The Homa Files

Specifically, high-volume signature verification is a farce.
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Yesterday, we walked thru my linked experiences: getting a Maryland driver’s license, registering to vote, requesting an absentee ballot and casting an absentee ballot.

The key takeaways:

• As part of the D/L process, the state captured an electronic facsimile of my signature (that I etch-a-sketched on an electronic keypad)
• Also as part of the D/L process, I registered to vote … and, my electronic facsimile signature was posted to my voting registration.
• Later, I requested an absentee ballot online.  When I did, I provided basic ID info but no signature — just a checked box indicating that I agreed to an electronic non-signing
• When I sent in my absentee ballot, I manually signed the over-wrapping secrecy envelope — not the ballot.

Now, the million dollar question: Given the above takeaways, how did my ballot get verified?

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Specifically, high-volume signature verification is a pipe dream.
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Let’s start with some basics, illustrated with my personal experience…

Last year, when I retired, I officially moved from Virginia to scenic Annapolis, Maryland.

Dutifully, I marched into the DMV to get a Maryland driver’s license.

As part of the process, I had to “write” my signature on an electronic pad to create a  digital recording of it.

Note: For physical and behavioral reasons — how we write and how careful we are –these electronic signatures are known to be problematic … this is, they are oftern poor representations of a person’s “real” manual signature.  Anybody who has used one of these devices knows what I’m talking about.

And, as part of the Maryland licensing process, I was offered the chance to simultaneously register to vote.  I did.

Note: My voter registration’s “signature” was, of course, the same electronic facsimile that got posted to my driver’s license. This is important later in my story

So far, so good.

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Now, let’s got through my recent encounter with the absentee voting process…

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… and, mail-in ballot verification is a sham.
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In a prior post, we argued that assertions that there is “no widespread fraud” is meaningless since relatively small scale fraud that is localized can tilt elections … and that “no systematic fraud has been found” is misleading if the system itself provides ample opportunity to cheat and nobody is trying to find the cheating.

As the old adage says: The absence of evidence of wrong-doing is not evidence that there is no wrong-doing.

The latter — ample opportunity to cheat — is a manifestation of voter registration lists that are a mess and ballot verification procedures that are a sham.

Today, let’s look at voter registration lists, starting with a comprehensive study done by the Pew Trust.

click to view report

Based on their analysis, Pew concluded:

About 24 million — 1 in every 8 — voter registration records are invalid or “significantly inaccurate”.

Of the 24 million:

• More than 1.8 million dead individuals are listed as active registrants.
  n Approximately 2.8 million people are registered to vote in more than one state
• Wrong addresses account for most of the 24 million “significant  inaccuracies”

These issues are non-fatal nuisances when voting is done in-person with a required photo ID: dead people don’t show up in person, its tough for multi-state registrants to show up in both (or all) states (save for crossing the Nevada-California border), and wrong addresses get scrutinized closely when segregated as provisional ballots.

But, when a state opens the mail-in floodgates, these registrations inaccuracies can tilt an election.

Let’s get specific…

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When states carpet-bomb ballots to everybody on their voter registration lists, 1 in 8 (12.5%) ballots get mailed to somebody who is dead, registered in another state or has moved to another address.

The “dead ballots” can be cast by somebody else  … maybe somewhat innocently  (e.g. Grandma would want this since she always voted Democratic) … or maliciously (e.g. bad actors “harvesting” the “dead ballots”).

Either way, it’s voting fraud!

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Similarly, multi-state registrants may be intentionally playing the system to vote more than once (a mortal sin) … or, may be thinking that it’s OK to do since the state “legitimized” their vote by sending them a ballot.

Note: Last year,  I moved and changed my voter registration.  This year, I was deluged with letters and phone calls urging me to vote in my old state.

Either way, it’s voting fraud!

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What about the millions of wrong addresses on file?

Think about it: Millions of ballots go to the wrong address!

Note: Pew says that 1 in 8 people move every 2 years — between election cycles … and 1 in 4 young people move in that time.

What’s the problem?

First, people who legitimately should get a ballot don’t because their address hasn’t been updated.

Note: we have first-hand experience of this happening to our immediate family members.

Second, persons who currently reside at the address on file have the opportunity to vote the ballot … no muss, no fuss.

But, don’t these cases get caught and rectified?

Dream on.

In concept, the ballot verification process should snag these errant votes but — as we’ll detail  in another post — the verification processes  (think: signature verification) is porous to sham status.

And, consider what happens when a person who hasn’t received a ballot shows up to vote in person.

If a bad actor has sent in their mail-in ballot, the legit person is flagged for voting twice and given a provisional ballot to be researched and either tossed or validated (with the mail-in ballot voided).

I’m betting the under on that process ever happening!

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Cumulatively, these loopholes provide ample opportunity for bad actors to cheat … maybe enough to tilt an election …– especially when ballots are carpet-bombed to everybody on voter registration lists.

Absentee ballot processes used by many states mitigate the problems somewhat but don’t eliminate them.

They just shift the focus to ballot verification processes … which we’ll cover in another post.

Now, it’s “no widespread voter fraud” or “no systematic fraud”
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Like roughly 73 million other Americans, I thought it was surreal this summer when the MSM and left-leaning pundits, coined the phrase “mostly peaceful protests” … and then oft-repeated it to establish the faux-truth among a gullible constituency.

Literally billions of dollars of destruction, businesses burned to the ground, stores looted and people intimidated when walking the streets or dining at restaurants.

IMHO, that’s hardly “peaceful”.

Practically speaking, “peaceful” is a binary variable, not a matter of degree. Especially for those innocent people who lost their businesses, had their neighborhoods burned to a crisp or got roughed up.

My view: “mostly peaceful” is a frightening measure of civil conduct.

Right up there with “the end justifies the means”.

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Now, we’ve got a new low bar for civil behavior: “no widespread voter fraud” … or its close cousin: “no systematic voting fraud”.

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Two classic pieces of advice on the question.
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Following last weeks’ post “Some people just shouldn’t vote! “ … a couple of loyal readers reminded me of some classic points-of-view on the subject.

First, is former President Obama’s “Cousin Pookie” advice:

You’ve got to grab your friends. You’ve got to grab your co-workers.

You know, don’t just get the folks you know are going to vote.

You’ve got to find Cousin Pookie, he’s sitting on the couch right now watching football.

He hasn’t voted in the last 5 elections.

You’ve got to grab him and tell him to go vote.

I didn’t say it … Obama did:

click to view video clip

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Back in 1984, Andy Rooney — a culture observer & humorist — presented a  contrary point-of-view on 60 Minutes.

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This is very disappointing news…
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Last week, Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger broke news that he was ordering a hand recount and audit of the state’s election results.

That sounded like very good news … setting a reasonable expectation that illegitimate mail-in ballots would be tossed … and, that Dominion computer counts would be cross-checked.

But, hopes of a rigorous vote-check have all but vanished.

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Did he gift the GOP a “defund the police” sound bite?
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By now, everybody should be aware that the two  Georgia run-offs in January will determine control of the Senate … and, whether or not the radical left will be throttled by a divided government.

Last weekend, a camera-prone, emotionally-charged Schumer did an imitation of the Howard Dean Scream … letting rip a campaign battle cry:

“Now we take Georgia … then change America … and change the world!”

IMHO, Schumer’s exclamation was a big favor to the GOP.

Here’s why…

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First, I think pundits were misreading a common poll result that was oft-headlined during the presidential campaign:

“A majority of Americans think the country is moving in the wrong direction”.

The usual interpretation: Everything that Trump is doing is bad and wrong … and needs to be changed.

True, many people probably felt that way.

My guess: About half of the Dems, some of the Independents and a handful of Republicans.

My bet: Many  people thought rioting, looting, canceling, etc., were the wrong direction, not Trump’s policies

That’s why they were comfortable voting for Trump.

Schumer may be falling for the pollsters’ trap … thinking that a majority of Americans (or a majority of his party) wants to radically change America.

I doubt that’s the case.

So, his war chant may be off-target … and for sure, provides the GOP candidates in Georgia a sound bite that will be showcased in commercials … probably, pretty effectively.

Thanks, Chuckie.

A bonafide red wave!
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The Congressional elections are, perhaps, a better indication of American political sentiment than the Presidential election — which was certainty influenced by Trump-hating.

Going into the election, pundits and politicos were forecasting a Dem pick-up of 10 to 15 seats.

Not to be.

Already in the books is a 5-seat GOP pick-up…

And, there 10 congressional contests that haven’t been called.

Based on current counts, the GOP stands to pick up an additional 8 seats … for a total pick-up of 13 seats.

Now, that’s a red wave !

P.S. Another fine job by the prognosticators.

Disclaimer: I’m neither a lawyer nor a constitutional scholar… just a curious guy trying to understand an interesting issue.

OK, there’s a constitutional question in Pennsylvania, whistleblower affidavits of episodic malfeasance in multiple states and a widespread (albeit partisan) sense that fraudulent ballots were submitted without adequate verification and counted.

Trump’s lawyers are petitioning the SCOTUS to review the charges and order remedies.

So, the question is: Will the SCOTUS intervene in the election?

Let’s drill down on that question…

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The Philly mayor said yesterday that Trump should “just put on his big boy pants” and concede.

Hmm.

That reminded me of the advice that Clinton offered to Biden in August.

According to left-leaning Politico:

Hillary Clinton is predicting Donald Trump’s reelection effort will be a messy affair, and the former Democratic candidate has some advice for Joe Biden: If the race is close, don’t concede.

She emphasized that even a small margin of votes can have major consequences, harking back to her experience winning the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes and still losing in the Electoral College.

Democrats, she said, should be ready to fight if the results come back too close to call.

“Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is,”

Biden said in July that Trump would try to “indirectly steal” the election by attacking mail-in ballots.

The GOP response: Democrats “believe they can sue their way to victory, and there’s no telling what other shenanigans Democrats will pull once polling locations are open,”

“Don’t concede a close election under any circumstances.”

I wonder if she’d offer the same advice to Trump?

An interesting development last night.

Justice Alito — who is the SCOTUS point man for the Pennsylvania region — issued the following order:

All county boards of election are hereby ordered, pending further order of the Court, to comply with the following guidance provided by the Secretary of the Commonwealth on October 28 and November 1, namely,

(1) that all ballots received by mail after 8:00 p.m. on November 3 be segregated and kept “in a secure, safe and sealed container separate from other voted ballots,” and

(2) that all such ballots, if counted, be counted separately.

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So what?

IMHO, the GOP case is pretty strong.  The Constitution says that state legislatures set the rules for elections, not other government officials or state courts.

The PA legislature’s law says that ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on election day.

It can be debated whether that’s a good rule … but, it’s the law!

The Dem election officials changed the rules to accept mail-in ballots for the whole week.  Their decision was upheld by the PA Supreme Court.

So, the the question is a Constitutional one, not vague charges of vote fraud.

Big deal or little deal?

That’s unclear.

(1) In yesterday’s press conference, the state’s chief election official was unable (or unwilling?) to report how many ballots fell into the late-arriving category.

So, could be a lot … or, could be few.  That’s a big unknown.

(2) Though PA election officials previously issued rules comparable to Justice Alito’s, there are reports that some (many?) PA counties didn’t follow the rules — either out of ignorance or defiance.

This could be a very big deal !

First, it’s conceivable (but unlikely, IMHO) that here are enough late arriving votes to swing the election results.

Second, what if the SCOTUS rules that the late-arriving votes are, in fact, unconstitutional … and PA “finds” that counties haven’t been segregating the votes and that there’s no way to separate them after-the-fact.

What does the SCOTUS do to remediate that situation?

I see only 2 options: (1) let all the votes count and tell PA to not to do it again, or (2) disallow all mail in votes because the pool of votes was irreparably contaminated.

This could get very interesting…

Half of the country will consider the winner to be illegitimate
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What a mess…

If Biden wins, Trump supporters will point to fraudulent mail voting and counting shenanigans happening behind closed doors in Democratic “machine” cities & states … Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee and Nevada.

If Trump prevails, it will undoubtedly be because of favorable court rulings on fraudulent mail votes, obstructed poll watchers and violation of state election laws (in Pennsylvania).  

Dems will claim unjustified intervention by the courts … and judicial bias.

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Odds are that Biden will ultimately prevail.

If so, the good news is that it’ll be less likely that cities will get burned and looted.

The bad news (for Biden) is that half of the country will think that it got cheated …

… I got my Eagles jacket on.
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That’s what Screamin’ Joe said to burnish his “native son” cred.

Sorry, Joe … that’s a Univ. of Delaware Blue Hen on your jacket, not a Philadelphia Eagle.

Oops.

What a totally peaceful protest looks like.
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We got a surprise on Sunday afternoon.

We were on the inner-loop of the Washington Beltway yesterday. heading northeast to Annapolis.

On the other side of the road, we noticed a couple of cars & trucks with Trump flags and banners.

We couldn’t help but notice that it wasn’t really just a couple of cars & trucks.

The caravan was miles long.

For those familiar with the DC Beltway, the caravan ran almost the entire distance from I-270 to Route 50 (the expressway to Annapolis).

The Caravan was unlike anything I’d ever witnessed — save for the Macy’s T-Day Parade.

Yes, pick-ups made up the majority of the caravan … but, there were plenty of high-end SUVs, too.

And, for the record, the caravan appeared to be moving at the speed limit and traffic on that side was flowing nicely by Beltway standards.

We didn’t see any firearms being brandished … and nobody was chucking projectiles at innocent people, places or things.

Just driving and waving out of their windows and sky-roofs.

For Trump supporters, it was reassuring to see “shy” Trump supporters come out-of-the closet in the solid-blue DC-Maryland area.

For Biden supporters, there must be solace that none of the caravan’s votes will matter since DC, MD and VA are a lock for Biden.

BTW: On our side of the road, we only spotted one Biden-Harris bumper sticker.

It was on a car parked on the side of the road with its hood up.

An omen?

This one may even sway some suburban women.
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Most pundits agree that Biden’s Freudian slip that his goal-certain is to kill the oil & gas industry … the only open-switch is the time frame.

My view: there was at least one other potential vote-swaying debate moment.

About 9 minutes into the debate, on the subject of COVID. Trump said:

I say we’re learning to live with it. We have no choice.

We can’t lock ourselves up in a basement like Joe does. He has the ability to lock himself up. I don’t know, he’s obviously made a lot of money, someplace, but he has this thing about living in a basement.

People can’t do that.

I said, you know, this is dangerous. And you can catch it.

I caught it. I learned a lot. I learned a lot, great doctors, great hospitals. And now, I recovered … 99.9% of young people recover. 99% of people recover.

We have to recover.

We can’t close up our nation, we have to open our schools, and we can’t close up our nation, or you’re not going to have a nation.

A couple of minutes later, Trump followed up:

We can’t keep this country closed.

It is a massive country with a massive economy.

People are losing their jobs, they’re committing suicide. There’s depression, alcohol, drugs at a level that nobody’s ever seen before. There’s abuse, tremendous abuse.

We have to open our country.

You know I’ve said it often — the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself, and that’s what’s happening.

He (Biden) wants to close down.

He’ll close down the country if one person in our, in our massive bureaucracy says we should close it down.

Here’s my take…

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Most telling image from the Trump-Biden debate.
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Remember when Bush-the-Father got skewed for looking at his watch during one of his debates?

click to view video clip

So, who do you want going up against Putin, Xi and the world’s other crazy leaders?

Re: fracking … even CNN says Biden was lying.

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During the debate, Trump pressed Biden on fracking.

Biden claimed: “I never said that I was opposed to fracking.”

Trump countered: “Joe, you said it on tape.”

Biden: Show the tape – put it on your web site.on his website.

Here it is, Joe …

click to view 1-minute video collage

… but it may swing the election.
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Here’s my take:

1. Biden made an unforced campaign error by  trading on his son Beau’s memory when he tried to tag Trump with being insulting to the military.  That move opened the door to dragging son Hunter into the conversation. Family members became fair game.

2. For sure, Biden is guilty of allowing his VP influence to be compromised (by Hunter) … and probably profited from the deals personally.

3. Most (all?) voters assume that most (all?) elected officials trade on their positions and influence for personal gain.

4. So, few (no?) Biden voters will jump off his campaign train just because he’s revealed to be a typical political sleaze … especially since most voters think the transgressions — even those with China — are no harm, no foul … and, because Biden was “just trying to help his wayward son.”.

But…

Huntergate has got to be weighing heavily on Joe’s already diminishing state of mind.

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President Trump is trailing badly in all of the polls, right?

On one measure that makes sense since.

According to a Gallup survey, registered voters say that Biden has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have — 49% to 44%. (Upper bars)   

But, that gap is smaller than might be expected and neither candidate gets a majority of voters thinking they have the right stuff.

And, Trump has the upper hand on “agree with him on the issues” — 49% to 46%. (Lower bars above)

Hmmm.

So, how do people feel on the crux question:

Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

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Trump’s ace in the hole … or, just wishful thinking?
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Holy Smokes.

A couple of weeks ago,, hard-left Politico ran an article sub-titled “What Obama really thinks about  Biden”.

I expected it to be typical Biden puff piece.

Suffice it to say that I was surprised.

In Obama-speak, the former President “took Joe to the hoop”…

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Yesterday, I was browsing the web to debrief on the debate … and learn more about ANTIFA.

An article suggested that readers go to the web site antifa.com

So, I did:

The results were eye-popping…

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That’s my summary of last night’s bleep-show.
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The debate was a discouraging spectacle.

Geez, a New York bully against a malleable has-been politico.

Trump interrupted … Biden name-called and brayed like a jackass.

Out of 330 million, can’t we do better than this?

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Here’s my morning after mind-dump on what I saw last night…

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… under the Obama-Biden tax structure. that is.
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It’s deja vu all over…

Flashback to 2012: Sen. Harry Reid took to the well to shock the nation with the revelation that “the word is out” that Mitt Romney hadn’t paid taxes in 10 years.

click to view 1-minute video

PolitiFact rated Reid’s allegation “Pants on Fire.”

Reid’s rejoinder:

“Well, they can call it whatever they want. Romney didn’t win, did he?” Source

Well, if it worked once, why not try it again?

Cue the NY Times:

Shocker, right?

Trump used the Obama-Biden tax code to his advantage.

The word is out…

Not anonymous sources … on tape!
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You probably remember the Atlantic article that quoted 4 anonymous sources claiming that Trump called soldiers “losers & suckers”.

29 named sources — including Trump nemesis John Bolton, who was in the room when the slurs are alleged to have been made —  refuted the accusations.

Nonetheless, Biden ran with the story.

In an emotional speech, he said the words made him as mad as he’s ever been …  that they trampled on the memory of  his late son Beau.

Subsequently, Biden has used the discredited Atlantic reporting in TV ads and in many of his speeches.

That may end.

Why?

A video has surfaced of Biden addressing a group of soldiers.

click to view 10 sec snippet … transcript below.

The verbatim:

Clap for that, you stupid bastards.

Come on, man.

Man, you all are a dull bunch.

Must be slow here, man.”

Biden’s faithful say he was just making a joke.

Doesn’t look like the soldier in the picture thought the joke was very funny.

Think Biden will use the “losers & suckers” line in Tuesday’s debate?

I’m betting the under on that one.

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P.S. I am betting the over on Twitter and Facebook banning the video as “disinformation”.

Consensus is that Trump will roll a cognitively weakened Biden in next week’s debate.

Fearing the worst, Pelosi’s has advised Slow Joe to skip the debates, giving rise to fringe conjecture that Biden won’t post for the debate.

Wildest machination that I’ve heard is that Biden will claim to have tested positive for COVID right before the debate — getting him some shoulda-stayed-home sympathy and a doc’s note for his absence.  All followed by a DeWine-like negative test on Sept. 30.

My view: Biden will show up and, given expectations, Trump has lots of downside … and, Biden has lots of upside.

Flashback to the way Biden shredded Paul Ryan in 2012 …

click for 3-min excerpt

Ryan had the IQ edge by about 100 points and brought his clean-as-a-Scout persona.

So, how did Biden handle him?

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To say the least, RBG’s death is disruptive
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Here are my takeaways from last night’s chatter:

1. Roes v. Wade is on the ballot again.

Politely stated, the make-up of the SCOTUS will surpass COVID and law & order as the most important issue.  That will rally the evangelicals (for Trump) and the pro-choice crowd (to Biden).

My hunch: The pro choice crowd is already in Biden’s camp.  Evangelicals will go from lukewarm on Trump to “hold your nose” when voting.

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2. Trump will certainly go forward with a quick nomination, probably pre-vetted Amy Coney Barrett.

For Trump, it’s  a manhood issue and it puts his legacy is at stake.

The Dems will “Kavanaugh” her for sure.  But doing so, will rally some suburban women back to Trump.

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3. Election voting issues will largely be determined by lower courts

Late & questionable mail-in ballots will be this election’s hanging chads that determine who wins.

It’s very unlikely that confirmation can happen before or soon after the election.

So, any issues that make it to the SCOTUS are likely to score a 4-4 tie … with CJ Roberts voting with the liberals.

That means that lower court decisions will stand.

Trump’s lower court-loading may work to his advantage

Venue shopping will key.  Expect the Dems to overload the liberal 9th circuit.

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4. Confirmation hangs with Collins & Romney

Romney hates Trump and vote against any nomination … even one that is completely consistent with his few moral principles.

Collins will likely lose her election because she cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.

Losing frees her to vote her conscience and gives her a chance to stick it to the Maine voters who rejected her.

Ironically, Trump may benefit from a Collins’ loss.

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This is going to be very interesting….

For the “you can’t make this stuff up” file
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Hoping to validate his “cool” credentials and  to connect directly with the intimately few attendees  at a Hispanic Heritage Month Event in Kissimmee, FL … here’s the way that Hidin’ Joe Biden opened his speech:

MUST WATCH=> click to view – 39 seconds

The song is the sexy-salsa hit “Despacito”.

Besides Biden’s awkwardness, here’s what makes Biden’s song choice such a head-scratcher…

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RealClearPolitics (RCP) tracks betting odds at 6 live betting “books”.

At the end of July, the RCP Betting Odds had Biden up 24 over Trump — 61 to 37.

By the start of the Democratic Convention, Biden’s advantage had narrowed to 12 … 56 to 43.

Coming out of the conventions, Biden’s lead is down to 6 … 53 to 47.

Let the games begin.

Say, what? C’mon, man.
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Holy Smokes.

Over the weekend, hard-left Politico ran an article sub-titled “What Obama really thinks about  Biden”.

Since it’s the eve of the Dem convention, I expected it to be puff piece.

Suffice it to say that I was surprised.

In Obama-speak, the former President “took Joe to the hoop”…

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DJT nailed the main Super Tuesday takeaways in 2 Tweets ….

My observation: Bloomberg’s 1st debate was like the curtain being pulled back in the Wizard of Oz … a self-inflicted wound that neutralized hundreds of millions of dollars of advertising.

My question: Will a humiliated Bloomberg continue to pour money behind Biden, Congressional Dem candidates and his causes – which obviously didn’t resonate with voters … or, will he take his wallet back home and sulk?

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My observation: Rather than drop out before yesterday’s vote (ala Pete, Amy, and Beto), Warren stayed in.  Doing so, she demonstrated that her “higher purpose” of supporting the “Progressive cause” was a bunch of BS. Her vote totals — while meager — would have shifted a couple  of states towards Bernie … or at least narrowed Biden’s delegate lead.

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Final take: Trump versus Biden will be fun to watch … especially since the Bernie Bros will stay home.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

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During the last Dem debate, Mike Bloomberg claimed that his election generosity “bought” the Dems a majority in Congress.

Obviously, the GOP would like like to regain a Congressional majority to stop the constant stream of heretofore fruitless investigations that Pelosi & Schiff have instigated.

But, for the GOP. the stakes may be even higher than that.

Keeping the White House may depend on winning the Congress….

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During this week’s Dem debate, my mind wandered to wondering about possible running mate choices.

I’m already on record projecting that Klobuchar would be a natural running mate for Biden if he rises from the ashes and snags the nomination.

• See our prior post: How Biden & Klobuchar could both become president.

Apparently, Amy is on that mind track, too.

Anybody notice how many times she said that she’s the one candidate that has sway in the swing Midwest states?

What if Sanders gets the nod? Who will he select?

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