The Homa Files

Majority of Virginians love their kids more than they hate Trump…
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McAuliffe hasn’t conceded (yet), but all major news outlets (including AP, NYT, CNN and MSNBC) have declared Youngkin the winner.

Youngkin’s margin of victory 2.1%, buoyed by 57% of suburban women who turned the page on Trump and voted in the best interests of their children by reasserting their parental involvement in education.

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Northern Virginia

Last week week, we spotlighted the Northern Virginia counties (Fairfax and Loudoun), reminding readers that:

In 2020, Biden walked away with a 10 point statewide win … easily carrying the predominantly Black precincts in southeast Virginia (Richmond, Virginia Beach) … and crushing Trump in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County by 40 points, Loudoun County by 20 points).

And, we predicted:

If Youngkin slices, say, 10 points off the GOP disadvantage in Loudoun County (narrowing the gap from 20 to 10 points) and Fairfax County (from 40 to 30 points) … then Younkin very likely pulls off an upset.

Well, here’s what happened…

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Fairfax County

In Fairfax County, Youngkin did, in fact, cut the gap by 10.1 percentage points … from 40% to 29.9%.

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Loudoun County

Ditto in Loudoun County, where Youngkin narrowed the gap 9.5 percentage points …  from 20% to 10.5%.

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Bottom line: Youngkin crushed McAuliffe in the vast majority of Virginia counties, turned some blue counties red, and made the necessary inroads in Northern Virginia.

click for the NYT interactive map

This entry was posted on November 3, 2021 at 7:15 am and is filed under Virginia politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.