The Homa Files

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.0  Trump  45.8  +3.2

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has the race tied in FL, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has WI in a statistical tie, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … counting will drag on

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

This entry was posted on October 30, 2020 at 11:02 am and is filed under 2020 Election - Odds & Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.