Don’t fret, Dems: Youngkin will be a Hogan, not a Trump.

Gov. Hogan is thriving in deep-blue Maryland


I’ve lived for years in Virginia  and Maryland.

So, I’ve had a keen interest in both states’ politics.

My view: There are compelling commonalities between Gov. Hogan (Maryland) and Governor-elect Youngkin (Virginia).


> Both Hogan and Youngkin are Republicans in blue states.

> Both were successful business people … Hogan in real estate, Youngkin is private equity.

> Both were big underdogs in their election campaigns.

> Both adopted a similar political modus operandi.

The WSJ’s Peggy Noonan:puts it this way:

1. Be a respectable, capable-seeming person who focuses on legitimate local issues (schools, taxes.)

2. Don’t say crazy things.

3. Don’t insult Donald Trump but do everything to keep him away.


For the record:

Hogan was elected in 2014 and is winding down his 2nd and last allowed term as governor.

How has he done?

First, the most obvious: he was re-elected in one of the bluest of blue states.


He has been a model of balance and rationality.

He doesn’t do dumb things … and. in a divided government,  he roadblocks dumb things that Dems want to do  … protecting them from themselves (and their innate over-reach tendencies) … and protecting all Marylanders from them.

“Hogan has lived up to his promise to be a good conservative manager and not an ideologue …voters have rewarded him for living up to his promise.” Source

His current approval rating is a robust 68%.

That compares quite favorably to Maryland’s Democratic senators … Chris Van Hollen (44%) … and Ben Cardin (46%).

Some pundits think hat Hogan might be a credible candidate for president in 2024

I agree … what he lacks in charisma, he makes up for in reasonableness, experience (in both biz and government) and performance.


Bottom line:

Youngkin can rejoice that Virginia voters were as rational in 2021 as Maryland voters were in 2014 and 2018.

With Youngkin heading to the governor’s mansion, Virginia Democrats can relax.

He’ll be way more Hogan than Trumps.

That’s a good thing.

One Response to “Don’t fret, Dems: Youngkin will be a Hogan, not a Trump.”

  1. Deepak Gupta Says:

    Prof Homa, with empirical evidence lot of voters even in bluest of blue state of CA will vote for someone like Hogan or Youngkin or Susan Colins. The biggest problem I have with many republican party leaders at present is politics around issues where we shouldn’t argue. We have best vaccines in world and we shouldn’t argue about making it a requirement? Why do we have to argue about making guns safe. When we can have face recognition and finger recognition available on I phone why can’t it be done on Guns, so no one else can use them other than owner? Why do we have to argue about our sources of energy and slow down transition to renewables? why do we have to argue about freedom of choice for planning parenthood? for most of the moderate voters this is a big no no.. i hate dems for there fiscal policy and tax giving, but if i have to choose between the two, I will prefer the latter, because first one impacts the future of my kids

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