VA Gov Race: Final Polls

Just for the record…

The 538 (Nate Silver) poll-of-polls is weighted by “quality of the poll” and recency has Youngkin up by just under 1%.



The RCP poll-of-polls has Youngkin up by 1.7%


> Neither candidate breaks the magic 50% level

> The 3 most recent polls average Youngkin up by 44%

> Dropping the Fox Poll cuts Youngkin’s advantage to .4%

Reminder: in 2020, liberals praised the Fox News stats crew for calling Arizona early on election night.


The Trafalgar Group — right-leaning, rated “A” by 538 for reliability, most recent poll — has Youngkin up by 2.3%



Averaging the 3 above sources give Younkin about a 1.5% advantage.

If 1.5% is the over/under, I’m betting the over (way over)


Reminder: Fairfax County is Deep Blue, heavily populated with gov’t employees & contractors, and always posts results late … so, Younkin supporters shouldn’t do touchdown dances prematurely.

One Response to “VA Gov Race: Final Polls”

  1. Benjamin Ebenezer Says:

    No touchdown dances here in Fairfax.. but I will attest that my neighborhood was littered with Biden (and even Fauci) signs one year ago. This fall, about 50/50 Younkin signs. That’s a big deal and swing from one year ago. Youngkin will have a tough time taking Fairfax county, but McAuliff will not get the landslide he needs in these purple/blue counties. Outside of Richmond and NoVa, the rest of the state clearly goes to Youngkin.

    Also to note: my Youngkin lawn sign was vandalized twice this season. Funny how that always happens to red signs.

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