Oct. 31: Election – Battlegrounds

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  45.8  +3.1



Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in AZ, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds


If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on


Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

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