Numbers: Some context for the abortion debate.

Birth rates & abortions … how many, where, who and how likely to be restrcted.

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U.S. Births

According to the CDC:

> The number of births has declined by an average of 2% per year since 2014.

> In 2020, 3,613,647 births were registered in the United States, down 4% from 2019

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Birth Rates

> The general fertility rate (GFR) for the United States in 2020 was 56.0 births per 1,000 females aged 15–44

The general fertility rate in 2020 was  down 4% from 2019 … a record low rate for the nation

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> Birth rates continued to increase for females in age groups 35 to 39 and 40 to 44a record high.

> Birth rate among teenagers continued its steep decline: In 2020 the birth rate for females aged 15–19 was 15.4 births per 1,000 …down 8% from 2019 ….and another record low

With those numbers as context, let’s look at the abortion numbers…

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Abortions

According to the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute:

> The number of reported abortions in the U.S. has declined over 40% since the 1980s

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In 2020…

  • 930,160 abortions were performed in the U.S..
  • The abortion rate was 14.4 per 1,000 women (in child-bearing age groups)
  • The ratio of abortions to pregnancies was 20.6% … about 1 in every 5 pregnancies

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Abortions impacted by Dobbs

According to CDC data (for 2019):

68% of all abortions were performed in blue states and 32% in red states … call it 2 out of 3 in blue states.

Blue states currently have the most liberal abortion rights which will, at a minimum, be retained … or, most likely, will be expanded.

Note: The vast majority of pro-choice protests seem to be happening blue states or, in some cases, in red states by by out-of-state blue staters

Less than 300,000 abortions per year (297,651 to be precise) are in blue states and, thus,  at  risk of being banned after Dobbs.

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Blue state “bans”

The number of full bans on abortion is likely to be far less than 300,000.

Why?

Every abortion ban enacted or proposed includes an exception to protect the life or health of the mother.

According to the CDC, 92% of abortions take place in the first trimester … 43% in the first 6 weeks.

Many (most? all?) blue states are likely to permit abortion in the first 6 weeks or the first trimester.

That cuts the number of abortions at risk of being banned down to about 150,000,at most … and, more likely, down to well under 100,000

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Other “ban” mitigating actions

According to Guttmacher, 54% of all abortions already are “medication abortions” (i.e. pills) that are FDA approved for use within the first 10 weeks of pregnancy.

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My hunch: Those pills will likely flow across state lines, e.g. via difficult-to-stop online pharmacy sales.

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And finally, many companies have already declared that they will pay travel expenses for employees traveling to abortion-permitting states.

While obviously an added hassle for abortion seekers, it does provide access.

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And, for the record

14 weeks is the cut-off for “abortion on request” for practically all Europen0an countries.

Maher noted that the majority of the U.S. still has more abortion freedoms than a lot of countries in Europe, where they set a shorter time-frame on abortion limits
Source

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Those are the numbers from the CDC and the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute.

Draw your own conclusions…

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