Archive for the ‘2020 Election – Odds & Polls’ Category

Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 18: Election Odds & Polls

September 18, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.8   Lead +7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 23  Lead 53 

Sept. 17: Election Polls & Odds

September 17, 2020

Biden +5.0 in odds, +6.8 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.3  Lead +5.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 16: Election Odds & Polls

September 16, 2020

Biden +4.4 in odds, +6.8 in polls
Mideast peace agreements signed
Bloomberg: $100 million for Biden

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 51.6  Trump 47.2  Lead +4.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.8
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 15: Election Odds & Polls

September 15, 2020

Biden +5.8 in odds, +7.1 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.5  Trump 46.7  Lead +5.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 45  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 14: Election Odds & Polls

September 14, 2020

Biden +6.5 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.8  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 44  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 13: Election Odds & Polls

September 13, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.0  Lead +670 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 43  Lead 17

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
Most recent poll: Sept. 8
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 12: Election Odds & Polls

September 12, 2020

Biden +6.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.6  Trump 46.6  Lead +6.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 11: Election Odds & Polls

September 11, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.2  Lead +6.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 10: Election Odds & Polls

September 10, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.7

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48 

Sept. 9: Election Odds & Polls

September 9, 2020

Biden +5 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.0  Lead +5.3  Up 1.3

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.1
Undecided 8.0

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48  Up 5

Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…

September 8, 2020

He was for them before he was against them.
=============

You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.

In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.

In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.

One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate

I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.

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Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…

(more…)

Sept. 8: Election Odds & Polls

September 8, 2020

Biden +8 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.8  Trump 45.7  Lead +8.1

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23
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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 44  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.3
Undecided 8.0

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 71  Trump 28  Lead 43

 

Sept. 4: Election Odds & Polls

September 4, 2020

Biden +2 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 50.7  Trump 48.7  Lead +2.0

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.4  Lead 7.2
Undecided 8.0
**********************************

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver 

Biden 70  Trump 29  Lead 41

Sept. 3 Election Odds & Polls

September 3, 2020

Even odds; Biden +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.8  Trump 49.5  Lead +.1

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.4  Lead 7.2Undecided 8.0
Note: All polls up to date

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 28  Lead 40

Sept. 2: Election Odds & Polls

September 2, 2020

Trump takes lead in RCP Betting Average

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.7  Trump 49.8  Lead +.1

Yesterday:            50.9 48.6 +2.3
Biden July Best :
   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 57  Trump 46  Lead 11

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24 
Pre-conventions:       60 43 +17

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 43.4  Lead 6.2  Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 70  Trump 30  Lead 40

Sept. 1 : Election Odds & Polls

September 1, 2020

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.0  Trump 49.0  Gap +3.0

Yesterday:            50.6 48.7 +1.9
Biden July Best :
   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 57  Trump 46  Gap 11

Yesterday:            53 48 +7
Biden July Best
:   63 39 +24 
Pre-conventions:   60 43 +17

RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6  Trump 43.4  Gap 6.2  Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61  Trump 39  Gap 22

Aug. 31: Election Odds & Polls

August 31, 2020

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 “live” betting books
Biden 50.6  Trump 48.7  Gap +1.9

Yesterday:            52.0 47.8 +4.2
Biden July HIgh :
   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.8  Gap 6.9  Undecided 7.8
Note: No polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61  Trump 39  Gap 21

Aug. 30: Election Odds & Polls

August 30, 2020

RCP – Betting Odds
Biden 52.0  Trump 47.8  Gap +4.2

Biden July HIgh :   60.9 30.6 +24.3 
Pre-conventions:   55.6 43.3 +12.3

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.8  Gap 6.9  Undecided 7.8
Note: No polls since Aug.25

538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61  Trump 39  Gap 21

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