Early odds: GA Senate run-offs

Betting lines see a split vote … I’m not so sure.
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By now, everybody should be aware that the two  Georgia senate run-offs in January will determine control of the Senate … and, whether or not the radical left will be throttled by a divided government.

If the GOP wins at least one of the elections, the Senate stays in GOP control.

If the the Dems sweep the 2 seats, the Senate is tied 50-50 and Dems control the Senate with Kamala presiding.

The early betting line is a split decision … with Warnock (D) a slight favorite over Loeffler … and Perdue (R) favored over Ossoff.

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Note: There’s a technical explanation of the odds at the end of post.

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My bet: One party or the other will sweep the run-offs.

Here’s why…

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In stat-speak: The elections are not mutually independent events … they’re likely to swing the same direction, especially since Perdue and Loeffler are likely to pool their resources to compete against a the out-of-state money that will be flowing in to the Dems’ coffers.

So, which way will it go?

Some pundits say that Perdue and Loeffler will be weakened on their own, without Trump’s draw at the top of the ticket. 

Others say that suburban women who lean conservative but voted against Trump because of the personality issues will return to the flock.

Some pundits argue that Dems are on a roll in GA and that momentum will be in play.

Others say that run-offs lack the enthusiasm of Presidential elections and that “lazy” voters may not even know there’s an election … or, if they know, won’t bother to get up off the couch and cast a vote.

My hunch: Slight advantage to the GOP candidates.

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A big swing factor: election vigilance.

Georgia seems to have run a pretty clean election.

Nonetheless, the Secretary of State has already declared that, during the recount, he expects to find “evidence of some illegally cast votes”.

So, expect hat processes will be further tightened to ensure that the run-offs are clean.

Draw your own conclusion on that one.

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Technical note on betting odds:

A “minus” candidate is expected to win … and, the bigger the minus number, the more favored they are.

A “plus” candidate is expected to lose … and, the larger the plus number, the worse their chances are.

An example from to Athlon Sports:

 

If the Golden State Warriors are listed at –500 to win the NBA championship, a successful $500 wager would only net $100.

On the flip side, if the Los Angeles Lakers are a +500 to win the NBA championship, a successful $100 bet would net $500.

3 Responses to “Early odds: GA Senate run-offs”

  1. Alex Says:

    “the radical left…” Prof Homa, surely you’re better than this. The- Democrats are hardly radical – look beyond the borders of the USA to understand what a “radical left” looks like (USSR, Romania 1971-89, China in 1950-75). Or are you against the concept of a country ensuring all its citizens easy access to affordable healthcare and housing, and a globally-competitive education in a minimally-polluted environment, not just its to elite few percent?

  2. Pat Patune Says:

    “The radical Left ” is completely accurate in this case. If the Liberals control both House & SENATE ? The fall-out for all Americans including & especially Georgia with there’re economy would be beyond extreme. Socialism, bordering on Communism will destroy America. There should/has to be a rational voice to question policies.

  3. Pat Patune Says:

    You won’t let a Democratic comment in it seems ?

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