Archive for the ‘2020 Presidential Campaign’ Category

What if Warren wins?

October 3, 2019

“Resist” may be alive and well … with the tables turned

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Yesterday we ran through a couple of scenarios if Trump did end up getting bounced from office.

The scenarios assumed that Trump would still run in 2020, probably against Warren, maybe with a “moderate” independent jumping in.

My bet: Trump would be be re-elected.

Why?

Largely because Trump supporters would turn out in droves, angry that their votes were overturned by flimsy political machinations … and because:

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“In recent interviews of several big-money Democratic donors and fundraisers in the business community, CNBC has found that this opinion is becoming widely shared as Warren surges against Joe Biden.”

Specifically, big bank executives and hedge fund managers that electing Warren would be tantamount to “shutting down their industry.”

And, oh yeah, there’s that wealth tax that she has been proposing.

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Even while pulling back their support, some Wall Streeters are strategizing for a possible life under President Warren…

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About the 2020 Presidential election…

October 2, 2019

Impeachment imbroglio raises some very interesting scenarios.

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Over the weekend, mused about possible outcomes for the Dems impeachment offensive and the impact on the 2020 election.

My current bet:

  • House will approve articles of impeachment on a straight party line vote (regardless of any evidence or legal logic) … a couple of GOP reps jump ship, allowing Pelosi to position the vote as bi-partisan.
  • A majority of Senators will vote to remove Trump from office but the vote won’t be close to the 2/3s threshold that’s needed, so Trump survives.
  • Biden will be toast, so it’ll be Warren versus Trump … and maybe an Indie will jump in.
  • It’ll be Nixon vs. McGovern 2.0 … as pro-Trumpsters come out of the woodwork in droves … and Dem fat cats reject Warren’s brand of socialism.

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But, there are a couple of other interesting “what if” scenarios…

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Joe was more sleepy than mean…

August 1, 2019

But, this time,  it was Kamala that got Kamala-ed.

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On balance the debate was pretty boring and uninformative.

The gang of many tried to pile on Biden

Joe was wobbly and a bit tired … but fended off the punches … often by putting up his strategic ObamaShield … saying implicitly: “If you attack me, you’re attacking Barack”.

For example, did you notice how Joe hung with “ObamaCare” … but other candidates kept referring to the “Affordable Care Act”?

I expect that’ll be Biden’s go forward strategy: wrap himself with an Obama cloak … and trade on borrowed adulation.

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Basically, I think Biden played to a tie.

The bigger story last night was Tulsi Gabbard taking Kamala Harris to the hoop…

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Which will show up: Sleepy Joe or Mean Joe?

July 31, 2019

Anybody remember his debate against Paul Ryan?

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Most (all?) pundits seem to agree that Kamala Harris got the best of Joe Biden in the first debate … by getting in his face on busing and, in doing so, hit him with a veiled accusation of racism.

Biden’s response was weak …  truncated by his throwing in the towel with “I see that my time is up.”

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On the campaign trail, Biden has been telling supporters (and fat cat donors) that he’s going to up his game in the second debates.:

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His chest-pounding is eliciting a lot of “yeah, right” reactions….

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2020 Dem candidates are starting to trash Obama’s legacy … say, what?

July 30, 2019

A politically expedient strategy to neutralize a potential Biden advantage.

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According to the far-left leaning Daily Beast

The idea that the Obama legacy would be anything other than a massive positive for Biden … has been treated as indisputable within Democratic circles.

But in recent weeks, the Democratic frontrunner has had that legacy used against him, with his competitors pointing the to shortcomings of the last Democratic administration.

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On issues ranging from immigration to health care and foreign policy, the 2020 candidates have been increasingly critical in their public assessments of the Obama administration.

More specifically….

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OMG: I finally agree with Thomas Freidman on something…

July 29, 2019

Prior to Round 2 of the debates, he says: Dems may be handing Trump his re-election.

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Back in 2005, Thomas Friedman’s book “The World is Flat” did much to legitimize and promote globalization.

For better or for worse, the book had undeniable impact … becoming a bible of sorts and playbook for globalization.

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Since “Flat World”, Friedman veered far left and didn’t say much that I agreed with.

That is, until last week…

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In an NY Times opinion piece, Friedman observed:

“A lot of Americans were shocked by some of the things they heard (during the recent democratic presidential debates). I was shocked, too.

What shocked him?

I was shocked that so many candidates in the party whose nominee I was planning to support want to get rid of the private health insurance covering some 250 million Americans and have “Medicare for all” instead. I think we should strengthen Obamacare and eventually add a public option.

I was shocked that so many were ready to decriminalize illegal entry into our country. I think people should have to ring the doorbell before they enter my house or my country.

I was shocked at all those hands raised in support of providing comprehensive health coverage to undocumented immigrants. I think promises we’ve made to our fellow Americans should take priority, like to veterans in need of better health care.

And I was shocked by front-runner Joe Biden’s feeble response to the attack from Kamala Harris — and to the more extreme ideas promoted by those to his left.

Couldn’t have said it better myself, Tommy.

And, what does Friedman conclude?

A racist, divisive, climate-change-denying, woman-abusing jerk who is our president is going to get re-elected

Ouch!

And his remedy for the Dems:

Dear Democrats:

This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs.

Hmmm.

Ironic that the guy who championed the migration of “good” American jobs to low cost labor markets is now championing the creation of good jobs.

As Forrest Gump would say: “What goes around, comes around.”

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Did the Dem candidates jump the shark with this one?

July 2, 2019

They dropped a couple of doozies during last weeks debate…

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I went cool turkey (<= that’s not quite “cold turkey”, but pretty close) away from cable news while at the beach.

On return, I jumped off the wagon by watching parts of the Democratic debates.

I was expecting entertainment value … and I wasn’t disappointed.

Reminded me of the old Happy Days tv series that – among other things – coined the the phrase “jumping the shark”.

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Ratings were slipping, so they had Fonzie (Henry Winkler) jump a shark while water skiing … hoping (but failing) to generate some ratings-boosting buzz.

So now, according to Wikipedia:

Jumping the shark is the moment when something that was once popular that no longer warrants the attention it previously received makes an attempt at publicity, which only serves to highlight its irrelevance..

How does that apply to the Dem debates?

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