Archive for the ‘2020 Election – Odds & Polls’ Category

Of missionaries and bible salesmen…

January 6, 2021

The Georgia elections brought an old fable-like joke to life
==============

Of course, I’m disappointed with the Georgia outcome … but, it’s not like it wasn’t in the tea leaves.

Back in December, despite polls & odds that were GOP-favorable, I scored the odds at 60-40 that the Dems would sweep both seats.

See: So, how will the Georgia elections turn out?

At at the time, I said that my view was substantially swayed by an old fable-like joke:

A missionary and a bible salesman meet in a bar.

The missionary says “Hey, we’re in the same line of work.”

The bible salesman replies “No we’re not.

You’re trying to convert the masses.

I’m just trying to sell bibles.

In GA, the GOP was seeking converts: “Stop Socialism”; the Dems were selling bibles: “Get out the votes.”

First, gotta hand it to the Stacey Abrams led efforts to mobilize the Dem vote.  They outhustled the GOP from the get-go. Period.

Second, many  pundits argued that the GOP had a compelling “big picture” closing argument (roadblock socialism in the most consequential election ever) … and that the Dems were playing “small ball” (get a free $2,000 check in the mail).

I cynically submit that many voters probably confuse “socialism” with “social media” — and think that the latter is a good thing not a bad thing.

Suffice it to say, that could work against the socialism argument.

And, as my former students will attest, I oft referenced “the power of free” — cautioning them that’s it’s very difficult to compete against “free” goods.

Put those two strategic foundations together —  “hustle” and “free” — and the Georgia elections make complete sense.

Shoulda seen it coning.

NUTS!

===============

P.S. Annie was wrong when she sang that “the sun will come out tomorrow” … it’s totally overcast in Annapolis today.

So, I’m antsy about following her advice to “bet your bottom dollar, that tomorrow there’ll be sun!”

We previously posted that JP Morgan forecasts a 25% market drop if there’s a Blue Wave

So, who to believe Annie or JP Morgan?

Jan. 5: GA Senate Odds & Polls

January 5, 2021

ELECTION DAY – FINAL REPORTING
===============

PredictIt Betting Market  Jan. 5 (6 a.m.)

Betting markets indicating 57-43 chance that at least one of the GOP candidates will win …. down from 73-29 two weeks ago and 63-37 last week … up from 55-45 yesterday

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

image

Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

image

=============

RCP Poll-of-Polls
Latest Polls: DEAD HEAT in BOTH RACES

image

Here are some details (i.e. the “internals”) from the most recent poll…

(more…)

Dec. 30: GA Senate Polls & Odds

December 31, 2020

RCP Poll-of-Polls

Ossoff leading by 1 point.

image

Warnock leading by 2 points
image

=============

PredictIt Betting Market

Betting markets indicating 63-37 chance that at least one of the GOP candidates will win …. down from 73-29 two weeks ago

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

image

Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

image

GA Senate Races – Odds & Polls

December 20, 2020

RCP Poll-of-Polls

Purdue leading by 2 in prior week’s polls

image

Loeffler leading by 3 in prior week’s polls

image

=============

PredictIt Betting Market

Betting markets indicating 73-29 chance that
at least one of the GOP candidates will win.

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

image

Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

image

Uh-oh: Bookies think the election was fixed..

December 2, 2020

And, since these bad boys take things like that very personally, they may provide the strongest impetus for election reforms.
============

Yesterday, we reported a Rasmussen survey finding that almost half of American voters think that that Democrats stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots in several states to ensure that Biden would win.

Among those “believers” are some of America’s biggest bookies.

image

Speaking on behalf of them is a Las Vegas legend named Wayne Allyn Root.

I’m Wayne Allyn Root.

I was a Las Vegas odds maker and sports gaming expert for four decades — long before I became known as a nationally syndicated talk show host.

I understand odds and gambling.

And I can tell you something is very wrong with this presidential election.

It reminds me of a fixed football game.

As an odds maker, when a football game is fixed, even if you can’t prove it, you know.

Gamblers feel that same way about this presidential election.

Let me give you the details of this election- from a gambler’s perspective.

(more…)

Election 2020: The power of love and hate…

November 24, 2020

Inner circle friends and relatives will attest that, for months, I didn’t think Trump would get re-elected.

Nothing to do with policies or performance …

My rationale: Hate is a much stronger emotion than love … and that Trump-haters would overwhelm Trump-lovers (and Trump-tolerators).

That dynamic seems to have played out …

All surveys that I’ve seen indicate that a majority of Biden voters admit that their vote was primarily anti-Trump, not pro-Biden … and, the vast  majority of Trump voters were pro-Trump and indifferent to Biden.

=============

Apparently, I’m not the only person who has been thinking along these lines.

Jason Whitlock is a longtime sports writer and, these days,  cultural / political podcaster known for strong, sometimes controversial points-of-view.

In a recent podcast, Whitlock opined:

The 2020 election shows the power of love versus the power of hate.

click for video and transcript
image

More specifically …

(more…)

Early odds: GA Senate run-offs

November 10, 2020

Betting lines see a split vote … I’m not so sure.
=============

By now, everybody should be aware that the two  Georgia senate run-offs in January will determine control of the Senate … and, whether or not the radical left will be throttled by a divided government.

If the GOP wins at least one of the elections, the Senate stays in GOP control.

If the the Dems sweep the 2 seats, the Senate is tied 50-50 and Dems control the Senate with Kamala presiding.

The early betting line is a split decision … with Warnock (D) a slight favorite over Loeffler … and Perdue (R) favored over Ossoff.

image_thumb[2]
Note: There’s a technical explanation of the odds at the end of post.

=============

My bet: One party or the other will sweep the run-offs.

Here’s why…

(more…)

Election – Polling & Results

November 5, 2020

As of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m)…
===============

Biden is leading the national popular vote by 2.4% (50.4% to 48.0%)

How does that rack up against the final polls?

The final RCP poll-of-polls projected Biden would win the the popular vote by 6.7% …a 3.6 percentage points miss.

Drilling down on the 11 polls that RCP included in their final average …

  • The IBD/TIPP poll (which, along with Trafalgar, was most accurate in 2016) is closest to the pin @ 3%
  • 10 of the 11 overstated Biden’s margin
  • Worst misses were Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Economist/YouGov

image

=============

Also, as of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m), the only battleground state that’s settled is Florida.

  • NC & PA haven’t been called
  • AZ is uncertain (despite FNN’s early call)
  • WI will likely be recounted; MI will be litigated
  • GA and NV emerged as battlegrounds.

Here’s final polling for the 6 states that RCP considered to be battlegrounds going into the election:

image

==============

Specifically, looking at Florida which Trump won by 3.4%…

  • Silver-535 projected Biden to be the odds on winner (69% to 31%)
  • Trafalgar, Insider Advantage and Susquehanna called the Trump win.
  • Trafalgar was closest to the pin, projecting a Trump win by 2.1%
  • The RCP average projected a .9% Biden win …  that’s 4.3 percentage points off the final
  • Biden was projected to win big by Quinnipiac (an 8.4 percentage point miss) and CNBC (an 6.4 percentage point miss)

image

==============

Conceivably, the pollsters will be somewhat vindicated when the rest of the states are finalized … but, but I’m betting the under on that one.

JP Morgan: 25% market drop if there’s a Blue Wave …

November 3, 2020

I don’t provide investment advice, but I do pass along interesting tidbits..

Here’s one hot off the presses: JP Morgan advised clients of likely market reactions to possible election results.

image

In a nutshell:

> Market up 15% if Trump wins and the GOP retains the Senate

> Market down 25% if Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate

> Market up 7% if there’s a split decision: Trump, but a Dem Senate … or, Biden and a GOP Senate.

Betting markets have the odds of a Blue Wave at about 55-45.

In a previous post, we channeled a B of A analysis concluding that a Blue Wave would be good for the market.

Draw your own conclusion.

Election: Blue Wave coming?

November 3, 2020

If so, what will the stock market do?
============

Interesting analysis from B of A brain trust, channeled thru ZeroHedge

First, the betting markets are still indicating slightly better than even odds of a Blue Wave — Biden wins, Dems win Senate & House.

image

Surprising (to me, at least), the B of A analysts conclude that a Blue Wave would be good for the stock market.

The essence of their argument…

In the short-run, Dems would spend like drunken sailors … spiking the economy.

In the long-run, higher taxes would dampen the economy but Dems will likely rein in their tax & spend proclivities to keep from getting blown out in the mid-term elections.

The argument strikes me as a sales pitch to buoy the stock market more than a serious analysis.

On the flipside, they argue that either a Trump win or a GOP Senate will lead to a gridlock-induced stagflation.

I’m not for stagflation, but I’ve always been pretty comfortable with gridlock …

My view: Most of what gets enacted by Congress seems to make my life worse, not better. Viva gridlock.

============

And, of course, there are Blue Sweep contrarians.

JPMorgan strategists see “an orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900).”

Place your bet…

Election – Battlegrounds – FINAL

November 3, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  46.6  +2.3

image

RCP Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in NC, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

image

=============

Trafalgar* Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

image

=============

My election day POV:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags  Tillis & McSally to victory (and Ernst in IA)

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

> TX looms as a wildcard given very high early voting volume.

> Collins scores a come from behind in Maine

=============

* Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Nov.2: Election – Battlegrounds

November 2, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.0  Trump  45.9  +3.1

image_thumb2_thumb_thumb_thumb

=============

Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has a statistical tie in NC, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

image

If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

=============

Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 31: Election – Battlegrounds

October 31, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  45.8  +3.1

image_thumb2_thumb_thumb

=============

Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in AZ, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

image

If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

=============

Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 30: Election – Battlegrounds

October 30, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.0  Trump  45.8  +3.2

image_thumb2_thumb

=============

Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has the race tied in FL, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has WI in a statistical tie, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

image

If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … counting will drag on

=============

Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 30: Election – National Polls

October 30, 2020

The devil is in the details !
=============

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 43.7   Lead 7.4

image

Takeaways: (1) Biden over 50% (2) Gap is narrowing, but still formidable

=============
How formidable?

Let’s drill down on the RCP numbers …

(more…)

Oct. 28: Election – Battlegrounds

October 28, 2020

Biden leading in RCP Poll-of-Polls, but Trump closing gap.
Trump leading in Trafalgar poll (by > 2 pts. in AZ, FL, NC)

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.2  Trump  45.7  +3.5

image_thumb2

=============

Battlegrounds – State-by-State

image

Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 28: Election Polls & Odds

October 28, 2020

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.6  Trump 43.5   Lead 7.1

RCP – Poll of Polls – National – Latest 4 Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 45.5   Lead 4.5

image_thumb2
**********************************

RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.2  Trump 45.7  Lead 3.5

**********************************

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 64.2  Trump 34.5   Lead 29.7

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 63  Trump 41   Lead 22

**********************************

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 88  Trump 12  Lead 76

**********************************

Election: Battleground States

October 26, 2020

Headline: Biden leading in RCP Poll-of-Polls, but Trump closing gap.  Trump leading in Trafalgar poll. 

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.3  Trump  43.5  +3.8

image

=============

Battlegrounds – State-by-State

image

Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

What are the pollsters who got 2016 right saying about the election?

October 23, 2020

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a magic sauce that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Here’s what Trafalgar is currently reporting:

image

Here’s how to read the chart and what it means…

(more…)

Oct. 22: Election Polls & Odds

October 22, 2020

Headlines: Final debate tonight. 
============

Biden +7.5 in national polls
+4.1 in battlegrounds
60/40 in betting odds 

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.6  Trump 43.1   Lead 7.5
Undecided/Other 6.3

image
**********************************
>Trafalgar – Latest National Poll
Biden 47.5  Trump 46.4  Lead 1.1
Undecided/Other 6.1
**********************************
> RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.4  Trump 45.3  Lead 4.1
Undecided/Other 5.4
**********************************

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 63.7   Trump 36.8   Lead 26.9

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 64  Trump 41   Lead 23

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

**********************************

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 13  Lead 74

**********************************

Oct. 21: Election Polls & Odds

October 21, 2020

Headlines: Trump rallying, Biden bunkering … Hunter mess breaking thru MSM-Big Tech censorship … Obama called in to help
============

Biden +8.6 in national polls
+4.0 in battlegrounds
60/40 in betting odds 

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 42.5   Lead 8.6
Undecided 6.4

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Latest Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 43.3  Lead 6.3
Undecided 6.3
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.3  Trump 45.3  Lead 4.0
Undecided 5.4
**********************************

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.9   Trump 38.7   Lead 23.2

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

image_thumb2[1]

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

**********************************

538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

**********************************

Election: Odds & Polls

October 20, 2020

Biden +22.7 in odds, +8.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.6   Trump 38.9   Lead 22.7

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.4   Lead 8.9
Undecided 6.3

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.1  Trump 45.0  Lead 4.1
Undecided 5.9
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 89  Trump 12  Lead 77

Oct. 18: Election Odds & Polls

October 18, 2020

Headline: Trump is back on the campaign trail
… start of a comeback or a futile final gasp?

============

Biden +22.6 in odds, +9.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.6   Trump 39.0   Lead 22.6

Week Ago:     66.0   34.3  +31.7 Oct. 12
Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 39   Lead 26

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.3   Lead 9.0
Undecided 6.4

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.3  Trump 44.9  Lead 4.5
Undecided 5.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

Oct. 13: Election Odds & Polls

October 13, 2020

Headline: Trump is back on the campaign trail
… start of a comeback or a futile final gasp?

============

Biden +31.7 in odds, +10.2 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 66.0   Trump 34.3   Lead 31.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 64  Trump 40   Lead 24

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 64 40 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.8  Trump 41.6   Lead 10.2
Undecided 6.6

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.4  Trump 44.6  Lead 4.8
Undecided 6.0
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 86  Trump 13  Lead 73

Oct. 5: Election Odds & Polls

October 5, 2020

Biden +23.6 in odds, +8.3 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.0   Trump 37.5   Lead 23.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 38   Lead 27 <= new high

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.7  Trump 42.4   Lead 8.3
Undecided 6.9

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 81  Trump 18  Lead 63

Oct. 1: Election Odds & Polls

October 1, 2020

Big post-debate bump for Biden in betting odds
… stock market shrugged off debate.

=============

Biden +18.6 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 58.6   Trump 42   Lead 18.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 62  Trump 42   Lead 20

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.1  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.3
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 21  Lead 57

Telemundo snap-polled their viewers …

September 30, 2020

… with surprising (albeit unscientific) results.

image

Sept. 30: Election Odds & Polls

September 30, 2020

Headline: Big post-debate bump for Biden in overnight betting odds.
=============

Biden +18 in odds, +6.1 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 58   Trump 42   Lead 18 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 42  Lead 18

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.4  Trump 43.3   Lead 6.1
Undecided 7.3

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[1]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.1  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.3
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 21  Lead 57

Sept. 29: Election Odds & Polls

September 29, 2020

Biden +10.6 in odds, +6.4 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 54.9   Trump 44.3   Lead 10.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.4
Undecided 7.4

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.6
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 22  Lead 56

Sept. 28: Election Polls & Odds

September 28, 2020

Biden +9.4 in odds, +7.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 54.3   Trump 44.9   Lead 9.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.8  Trump 42.8   Lead 7.0
Undecided 7.4

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 22  Lead 56

Sept. 27: Election Odds & Polls

September 27, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.1   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2_thumb

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 578  Trump 46  Lead 11

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.9  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.9
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 26: Election Odds & Polls

September 26, 2020

Biden +7.7 in odds, +6.7 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.9   Lead 6.7
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 25: Election Odds & Polls

September 25, 2020

Biden +8.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.6   Lead 8.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 24: Election Odds & Polls

September 24, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.3   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9   Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.9  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 23: Election Odds & Polls

September 23, 2020

Biden +8.5 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.8   Trump 45.3   Lead 8.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2

image_thumb5
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.6
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 22: Election Odds & Polls

September 22, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 68  Lagoa 33
Confirmed by Nov.3: 75 – 20  Predict It
=============
Presidential Summary
Biden +7.5 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.4   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 21: Election Odds & Polls

September 21, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 55  Lagoa 41
=============
Presidential Summary
Biden +7.6 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.5   Trump 45.7   Lead 7.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 20: Election Odds & Polls

September 20, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +6.2 in polls             

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 18: Election Odds & Polls

September 18, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.8   Lead +7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 23  Lead 53 

Sept. 17: Election Polls & Odds

September 17, 2020

Biden +5.0 in odds, +6.8 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.3  Lead +5.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb[2]

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 16: Election Odds & Polls

September 16, 2020

Biden +4.4 in odds, +6.8 in polls
Mideast peace agreements signed
Bloomberg: $100 million for Biden

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 51.6  Trump 47.2  Lead +4.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.8
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 15: Election Odds & Polls

September 15, 2020

Biden +5.8 in odds, +7.1 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.5  Trump 46.7  Lead +5.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 45  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 14: Election Odds & Polls

September 14, 2020

Biden +6.5 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.8  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 44  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 13: Election Odds & Polls

September 13, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.0  Lead +670 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 43  Lead 17

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
Most recent poll: Sept. 8
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 12: Election Odds & Polls

September 12, 2020

Biden +6.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.6  Trump 46.6  Lead +6.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 11: Election Odds & Polls

September 11, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.2  Lead +6.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb5

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 10: Election Odds & Polls

September 10, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.7

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48 

Sept. 9: Election Odds & Polls

September 9, 2020

Biden +5 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.0  Lead +5.3  Up 1.3

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.1
Undecided 8.0

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 74  Trump 26  Lead 48  Up 5

Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…

September 8, 2020

He was for them before he was against them.
=============

You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.

In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.

In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.

One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate

I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.

image

Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…

(more…)