The Homa Files

Yesterday, we posted a summary of the polls & odds re: Georgia’s Senate runoff elections.

In a nutshell: Polls have Perdue & Loeffler up by a couple of points; betting markets have GOP odds of avoiding a Dem sweep at 75-25; stock market has been “melting up”

A couple of loyal readers have asked me — given the data — how do I think the election will turn out?

Keeping in mind that I’m nothing more than a curious, analytical guy with no particular political expertise or inside info …

My answer: I’m scoring the odds at 60-40 that the Dems sweep both seats.

Here’s my logic…

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First, I dismiss the possibility of a split decision — that the Dems and GOP each win one seat.

I think the 2 runoffs are inextricably linked … in stats-speak, they’re not independent events.

For sure, I expect one of the parties to sweep both seats.

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Second, I’m swayed by a statement that the chief Trafalgar pollster made right before the Presidential election.

He noted that their polling had Trump was up by 2 points in  Pennsylvania… but that wouldn’t be enough to overcome the voting shenanigans that he expected.

Specifically, he said that Trump would have to be up by at least 5 points to win the state.

That was true in PA … and, I think the same will be true in GA.

To that point …

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Third, I’m swayed by an old joke:

A missionary and a bible salesman meet in a bar. The missionary says “Hey, we’re in the same line of work.”  The bible salesman replies “No we’re not. You’re trying to convert the masses.  I’m just trying to sell bibles.”

In GA, the GOP is seeking converts: “Stop Socialism”; the Dems are selling bibles: “Round up the votes.”

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Fourth, I don’t think that anything significant will be done to clean up the apparent abuses in GA’s election processes.

Signature verification is a pipe dream.  Election observers will still be kept at bay.  There’ll be scores of dead, duplicated and “proxy” voters.

The Dems will continue to play in the gray areas of the law.

The GOP will continue complaining to the refs.

And, to avoid controversy & confrontation, the refs  will continue to “let them play”.

Dems will understandably take advantage of that.

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Put it all together and I score it 60-40 in favor of a Dem sweep.

What do you think?

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For the record: I’m all for split government and gridlock to keep Congress (and Presidents) in check … especially now,  given Schumer’s promise the “Change America”.

If the Dems sweep, GOP dismay, get out their tax-paying checkbooks and refrain: “told you so”; rational Dems will initially rejoice and then be shocked into “OMG”; radical Dems will be dancing in the streets … until 2022.

And, oh yeah, if the Dems sweep, the SCOTUS justices will squeal like pigs as they welcome their dozen or so new members and see their illustrious lifetime positions forever diminished.  They’ll have themselves to blame for turning a blind eye on election improprieties.

This entry was posted on December 21, 2020 at 10:00 am and is filed under 2020 Presidential Campaign. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.