Election – Polling & Results

As of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m)…

Biden is leading the national popular vote by 2.4% (50.4% to 48.0%)

How does that rack up against the final polls?

The final RCP poll-of-polls projected Biden would win the the popular vote by 6.7% …a 3.6 percentage points miss.

Drilling down on the 11 polls that RCP included in their final average …

  • The IBD/TIPP poll (which, along with Trafalgar, was most accurate in 2016) is closest to the pin @ 3%
  • 10 of the 11 overstated Biden’s margin
  • Worst misses were Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Economist/YouGov



Also, as of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m), the only battleground state that’s settled is Florida.

  • NC & PA haven’t been called
  • AZ is uncertain (despite FNN’s early call)
  • WI will likely be recounted; MI will be litigated
  • GA and NV emerged as battlegrounds.

Here’s final polling for the 6 states that RCP considered to be battlegrounds going into the election:



Specifically, looking at Florida which Trump won by 3.4%…

  • Silver-535 projected Biden to be the odds on winner (69% to 31%)
  • Trafalgar, Insider Advantage and Susquehanna called the Trump win.
  • Trafalgar was closest to the pin, projecting a Trump win by 2.1%
  • The RCP average projected a .9% Biden win …  that’s 4.3 percentage points off the final
  • Biden was projected to win big by Quinnipiac (an 8.4 percentage point miss) and CNBC (an 6.4 percentage point miss)



Conceivably, the pollsters will be somewhat vindicated when the rest of the states are finalized … but, but I’m betting the under on that one.

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