The Homa Files

Education gets the headlines, but vax mandates may be the determining X-factor in next week’s gubernatorial election.

Here’s why & how…
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In a prior post, we highlighted the importance of Northern Virginia counties in national and statewide elections … especially this year, with McAuliffe vying with Youngkin for governor.

As James Freeman puts it in the WSJ:

Given the growth of the Beltway swamp, Virginia’s largely government-dependent voters now regularly vote for the leftwardmost major-party candidate in statewide elections.

Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

Usually, they’re a lock for big government and liberal Dem candidates.

But, this year, I’m wondering if these usually reliable government-dependent voters might sit out this year’s gubernatorial election or, god forbid, cast their secret ballots for Youngkin.

Yesterday, we posted that education issues (e.g. curriculum and “social environment”) are front and center … and may work to Youngkin’s advantage.

Today, let’s hit another potential X-factor: vaccine mandates.

In this case, it isn’t just about “vax or not” philosophy … it’s about the impact on and reaction of a couple of hundred thousand likely voters.

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The Federal Employees’ Mandate

On September 9, Biden ordered that all Executive Branch employees and all government contractors that conduct business with the federal government must be vaccinated.

Note: More than 1 million unionized postal employees were exempted from the order and “accommodations” were expected for legitimate health or religions reasons

There was to be no option for weekly testing for those impacted by the Executive Orders.

Get vaccinated. Period.

At the time, Biden indicated that Federal employees would have  75 days to comply. Source

Later clarified, Federal employees were given until Nov. 22 to be fully vaccinated in accordance with Biden’s mandate, Source

That deadline is bearing down on unvaccinated government employees.

How many?

Let’s run some numbers…

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DC area gov’t-related employment

Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population (over 2 million)  with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

How many of them are there?

As of 2017, the federal government directly employed 364,000 people in the D.C. area.

While Uncle Sam is the largest single employer in the region, D.C. is a very white-collar town, with “professional, business and other services” being the largest employer by industry.

All told, 960,500 area jobs fall into that category.  Source

Let’s update to 2021 and round up … and call it 1.5 million government-related employees … living in DC, Maryland and, oh yeah, Northern Virginia.

Let’s assume that they are spread evenly across the 3 locales.

That puts about 500,000 government-related employees living in Northern Virginia … all subjected to Biden’s vaccine mandate!

That’s about 1/4 of NOVA’s population (around 2 million) …  which is probably a low side estimate …but let’s go with it.

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How many vaccinated

You may have noticed that the Feds are reluctant to disclose how many of “their own” have been vaccinated.

Back in May, a congressional committee asked Fauci and  directors from the  CDC  and FDA how many of their employees were vaccinated.

Fauci said “a slim majority”, the FDA guy said “about the same”, and CDC Director Wolensky had no idea.

See: Fauci says slim majority of NIH employees have been vaxed

Surely that number is higher now.

Let’s assume that the number is 60%

That leaves about 200,000 unvaccinated employees living in Northern Virginia.

How many of them are pissed off?

By definition, all 200,000 have demonstrated vaccine hesitancy. Evidenced by the fact that they haven’t voluntarily gotten vaccinated.

What percentage of them are pissed off that they’re being forced to take a shot that they don’t want?

Let’s assume that it’s 50-50. … with half (of the 200,000) getting jabbed to keep their jobs and “moving on” … and  with the other half either pissed that they had no practical option and complied … or standing strong and facing termination.

That leaves about 100,000 government-related employees  living in Northern Virginia with a Biden placed chip on their shoulder.

Maybe they jump ship on the Dems this time.

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So what?

For reference, about 500,000 Northern Virginians voted in the 2017 gubernatorial election.

In stats-speak, that makes 100,000 votes  statistically significant.

Haircut that number in half and you still get the 10 point NOVA shift that alone vould propel Youngkin to victory.

That’s a material X-factor, but, it’s being obscured by the power of the education issue.

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Bottom line: In this tight race, and given the education and vaccine X-factors, the Northern Virginia counties (Loudoun and Fairfax) are likely to determine the election.

My bet: Youngkin wins decisively.

This entry was posted on October 29, 2021 at 8:00 am and is filed under Virginia politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.