Close race … Trump and education are on the ballot.
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Let’s look at the numbers…
According to a recent CBS-YouGov Poll, the Virginia governor’s race — pitting former governor and hard core Dem politico, Terry McAuliffe against a political novice, wealthy former private equity exec, Glenn Youngkin — is within the margin of error.
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Independents lean to Youngkin by 9 percentage points.
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Party-affiliated likely voters are deeply entrenched … making relative turnout levels pivotal.
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Likely Youngkin voters are more enthusiastic about voting … suggesting a turnout advantage for Younkin.
Note: McAuliffe has enlisted Obama to campaign and rally the Dem-dependable black vote.
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Typical of off-year elections, to date, early voting totals are substantially lower than they were in the 2020 presidential election.
Note: Early voting is typically dominated by Dems … GOP voters tend to in-person voting, especially on election day.
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Based on the poll’s “internals”, CBS concludes:
I agree that the race is tight, but the Dems have a history of winning the tight games in Virginia.
That said, I have a different slant on the “drivers”.
Hate is a very strong emotion, and Trump-hate is still rampant in Northern Virginia … which is dominated by Federal employees, government contractors and liberal elites.
Somethin to watch: Only a slim majority of Federal government employees were vaccinated before Biden’s mandate. Will there be a SWA-like backlash as enforcement date looms closer?
Loudoun County is ground zero for the education issue: Should parents have a role in their children’s education or are they “domestic terrorists” if they challenge school boards and teachers’ unions?
Something to watch: Loudoun County is the fastest growing county in the U.S. Will the “school board moms” be large enough in numbers and compelling enough in message to rally educated suburban women to love their kids more than they hate Trump?
To that point…
Recently in a debate, McAuliffe declared: “I don’t think that parents should be telling schools what to teach”
According to a recent Trafalgar poll … 19.9% of Virginians “strongly agree” with McAuliffe … 45.7 “strongly disagree. That’s a 25.8 percentage point gap!
This race will be interesting to watch … and, possibly a harbinger of things to come in 2020.
