Jan. 5: GA Senate Odds & Polls

ELECTION DAY – FINAL REPORTING
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PredictIt Betting Market  Jan. 5 (6 a.m.)

Betting markets indicating 57-43 chance that at least one of the GOP candidates will win …. down from 73-29 two weeks ago and 63-37 last week … up from 55-45 yesterday

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

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Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

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RCP Poll-of-Polls
Latest Polls: DEAD HEAT in BOTH RACES

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Here are some details (i.e. the “internals”) from the most recent poll…

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INSIDER ADVANTAGE  Latest Poll

> IA tends to be right-leaning; sample was 48% GOP, 38% Dem, 12% Independent

> GOP leads in both races by less than 1 percentage point … a statistical tie.

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Demographic splits are practically identical for both races

> Perdue & Loeffler (P&L) lead among older voters by 4 percentage points (pp) … Ossoff & Warnock (O&W) lead among younger voters by 7.5 pp.

> P&L lead among White voters 68.5% to 28.5% … O&W lead among Black voters 92% to 8%  (Note: GA population is approximately 57.8% White, 31.9 Black)

> Men skew ~55% to 45% towards P&L … women skew ~55% to 45% for O&W … ~3% of women are undecided.

> 85% of GOP voters favor P&L … 95% of Dem voters favor O&W … P&L lead with Independents: Perdue leads with Independents 52.5% to 45.8% … Loeffler leads with Independents 47.5% to 44% 

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Voters split roughly 50-50 re: whether the general election was “fair & accurate”

> Fair & accurate: 47.9%; Not fair & accurate: 46.4%; Undecided: 5.7%

> 75% of GOP thought the general election was not fair & accurate … 85% of Dems thought it was fair and accurate … Independents split 50% yes, 45% no, 5% undecided 

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Bottom line: Yep, it’s all about turnout.

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P.S. I wonder what the split is between voters who paid Federal income taxes in 2019 … and those who didn’t.

I bet that would be illuminating…

 


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