Oct. 30: Election – National Polls

The devil is in the details !

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 43.7   Lead 7.4


Takeaways: (1) Biden over 50% (2) Gap is narrowing, but still formidable

How formidable?

Let’s drill down on the RCP numbers …


> Here are the 10 polls that go into the current RCP national averages:

Note: The official RCP source data exhibit is at the end of this post.


> Looking at the 3 most recent polls (those reporting on Oct. 28), Biden drops below 50% and his  7.4% advantage drops to 3.3%



> Note that 5 of the 10 polls are sponsored by left-leaning media outlets (highlighted in yellow):


> Those 5 polls report Biden’s lead to be 10.4 percentage points:


> The other 5 polls cut that 10.4 lead to only 4.4 percentage points.




(1) All current RCP polls indicate that Biden is leading, but …

(2) Left-leaning media sponsored polls may be overstating Biden’s lead. and…

(3) The most recent polls indicate that the gap is narrowing, arguably within the margin of error

Pivotal Questions:

(1) How many underreported “shy” Trump supporters are there?

(2) How big is the “enthusiasm gap”?

(3) Who has the stronger get-out-the-vote program?

This is getting interesting…


Source Data Exhibit from RCP:image

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