Archive for the ‘Virginia politics’ Category

Nums: The Virginia gubernatorial race…

October 15, 2021

Close race … Trump and education are on the ballot.

Let’s look at the numbers…

According to a recent CBS-YouGov Poll, the Virginia governor’s race — pitting former governor and hard core Dem politico, Terry McAuliffe against a political novice, wealthy former private equity exec, Glenn Youngkin  — is within the margin of error.



Independents lean to Youngkin by 9 percentage points.



Party-affiliated likely voters are deeply entrenched … making relative turnout levels pivotal.



Likely Youngkin voters are more enthusiastic about voting … suggesting a turnout advantage for Younkin.

Note: McAuliffe has enlisted Obama to campaign and rally the Dem-dependable black vote.



Typical of off-year elections, to date, early voting totals are substantially lower than they were in the 2020 presidential election.

Note: Early voting is typically dominated by Dems … GOP voters tend to in-person voting, especially on election day.



Based on the poll’s “internals”, CBS concludes:


I agree that the race is tight, but the Dems have a history of winning the tight games in Virginia.

That said, I have a different slant on the “drivers”.

Hate is a very strong emotion, and Trump-hate is still rampant in Northern Virginia … which is dominated by Federal employees, government contractors and liberal elites.

Somethin to watch: Only a slim majority of Federal government employees were vaccinated before Biden’s mandate. Will there be a SWA-like backlash as enforcement date looms closer?

Loudoun County is ground zero for the education issue: Should parents have a role in their children’s education or are they “domestic terrorists” if they challenge school boards and teachers’ unions?

Something to watch: Loudoun County is the fastest growing county in the U.S.  Will the “school board moms” be large enough in numbers and compelling enough in message to rally educated suburban women to love their kids more than they hate Trump?

To that point…

Recently in a debate, McAuliffe declared: “I don’t think that parents should be telling schools what to teach”

According to a recent Trafalgar poll … 19.9% of Virginians “strongly agree” with McAuliffe … 45.7 “strongly disagree.  That’s a 25.8 percentage point gap!

This race will be interesting to watch … and, possibly a harbinger of things to come in 2020.

West Virginia: Rebounding … and considering a name change.

February 11, 2019

According to the WSJ:

No state suffered more from the Obama regulatory assault than West Virginia as coal production and business investment plunged.

West Virginia’s revival started in early 2017 as coal and natural-gas production picked up.

Exports and the Trump Administration’s deregulation have lifted the industry.

Employment is up, wages are up … dependence on government programs is (e.g. food stamps, Medicaid) is down substantially,


Now that West Virginia is back on it’s feet, there’s talk of a grassroots campaign for the state changing it’s name…


WaPo: Majority of Virginia’s African-Americans say Northam should not resign.

February 11, 2019

Some interesting results from a weekend WaPo poll…

Overall, Virginians are split re: whether or not the blackface-revealed governor should resign.

Despite calls for his resignation from national Dems (Harris, Booker, Warren, etc.), a majority of Dems say he shouldn’t resign; a majority of Republicans and Independents say he should.

There was one head-scratcher in the poll results…


Whites are evenly spilt on whether Northam should resign, but — Virginia’s African-Americans say that Northam should not  resign … by a margin of about 2 to 1.

What’s up with that?

Some hypotheses:

1) Blacks aren’t as offended by these long ago blackface transgressions as their visible spokespeople profess and are willing to forgive and forget

2) Support for Democratic policies and politicians outweighs any offense taken by these transgressions.

Regardless, expect Northam to be re-energized in his battle to hold on to power…


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Will Amazon ditch Virginia?

February 8, 2019

Jeff Bezos may dictate how Virginia’s political mess gets cleaned up

Ask yourself a simple question:

If this front page had appeared a couple of months ago, would Bezos (Amazon) have picked Northern Virginia for HQ2?


I’d bet the under on that one.

Which begs a couple of questions….


Virginia Dems: “Hoisted by their own petards”

February 7, 2019

And, some predictions re: the likely outcome.

First, a translation of the classic phrase…

Contrary to common misunderstanding, the phrase does not mean getting lifted by one’s underwear … wedgie and all.

Rather, a ”petard” was an ancient bomb-like device used to blow open walls or gates.


So, to be “hoisted by one’s own petard” is to be injured by the device that you intended to use to injure others.

Got it?


OK, so how have Virginia Democrats hoisted themselves by their own petards?


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