The Homa Files

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  46.6  +2.3

RCP Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in NC, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

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Trafalgar* Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

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My election day POV:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags  Tillis & McSally to victory (and Ernst in IA)

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

> TX looms as a wildcard given very high early voting volume.

> Collins scores a come from behind in Maine

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* Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

This entry was posted on November 3, 2020 at 1:00 pm and is filed under 2020 Election - Odds & Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.