The Homa Files

.. and, there are two X-factors that may sway their gubernatorial votes.
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Today, let’s set the context…

In a couple of recent marquee elections, GOP candidates were leading on election night as vote tallies rolled in … only to be swamped when the vote totals from Northern Virginia  got posted.

That was the case in the 2020 presidential race.

The vote totals were pretty even in prime time.

Trump was hanging in, then: boom!

Northern Virginia  votes were posted and Biden walked away with a 10 point statewide win … easily carrying the predominantly Black precincts in southeast Virginia (Richmond, Virginia Beach) … and crushing Trump in Northern Virginia (Fairfax County by 40 points, Loudoun County by 20 points).

You see, Northern Virginia (NOVA) has aa large population with a commanding presence of government employees, federal contractors and an assortment of governmental leeches (e.g. lawyers, lobbyists, consultants).

Usually, they’re a lock for big government and liberal Dem candidates.

As James Freeman puts it in the WSJ:

Given the growth of the Beltway swamp, Virginia’s largely government-dependent voters now regularly vote for the leftwardmost major-party candidate in statewide elections.

It makes complete sense.

Why would elite government-dependent voters bite the hand that feeds them?

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But, this year, I’m wondering if these usually reliable government-dependent voters might sit out this year’s gubernatorial election or, god forbid, cast their secret ballots for Youngkin.

Cutting to the chase ..

The polls are saying that Black support for Biden still very high, but waning (from over 80% to under 70% in many polls)… and there’s little enthusiasm among Blacks for McAuliffe (think: turnout).  That’s why Obama, Harris, Abrams, Booker are all appearing in campaign cameos.

The many rural red counties are a lock for Younkin, but turnout may be an issue since Trump isn’t on the ballot (despite what Obama and McAuliffe are chanting).

So, it all boils down to Northern Virginia.

If Youngkin slices, say, 10 points off the GOP disadvantage in Loudoun County (narrowing the gap from 20 to 10 points) and Fairfax County (from 40 to 30 points) … then Younkin very likely pulls off an upset.

Sounds like a heavy lift, but it may be possible.

Why?

Because of  2 electoral X-factors: education and vaccine mandates.

I’ll cover these electoral X-factors separately, tomorrow and Friday…

This entry was posted on October 27, 2021 at 8:00 am and is filed under Virginia politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.