Archive for the ‘Virginia politics’ Category

Don’t fret, Dems: Youngkin will be a Hogan, not a Trump.

November 4, 2021

Gov. Hogan is thriving in deep-blue Maryland

=============

I’ve lived for years in Virginia  and Maryland.

So, I’ve had a keen interest in both states’ politics.

My view: There are compelling commonalities between Gov. Hogan (Maryland) and Governor-elect Youngkin (Virginia).

Specifically…

> Both Hogan and Youngkin are Republicans in blue states.

> Both were successful business people … Hogan in real estate, Youngkin is private equity.

> Both were big underdogs in their election campaigns.

> Both adopted a similar political modus operandi.

The WSJ’s Peggy Noonan:puts it this way:

1. Be a respectable, capable-seeming person who focuses on legitimate local issues (schools, taxes.)

2. Don’t say crazy things.

3. Don’t insult Donald Trump but do everything to keep him away.

=============

For the record:

Hogan was elected in 2014 and is winding down his 2nd and last allowed term as governor.

How has he done?

First, the most obvious: he was re-elected in one of the bluest of blue states.

Why?

He has been a model of balance and rationality.

He doesn’t do dumb things … and. in a divided government,  he roadblocks dumb things that Dems want to do  … protecting them from themselves (and their innate over-reach tendencies) … and protecting all Marylanders from them.

“Hogan has lived up to his promise to be a good conservative manager and not an ideologue …voters have rewarded him for living up to his promise.” Source

His current approval rating is a robust 68%.

That compares quite favorably to Maryland’s Democratic senators … Chris Van Hollen (44%) … and Ben Cardin (46%).

Some pundits think hat Hogan might be a credible candidate for president in 2024

I agree … what he lacks in charisma, he makes up for in reasonableness, experience (in both biz and government) and performance.

=============

Bottom line:

Youngkin can rejoice that Virginia voters were as rational in 2021 as Maryland voters were in 2014 and 2018.

With Youngkin heading to the governor’s mansion, Virginia Democrats can relax.

He’ll be way more Hogan than Trumps.

That’s a good thing.

The Virginia election in four pictures…

November 3, 2021

There were a couple of events (and people) who impacted Youngkin’s election victory.
=============

Father of Assaulted Schoolgirl

image

A Loudoun County father is arrested for “disrupting” a school board meeting by calling attention to his daughter’s sexual assault in a girls bathroom.

School board members denied the claim, but … the perpetrator — a gender-fluid, biological male wearing a skirt — was subsequently convicted of the crime.

==============

Merrick Garland

image

AG Merrick Garland responded to a National School Board letter, which was coordinated with  White House staffers, calling parents “domestic terrorists” by issuing orders to District Attorneys and the FBI to surveil parents at school board meetings and crack down with the full force of law … then expresses bewilderment that his action might be interpreted as suppressing parents’ freedom of speech.

=============

President Biden

image

 

Along with other Democratic personalities (Obama, Harris, Abrams, et. al.), President Biden swept in to rally support for McAuliffe.

His cameo reminded voters that McAuliffe is inextricably intertwined with him and his policies … policies that 77% of Americans think have the country moving in the wrong direction.

McAuliffe dreamed of a similar picture showing Youngkin and Trump joined at the hip … but his wildest dreams never materialized.

============

Randi Weingarten

image

McAuliffe literally closed out his campaign by middle-fingering parents concerned about their children’s education.

At his final campaign rally, McAuliffe showcased his education alter ego, Randi Weingarten … President of the American Federation of Teachers President.

Weingarten personifies the clout of teachers’ unions (over parental involvement) … and, is probably the person who bears “the most responsibility for many school systems’ total abdication of responsibility to families during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Source

=============

Bottom line: Youngkin was a strong candidate who ran a great campaign  … but he might not have prevailed without some help from McAuliffe’s “friends”.

=============

P.S. And, don’t forget that Facebook and Twitter banned Trump on social media … essentially silencing him during the campaign.

Power to the parents!

November 3, 2021

Majority of Virginians love their kids more than they hate Trump…
============

McAuliffe hasn’t conceded (yet), but all major news outlets (including AP, NYT, CNN and MSNBC) have declared Youngkin the winner.

Youngkin’s margin of victory 2.1%, buoyed by 57% of suburban women who turned the page on Trump and voted in the best interests of their children by reasserting their parental involvement in education.

image

=============

Northern Virginia

Last week week, we spotlighted the Northern Virginia counties (Fairfax and Loudoun), reminding readers that:

In 2020, Biden walked away with a 10 point statewide win … easily carrying the predominantly Black precincts in southeast Virginia (Richmond, Virginia Beach) … and crushing Trump in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County by 40 points, Loudoun County by 20 points).

And, we predicted:

If Youngkin slices, say, 10 points off the GOP disadvantage in Loudoun County (narrowing the gap from 20 to 10 points) and Fairfax County (from 40 to 30 points) … then Younkin very likely pulls off an upset.

Well, here’s what happened…

=============

Fairfax County

In Fairfax County, Youngkin did, in fact, cut the gap by 10.1 percentage points … from 40% to 29.9%.

image

==============

Loudoun County

Ditto in Loudoun County, where Youngkin narrowed the gap 9.5 percentage points …  from 20% to 10.5%.

image

=============

Bottom line: Youngkin crushed McAuliffe in the vast majority of Virginia counties, turned some blue counties red, and made the necessary inroads in Northern Virginia.

click for the NYT interactive map
image

VA Gov Race: Final Polls

November 2, 2021

Just for the record…

The 538 (Nate Silver) poll-of-polls is weighted by “quality of the poll” and recency has Youngkin up by just under 1%.

image

==============

The RCP poll-of-polls has Youngkin up by 1.7%

image

> Neither candidate breaks the magic 50% level

> The 3 most recent polls average Youngkin up by 44%

> Dropping the Fox Poll cuts Youngkin’s advantage to .4%

Reminder: in 2020, liberals praised the Fox News stats crew for calling Arizona early on election night.

==============

The Trafalgar Group — right-leaning, rated “A” by 538 for reliability, most recent poll — has Youngkin up by 2.3%

image

==============

Averaging the 3 above sources give Younkin about a 1.5% advantage.

If 1.5% is the over/under, I’m betting the over (way over)

=============

Reminder: Fairfax County is Deep Blue, heavily populated with gov’t employees & contractors, and always posts results late … so, Younkin supporters shouldn’t do touchdown dances prematurely.

Still More: Northern Virginians will decide next week’s election…

October 29, 2021

Education gets the headlines, but vax mandates may be the determining X-factor in next week’s gubernatorial election.

Here’s why & how…
=============

In a prior post, we highlighted the importance of Northern Virginia counties in national and statewide elections … especially this year, with McAuliffe vying with Youngkin for governor.

As James Freeman puts it in the WSJ:

Given the growth of the Beltway swamp, Virginia’s largely government-dependent voters now regularly vote for the leftwardmost major-party candidate in statewide elections.

Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

image_thumb[5]

Usually, they’re a lock for big government and liberal Dem candidates.

But, this year, I’m wondering if these usually reliable government-dependent voters might sit out this year’s gubernatorial election or, god forbid, cast their secret ballots for Youngkin.

Yesterday, we posted that education issues (e.g. curriculum and “social environment”) are front and center … and may work to Youngkin’s advantage.

Today, let’s hit another potential X-factor: vaccine mandates.

In this case, it isn’t just about “vax or not” philosophy … it’s about the impact on and reaction of a couple of hundred thousand likely voters.

=============

The Federal Employees’ Mandate

On September 9, Biden ordered that all Executive Branch employees and all government contractors that conduct business with the federal government must be vaccinated.

Note: More than 1 million unionized postal employees were exempted from the order and “accommodations” were expected for legitimate health or religions reasons

There was to be no option for weekly testing for those impacted by the Executive Orders.

Get vaccinated. Period.

At the time, Biden indicated that Federal employees would have  75 days to comply. Source

Later clarified, Federal employees were given until Nov. 22 to be fully vaccinated in accordance with Biden’s mandate, Source

That deadline is bearing down on unvaccinated government employees.

How many?

Let’s run some numbers…

==============

DC area gov’t-related employment

Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population (over 2 million)  with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

How many of them are there?

As of 2017, the federal government directly employed 364,000 people in the D.C. area.

While Uncle Sam is the largest single employer in the region, D.C. is a very white-collar town, with “professional, business and other services” being the largest employer by industry.

All told, 960,500 area jobs fall into that category.  Source

Let’s update to 2021 and round up … and call it 1.5 million government-related employees … living in DC, Maryland and, oh yeah, Northern Virginia.

Let’s assume that they are spread evenly across the 3 locales.

That puts about 500,000 government-related employees living in Northern Virginia … all subjected to Biden’s vaccine mandate!

That’s about 1/4 of NOVA’s population (around 2 million) …  which is probably a low side estimate …but let’s go with it.

==============
How many vaccinated

You may have noticed that the Feds are reluctant to disclose how many of “their own” have been vaccinated.

Back in May, a congressional committee asked Fauci and  directors from the  CDC  and FDA how many of their employees were vaccinated.

Fauci said “a slim majority”, the FDA guy said “about the same”, and CDC Director Wolensky had no idea.

See: Fauci says slim majority of NIH employees have been vaxed

Surely that number is higher now.

Let’s assume that the number is 60%

That leaves about 200,000 unvaccinated employees living in Northern Virginia.

How many of them are pissed off?

By definition, all 200,000 have demonstrated vaccine hesitancy. Evidenced by the fact that they haven’t voluntarily gotten vaccinated.

What percentage of them are pissed off that they’re being forced to take a shot that they don’t want?

Let’s assume that it’s 50-50. … with half (of the 200,000) getting jabbed to keep their jobs and “moving on” … and  with the other half either pissed that they had no practical option and complied … or standing strong and facing termination.

That leaves about 100,000 government-related employees  living in Northern Virginia with a Biden placed chip on their shoulder.

Maybe they jump ship on the Dems this time.

=============

So what?

For reference, about 500,000 Northern Virginians voted in the 2017 gubernatorial election.

In stats-speak, that makes 100,000 votes  statistically significant.

Haircut that number in half and you still get the 10 point NOVA shift that alone vould propel Youngkin to victory.

That’s a material X-factor, but, it’s being obscured by the power of the education issue.

==============

Bottom line: In this tight race, and given the education and vaccine X-factors, the Northern Virginia counties (Loudoun and Fairfax) are likely to determine the election.

My bet: Youngkin wins decisively.

More: Northern Virginians will decide next week’s election…

October 28, 2021

Education is one of the  x-factors in next week’s gubernatorial election.
=============

In a prior post, we highlighted the importance of Northern Virginia counties in national and statewide elections … especially this year, with McAuliffe vying with Youngkin for governor.

As James Freeman puts it in the WSJ:

Given the growth of the Beltway swamp, Virginia’s largely government-dependent voters now regularly vote for the leftwardmost major-party candidate in statewide elections. 

For example, in 2020, Biden walked away with a 10 point win over Trump … easily carrying the predominantly Black precincts in southeast Virginia (Richmond , Virginia Beach) … and crushing Trump in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County by 40 points, Loudoun County by 20 points).

image_thumb5_thumb

We mused: If all non-NOVA counties vote along recent historical patterns and Youngkin slices, say, 10 points off the GOP 20 point disadvantage in Loudoun … and 10 points off its 40 point disadvantage in Fairfax Counties … then Younkin very likely pulls off the upset.

Sounds like a heavy lift, but it may be possible because of  2 electoral X-factors: education and vaccine mandates.

Today, let’s dig into the education issue…

==============

The Education X-factor

Unless you’re permanently glued to CNN-MSNBC you know that education has emerged as a hot-button issue in the VA gubernatorial election.

Initially, the central issue was the lack of in-person schooling during the pandemic … with many parents pushing to get their kids back in school.

Then, peering through the remote learning  window, parents got exposed to and engaged in their kids’ education. For many, it wasn’t a pretty picture.

Now, many parents are “concerned” about curriculum changes (e.g. CRT and “equity math”) … and schools’ “social experience” policies (e.g. masks and gender-mixed teams and bathrooms).

=============

Ground Zero

Loudoun County is ground zero for educational unrest.

In a flashpoint case, a self-proclaimed “gender-fluid”, biological male has been convicted of sexual assault for entering a girls’ bathroom wearing a skirt and sexually assaulting a 9th grade girl.  Source

The school board claimed no knowledge of the situation when confronted by the girl’s father … who was subsequently arrested.

But, an email trail revealed that the school board had been apprised of the situation but had taken no action, save for transferring the perpetrator to another school … where he/she is alleged to have committed a  similar crime.

Parents were outraged.

The parents’ level of “concern” got them labeled “domestic terrorists” by the National School Boards Association …  and put on an FBI watch list by AG Merrick Garland.

The NSBA subsequently admitted that: “There was no justification for some of the language included in the letter” … and they apologized “for the strain and stress this situation has caused”.

AG Garland has yet to retract his order and hasn’t told the FBI to stand down.  Source

Former President Obama — stumping for McAuliffe — called parents’ concerns “fake cultural issues”

That insensitive wisecrack energized Loudoun County parents  … and,  their children

Evidence: Walk-outs at several Loudoun County high schools.

image5

Specifically, the Washington Post reports that “More than 2500 students from at least 20 schools, including Riverside High School, Briar Woods High School and Lightridge High School, took part in walk-outs

For them, the issue is very real …a nd resonating.

.==============

Calibrating the Concern

While Loudoun County (the fastest growing county in America) has gotten most of the headlines, parents’ concerns are also evident is Fairfax County (large population, immediately proximate to DC).

The evidence:

“Enrollment in Fairfax County’s public schools continues to dip, having now fallen more than 10,000 students since the onset of the pandemic.” Source

That’s a loss of about 5% of Fairfax County Public Schools’ student body, as parents move their kids to private schools (pricey and parochial) … or opt to home school them.

Those 10,000 or so parents have already voted once with their feet.

How many share their feelings?

============

Bottom line: The education issue isn’t as former President Obama calls it: “a fake cultural issue”.

It’s real,  it’s emotional and it’s relatively broad-based in Virginia … even in Dem-friendly Northern Virginia.

We’ll see how that plays out next week.

============

Tomorrow, the other NOVA x-factor vaccine mandates

Northern Virginians will decide next week’s election…

October 27, 2021

.. and, there are two X-factors that may sway their gubernatorial votes.
=============

Today, let’s set the context…

In a couple of recent marquee elections, GOP candidates were leading on election night as vote tallies rolled in … only to be swamped when the vote totals from Northern Virginia  got posted.

That was the case in the 2020 presidential race.

The vote totals were pretty even in prime time.

Trump was hanging in, then: boom!

Northern Virginia  votes were posted and Biden walked away with a 10 point statewide win … easily carrying the predominantly Black precincts in southeast Virginia (Richmond, Virginia Beach) … and crushing Trump in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County by 40 points, Loudoun County by 20 points).

image

You see, Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

Usually, they’re a lock for big government and liberal Dem candidates.

As James Freeman puts it in the WSJ:

Given the growth of the Beltway swamp, Virginia’s largely government-dependent voters now regularly vote for the leftwardmost major-party candidate in statewide elections.

It makes complete sense.

Why would elite government-dependent voters bite the hand that feeds them?

==============

But, this year, I’m wondering if these usually reliable government-dependent voters might sit out this year’s gubernatorial election or, god forbid, cast their secret ballots for Youngkin.

Cutting to the chase ..

The polls are saying that Black support for Biden still very high, but waning (from over 80% to under 70% in many polls)… and there’s little enthusiasm among Blacks for McAuliffe (think: turnout).  That’s why Obama, Harris, Abrams, Booker are all appearing in campaign cameos.

The many rural red counties are a lock for Younkin, but turnout may be an issue since Trump isn’t on the ballot (despite what Obama and McAuliffe are chanting).

So, it all boils down to Northern Virginia.

If Youngkin slices, say, 10 points off the GOP disadvantage in Loudoun County (narrowing the gap from 20 to 10 points) and Fairfax County (from 40 to 30 points) … then Younkin very likely pulls off an upset.

Sounds like a heavy lift, but it may be possible.

Why?

Because of  2 electoral X-factors: education and vaccine mandates.

I’ll cover these electoral X-factors separately, tomorrow and Friday…

Nums: The Virginia gubernatorial race…

October 15, 2021

Close race … Trump and education are on the ballot.
==============

Let’s look at the numbers…

According to a recent CBS-YouGov Poll, the Virginia governor’s race — pitting former governor and hard core Dem politico, Terry McAuliffe against a political novice, wealthy former private equity exec, Glenn Youngkin  — is within the margin of error.

image

===============

Independents lean to Youngkin by 9 percentage points.

image

===============

Party-affiliated likely voters are deeply entrenched … making relative turnout levels pivotal.

image

=============

Likely Youngkin voters are more enthusiastic about voting … suggesting a turnout advantage for Younkin.

Note: McAuliffe has enlisted Obama to campaign and rally the Dem-dependable black vote.

image

=============

Typical of off-year elections, to date, early voting totals are substantially lower than they were in the 2020 presidential election.

Note: Early voting is typically dominated by Dems … GOP voters tend to in-person voting, especially on election day.

image

==============

Based on the poll’s “internals”, CBS concludes:

image

I agree that the race is tight, but the Dems have a history of winning the tight games in Virginia.

That said, I have a different slant on the “drivers”.

Hate is a very strong emotion, and Trump-hate is still rampant in Northern Virginia … which is dominated by Federal employees, government contractors and liberal elites.

Somethin to watch: Only a slim majority of Federal government employees were vaccinated before Biden’s mandate. Will there be a SWA-like backlash as enforcement date looms closer?

Loudoun County is ground zero for the education issue: Should parents have a role in their children’s education or are they “domestic terrorists” if they challenge school boards and teachers’ unions?

Something to watch: Loudoun County is the fastest growing county in the U.S.  Will the “school board moms” be large enough in numbers and compelling enough in message to rally educated suburban women to love their kids more than they hate Trump?

To that point…

Recently in a debate, McAuliffe declared: “I don’t think that parents should be telling schools what to teach”

According to a recent Trafalgar poll … 19.9% of Virginians “strongly agree” with McAuliffe … 45.7 “strongly disagree.  That’s a 25.8 percentage point gap!

This race will be interesting to watch … and, possibly a harbinger of things to come in 2020.

West Virginia: Rebounding … and considering a name change.

February 11, 2019

According to the WSJ:

No state suffered more from the Obama regulatory assault than West Virginia as coal production and business investment plunged.

West Virginia’s revival started in early 2017 as coal and natural-gas production picked up.

Exports and the Trump Administration’s deregulation have lifted the industry.

Employment is up, wages are up … dependence on government programs is (e.g. food stamps, Medicaid) is down substantially,

image

Now that West Virginia is back on it’s feet, there’s talk of a grassroots campaign for the state changing it’s name…

(more…)

WaPo: Majority of Virginia’s African-Americans say Northam should not resign.

February 11, 2019

Some interesting results from a weekend WaPo poll…

Overall, Virginians are split re: whether or not the blackface-revealed governor should resign.

Despite calls for his resignation from national Dems (Harris, Booker, Warren, etc.), a majority of Dems say he shouldn’t resign; a majority of Republicans and Independents say he should.

There was one head-scratcher in the poll results…

image

Whites are evenly spilt on whether Northam should resign, but — Virginia’s African-Americans say that Northam should not  resign … by a margin of about 2 to 1.

What’s up with that?

Some hypotheses:

1) Blacks aren’t as offended by these long ago blackface transgressions as their visible spokespeople profess and are willing to forgive and forget

2) Support for Democratic policies and politicians outweighs any offense taken by these transgressions.

Regardless, expect Northam to be re-energized in his battle to hold on to power…

===============

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

>> Latest Posts

#HomaFiles

Will Amazon ditch Virginia?

February 8, 2019

Jeff Bezos may dictate how Virginia’s political mess gets cleaned up
============

Ask yourself a simple question:

If this front page had appeared a couple of months ago, would Bezos (Amazon) have picked Northern Virginia for HQ2?

image

I’d bet the under on that one.

Which begs a couple of questions….

(more…)

Virginia Dems: “Hoisted by their own petards”

February 7, 2019

And, some predictions re: the likely outcome.
===============

First, a translation of the classic phrase…

Contrary to common misunderstanding, the phrase does not mean getting lifted by one’s underwear … wedgie and all.

Rather, a ”petard” was an ancient bomb-like device used to blow open walls or gates.

image

So, to be “hoisted by one’s own petard” is to be injured by the device that you intended to use to injure others.

Got it?

=============

OK, so how have Virginia Democrats hoisted themselves by their own petards?

(more…)


%d bloggers like this: