Election – Polling & Results

As of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m)…
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Biden is leading the national popular vote by 2.4% (50.4% to 48.0%)

How does that rack up against the final polls?

The final RCP poll-of-polls projected Biden would win the the popular vote by 6.7% …a 3.6 percentage points miss.

Drilling down on the 11 polls that RCP included in their final average …

  • The IBD/TIPP poll (which, along with Trafalgar, was most accurate in 2016) is closest to the pin @ 3%
  • 10 of the 11 overstated Biden’s margin
  • Worst misses were Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Economist/YouGov

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Also, as of this moment (Nov. 5, 8 a.m), the only battleground state that’s settled is Florida.

  • NC & PA haven’t been called
  • AZ is uncertain (despite FNN’s early call)
  • WI will likely be recounted; MI will be litigated
  • GA and NV emerged as battlegrounds.

Here’s final polling for the 6 states that RCP considered to be battlegrounds going into the election:

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Specifically, looking at Florida which Trump won by 3.4%…

  • Silver-535 projected Biden to be the odds on winner (69% to 31%)
  • Trafalgar, Insider Advantage and Susquehanna called the Trump win.
  • Trafalgar was closest to the pin, projecting a Trump win by 2.1%
  • The RCP average projected a .9% Biden win …  that’s 4.3 percentage points off the final
  • Biden was projected to win big by Quinnipiac (an 8.4 percentage point miss) and CNBC (an 6.4 percentage point miss)

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Conceivably, the pollsters will be somewhat vindicated when the rest of the states are finalized … but, but I’m betting the under on that one.

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