Archive for the ‘#Believe Women’ Category

Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…

September 8, 2020

He was for them before he was against them.

You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.

In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.

In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.

One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate

I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.


Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…


Virginia Dems: “Hoisted by their own petards”

February 7, 2019

And, some predictions re: the likely outcome.

First, a translation of the classic phrase…

Contrary to common misunderstanding, the phrase does not mean getting lifted by one’s underwear … wedgie and all.

Rather, a ”petard” was an ancient bomb-like device used to blow open walls or gates.


So, to be “hoisted by one’s own petard” is to be injured by the device that you intended to use to injure others.

Got it?


OK, so how have Virginia Democrats hoisted themselves by their own petards?