’s the data …

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Ken’s Take:

Here’s what I said before, and I stand by it !

Pundits have been saying that Obama will be ok with a high unemployment rate in 2012 as long as the trajectory is in the right direction. That is, that unemployment is coming down.

Here’s my scenario: unemployment will creep back up and Obama will be facing a high unemployment rate that is rising.

That’s not good for the O-team.

Politically, Obama might have been better off if the rate had stayed closer to 9% for a while … he may be in the awkward position of having a high unemployment rate that’s going in the wrong direction.

It’ll be interesting …

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