Archive for the ‘2020 Presidential Campaign’ Category

Bloomberg takes American Samoa !

March 4, 2020

DJT nailed the main Super Tuesday takeaways in 2 Tweets ….

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My observation: Bloomberg’s 1st debate was like the curtain being pulled back in the Wizard of Oz … a self-inflicted wound that neutralized hundreds of millions of dollars of advertising.

My question: Will a humiliated Bloomberg continue to pour money behind Biden, Congressional Dem candidates and his causes – which obviously didn’t resonate with voters … or, will he take his wallet back home and sulk?

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My observation: Rather than drop out before yesterday’s vote (ala Pete, Amy, and Beto), Warren stayed in.  Doing so, she demonstrated that her “higher purpose” of supporting the “Progressive cause” was a bunch of BS. Her vote totals — while meager — would have shifted a couple  of states towards Bernie … or at least narrowed Biden’s delegate lead.

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Final take: Trump versus Biden will be fun to watch … especially since the Bernie Bros will stay home.

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The importance of Congressional races…

March 3, 2020

During the last Dem debate, Mike Bloomberg claimed that his election generosity “bought” the Dems a majority in Congress.

Obviously, the GOP would like like to regain a Congressional majority to stop the constant stream of heretofore fruitless investigations that Pelosi & Schiff have instigated.

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But, for the GOP. the stakes may be even higher than that.

Keeping the White House may depend on winning the Congress….

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Bloomberg’s possible path to the Oval Office…

March 2, 2020

Short answer: via  a 3rd party run.
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Many pundits are speculating that Bloomberg’s only chance of winning the White House is to buy-off a sufficient number of “super delegates” at a brokered Democratic Convention.

I disagree.

In fact, if that were to happen,  I think that Trump would prevail in a head-to-head match-up.

My take: Sanders’ supporters will be irate if Bernie enters the convention with a statistically significant plurality of delegates but is denied the nomination because of the Dems’ backroom “Stop Bernie” dealing.

Bernie’s Bros won’t shift their passionate support to Mini Mike … they’ll either stay home or cast Trump votes in protest.

So, the way I see it,  Bloomberg has only one long-shot path to the White House: run as an independent.

It’s a wild scenario, but here’s my logic…

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First, I expect that Bernie will be the Dems’ nominee for president.

A reluctant Dem establishment will be left with no choice.

My bet: Head-to-head, Trump the capitalist would beat Sanders the socialist.

But …

What if Bloomberg – after failing to secure the Dem nomination – declares as a 3rd party candidate?

No chance that Bloomberg would beat Trump head-to-head …. and no chance that he’d win 270 electoral votes in a 3-way contest.

But …

What if Bloomberg were to win a state or two (think: New York, New Jersey) … just enough to stop Trump (and Sanders) short of 270?

Well, then the election gets tossed to the Congress.

In a nutshell: Congress gets to elect the President from among the top 3 candidates (based on their earned electoral votes).

Each state’s delegation gets one vote.

Assume that the Dems had the majority of “members” in a majority of state delegations.

Note: While the Dems currently hold a majority in Congress, the GOP currently has a majority of state delegations.

If all the Dem’s state delegations cast “establishment” votes instead of “socialism” votes … i.e. they vote Bloomberg over Sanders … then Bloomberg is elected … even though he won a minimal number of electoral votes in the general election.

Of course, all hell would break loose … and American democracy would never be the same … but Bloomberg would be the President-elect.

A remote happening … but possible.

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Bloomberg, Mayor Michael | 2 Comments »

Running mates?

February 28, 2020

During this week’s Dem debate, my mind wandered to wondering about possible running mate choices.

I’m already on record projecting that Klobuchar would be a natural running mate for Biden if he rises from the ashes and snags the nomination.

Apparently, Amy is on that mind track, too.

Anybody notice how many times she said that she’s the one candidate that has sway in the swing Midwest states?

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What if Sanders gets the nod? Who will he select?

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Bloomberg: “My $100 million won the House in 2018”

February 26, 2020

Paraphrasing, that was the line that caught my attention  during last night’s Democratic melee.

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Mayor Pete tried to sting Bernie with  “The 40 new congressional reps who were elected, weren’t running on your platform, Bernie … and now, they’re already running away from it.”

Mayor Mike stepped into school him on the point:

“No, it was the $100 million that I personally threw into those campaigns.”

Did he really say that?

The guy who is who is literally trying to buy the 2020 presidential election, crowed that he successfully bought the 2018 Congressional races.

Yipes.

The guy who is supposed to be the Democratic champion for capitalism offered up one of the strongest talking points against it.

When jabrones like Bloomberg grow their wealth to a point that they can buy control of the government, and try to do it, that’s a problem.

Chilling, isn’t it?

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Bloomberg, Mayor Michael | 2 Comments »

The questions that I’d ask Bloomberg tonight …

February 25, 2020

I expect Bloomberg to be better prepared tonight, but expect that he’ll continue to take incoming fire from the other candidates.

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Just to make him squirm, here’s the first question that I’d like to see somebody ask him:

Mr. Blumberg, when you were mayor of NYC, you supported the policing policy called stop & frisk.

The murder rate in NYC dropped significantly when stop & frisk was enforced.

But, the  policy disproportionately impacted young minority males.

You recently apologized for supporting stop & frisk.

Does that mean that, if you had it to do over again, you would have halted stop & frisk and accepted a continuing higher murder rate?

Easy answer: “I would have halted stop & frisk, and doubled down on other murder prevention initiatives such as ….”

My bet: Bloomberg will freeze and blow it if the question is asked.

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And, here’s the pivotal question that I’d ask…

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India to Trump: “Macho, macho man”

February 25, 2020

Trump is despised by internationally, right?

Well, don’t tell the folks in India.

Over 100,000 packed a stadium rally for him.

Instead of the Star Spangled Banner or Hail to the Chief, the Indians ushered him into the rally to Village People’s classic Macho, Macho Man.

This clip – which, for some reason, isn’t being looped on many stations – is hysterical … well worth viewing.

When you click the link, be sure to ‘unmute’ the video (by moving your cursor over the video and ‘unchecking’ the x next to the speaker icon)  … and watch the Trump-hatted crowd dancing.

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India plays “Macho Man” by Village People as Trump enters Sardar Patel Stadium

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By end-of-day, I expect MSNBC to charge the Indians with election meddling …

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, India, Trump, President Donald J. | 1 Comment »

Trump: Thank you, Senator Warren!

February 21, 2020

She provided the Trump 2020 Campaign with the ad it needed
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If Bloomberg’s leveraged buyout of the Democratic succeeds and he gets the Dem presidential nomination, I’m betting that we’ll see this clip over and over and over.

click to view or read transcript below
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Warren blasts Bloomberg:

I’d like to talk about who we’re running against—a billionaire who calls women fat broads and horse-faced lesbians, and no, I’m not talking about Donald Trump, I’m talking about Mayor Bloomberg.

Democrats are not going to win if we have a nominee who has a history of harassing women, and of supporting racist policies like red-lining and stop-and-frisk.

If Bloomberg is the Dem nominee, suburban women may be caught between a rock and a hard place come November.

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Trump’s tailwind in 3 charts.

February 17, 2020

I get bewildered when I hear the Dem presidential candidates whine about how bad things are going and how bad off Americans are.

I guess that they need to keep harping on the theme — and stimulating some despair —  because Americans seem to think they’re doing ok.

Who says?

According to Gallup, “Satisfaction With Personal Life” is at an all time high 90% … up from 78% during the Obama years.

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Hmm.

And, things get even better….
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So, what happened to Biden and Warren?

February 12, 2020

Both Warren & Biden got smoked in NH last nite … they finished out of the money (4th & 5th place) … each got less than 10% of the vote … and neither scored any delegates.

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Pundits are coming up with many convoluted explanations, but the answers are really quite simple.

For Biden, the answer can be summed up in one word:impeachment.

Not his, Trump’s.

As we previously posted, Looks like Dems aimed at Trump but hit Biden…

I get it that Pelosi got pressured by AOC and her extreme liberal squad and by the most avid Trump-haters in her caucus.

Didn’t she realize that Biden would get caught in the crossfire? Or, was she just ok with sacrificing his candidacy?

Either way, Biden was toast from the get-go.

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In my opinion, Warren’s rapid slide can be traced to a single incident that went viral…

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Who wants to be president?

February 11, 2020

Or, more to the point: why would anybody want the job?
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The Iowa debacle didn’t surprise me. Maybe its an omen.

The morning after the last pre-Iowa Democratic debate, James Freeman of the WSJ asked: Doesn’t anybody want to be President?

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Freeman opined:

Six competitors took the stage at the Democratic presidential debate, but  nobody wanted to compete.

Given a final opportunity to challenge rivals before Democrats begin selecting the party’s nominee, the candidates looked just as bored as the television viewers who were treated to stale recitations of campaign talking points.

The reasonable conclusion is that both of America’s major political parties will be relying on Donald Trump to drive turnout in November.

I think Freeman may be selling Bernie short — that guy wants the job — but he’s on the right track.

In fact, I’d reframe the question and broaden it beyond the Dems roster of candidates.

For the the life of me, I can’t understand why anybody — including Donald J. Trump — would want the job rolling into 2021.

Here’s my thinking…

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign | 1 Comment »

Cutting to the chase: the central impeachment questions.…

January 27, 2020

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Cutting to the chase, the Congressional Democrats impeached President Trump on 2 charges:

(1) Abuse of Power – for pressuring the Ukrainian President to investigate Joe & Hunter Biden, and

(2)  Obstruction of Congress – for withholding documents and blocking his aides’ testimony.

In a prior post,  we replayed Prof. Jonathan Turley dismantling the obstruction charge against President Trump.

The essence of his argument:

  • The President has every right to withhold testimony and documents citing “executive privilege”.
  • If Congress disputes the right to executive privilege, it can appeal to the courts.
  • If the courts deny the claim of executive privilege and the President still withholds, then — and only then — is he guilty of obstruction.

Congress did not appeal to the courts and it has no standalone  legal power to deny executive privilege and charge obstruction.

Case closed.

So, what about the other impeachment charge: abuse of power?

This is will emerge as the central issue in the trial, especially given the hornet’s nest poked by the Bolton book draft leaks.

So, let’s dig a little deeper …

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What if Warren wins?

October 3, 2019

“Resist” may be alive and well … with the tables turned

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Yesterday we ran through a couple of scenarios if Trump did end up getting bounced from office.

The scenarios assumed that Trump would still run in 2020, probably against Warren, maybe with a “moderate” independent jumping in.

My bet: Trump would be be re-elected.

Why?

Largely because Trump supporters would turn out in droves, angry that their votes were overturned by flimsy political machinations … and because:

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“In recent interviews of several big-money Democratic donors and fundraisers in the business community, CNBC has found that this opinion is becoming widely shared as Warren surges against Joe Biden.”

Specifically, big bank executives and hedge fund managers that electing Warren would be tantamount to “shutting down their industry.”

And, oh yeah, there’s that wealth tax that she has been proposing.

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Even while pulling back their support, some Wall Streeters are strategizing for a possible life under President Warren…

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Trump, President Donald J., Warren, Elizabeth | Leave a Comment »

About the 2020 Presidential election…

October 2, 2019

Impeachment imbroglio raises some very interesting scenarios.

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Over the weekend, mused about possible outcomes for the Dems impeachment offensive and the impact on the 2020 election.

My current bet:

  • House will approve articles of impeachment on a straight party line vote (regardless of any evidence or legal logic) … a couple of GOP reps jump ship, allowing Pelosi to position the vote as bi-partisan.
  • A majority of Senators will vote to remove Trump from office but the vote won’t be close to the 2/3s threshold that’s needed, so Trump survives.
  • Biden will be toast, so it’ll be Warren versus Trump … and maybe an Indie will jump in.
  • It’ll be Nixon vs. McGovern 2.0 … as pro-Trumpsters come out of the woodwork in droves … and Dem fat cats reject Warren’s brand of socialism.

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But, there are a couple of other interesting “what if” scenarios…

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Impeachment, Trump, President Donald J. | Leave a Comment »

Joe was more sleepy than mean…

August 1, 2019

But, this time,  it was Kamala that got Kamala-ed.

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On balance the debate was pretty boring and uninformative.

The gang of many tried to pile on Biden

Joe was wobbly and a bit tired … but fended off the punches … often by putting up his strategic ObamaShield … saying implicitly: “If you attack me, you’re attacking Barack”.

For example, did you notice how Joe hung with “ObamaCare” … but other candidates kept referring to the “Affordable Care Act”?

I expect that’ll be Biden’s go forward strategy: wrap himself with an Obama cloak … and trade on borrowed adulation.

click to view
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Basically, I think Biden played to a tie.

The bigger story last night was Tulsi Gabbard taking Kamala Harris to the hoop…

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Which will show up: Sleepy Joe or Mean Joe?

July 31, 2019

Anybody remember his debate against Paul Ryan?

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Most (all?) pundits seem to agree that Kamala Harris got the best of Joe Biden in the first debate … by getting in his face on busing and, in doing so, hit him with a veiled accusation of racism.

Biden’s response was weak …  truncated by his throwing in the towel with “I see that my time is up.”

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On the campaign trail, Biden has been telling supporters (and fat cat donors) that he’s going to up his game in the second debates.:

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His chest-pounding is eliciting a lot of “yeah, right” reactions….

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2020 Dem candidates are starting to trash Obama’s legacy … say, what?

July 30, 2019

A politically expedient strategy to neutralize a potential Biden advantage.

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According to the far-left leaning Daily Beast …

The idea that the Obama legacy would be anything other than a massive positive for Biden … has been treated as indisputable within Democratic circles.

But in recent weeks, the Democratic frontrunner has had that legacy used against him, with his competitors pointing the to shortcomings of the last Democratic administration.

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On issues ranging from immigration to health care and foreign policy, the 2020 candidates have been increasingly critical in their public assessments of the Obama administration.

More specifically….

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OMG: I finally agree with Thomas Freidman on something…

July 29, 2019

Prior to Round 2 of the debates, he says: Dems may be handing Trump his re-election.

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Back in 2005, Thomas Friedman’s book “The World is Flat” did much to legitimize and promote globalization.

For better or for worse, the book had undeniable impact … becoming a bible of sorts and playbook for globalization.

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Since “Flat World”, Friedman veered far left and didn’t say much that I agreed with.

That is, until last week…

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In an NY Times opinion piece, Friedman observed:

“A lot of Americans were shocked by some of the things they heard (during the recent democratic presidential debates). I was shocked, too.”

What shocked him?

I was shocked that so many candidates in the party whose nominee I was planning to support want to get rid of the private health insurance covering some 250 million Americans and have “Medicare for all” instead. I think we should strengthen Obamacare and eventually add a public option.

I was shocked that so many were ready to decriminalize illegal entry into our country. I think people should have to ring the doorbell before they enter my house or my country.

I was shocked at all those hands raised in support of providing comprehensive health coverage to undocumented immigrants. I think promises we’ve made to our fellow Americans should take priority, like to veterans in need of better health care.

And I was shocked by front-runner Joe Biden’s feeble response to the attack from Kamala Harris — and to the more extreme ideas promoted by those to his left.

Couldn’t have said it better myself, Tommy.

And, what does Friedman conclude?

A racist, divisive, climate-change-denying, woman-abusing jerk who is our president is going to get re-elected

Ouch!

And his remedy for the Dems:

Dear Democrats:

This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs.

Hmmm.

Ironic that the guy who championed the migration of “good” American jobs to low cost labor markets is now championing the creation of good jobs.

As Forrest Gump would say: “What goes around, comes around.”

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Friedman, Tom | 1 Comment »

Did the Dem candidates jump the shark with this one?

July 2, 2019

They dropped a couple of doozies during last weeks debate…

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I went cool turkey (<= that’s not quite “cold turkey”, but pretty close) away from cable news while at the beach.

On return, I jumped off the wagon by watching parts of the Democratic debates.

I was expecting entertainment value … and I wasn’t disappointed.

Reminded me of the old Happy Days tv series that – among other things – coined the the phrase “jumping the shark”.

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Ratings were slipping, so they had Fonzie (Henry Winkler) jump a shark while water skiing … hoping (but failing) to generate some ratings-boosting buzz.

So now, according to Wikipedia:

Jumping the shark is the moment when something that was once popular that no longer warrants the attention it previously received makes an attempt at publicity, which only serves to highlight its irrelevance..

How does that apply to the Dem debates?

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Health Care / Medical Insurance, Healthcare Economics, Immigration, Jumping the Shark | Leave a Comment »