As of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m)…
===============
Biden is leading the national popular vote by 2.4% (50.4% to 48.0%)
How does that rack up against the final polls?
The final RCP poll-of-polls projected Biden would win the the popular vote by 6.7% …a 3.6 percentage points miss.
Drilling down on the 11 polls that RCP included in their final average …
- The IBD/TIPP poll (which, along with Trafalgar, was most accurate in 2016) is closest to the pin @ 3%
- 10 of the 11 overstated Biden’s margin
- Worst misses were Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Economist/YouGov
=============
Also, as of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m), the only battleground state that’s settled is Florida.
- NC & PA haven’t been called
- AZ is uncertain (despite FNN’s early call)
- WI will likely be recounted; MI will be litigated
- GA and NV emerged as battlegrounds.
Here’s final polling for the 6 states that RCP considered to be battlegrounds going into the election:
==============
Specifically, looking at Florida which Trump won by 3.4%…
- Silver-535 projected Biden to be the odds on winner (69% to 31%)
- Trafalgar, Insider Advantage and Susquehanna called the Trump win.
- Trafalgar was closest to the pin, projecting a Trump win by 2.1%
- The RCP average projected a .9% Biden win … that’s 4.3 percentage points off the final
- Biden was projected to win big by Quinnipiac (an 8.4 percentage point miss) and CNBC (an 6.4 percentage point miss)
==============
Conceivably, the pollsters will be somewhat vindicated when the rest of the states are finalized … but, but I’m betting the under on that one.
The Homa Files 
Leave a Reply