About the election polls…
=============
A week or so before the election, the NY Tomes published a poll in conjunction with its polling partner Sienna University.
The poll’s results were contrary to the red wave being reported by other big name polling outfits.
Like many, I dismissed the NYT-Sienna Poll as an outlier… after all, it was the Dem partisan New York Times.
But, now that most of the dust has settled: The NYT-Sienna got all 4 of the most closely watched Senate races right.
Note: On the 5th — Ohio — NYT-Sienna pegged the race as a dead heat.
Not kinda right … nearly perfectly right!
Their share of votes predictions were practically dead on the final results.
============
How does that compare to the other top name polling services?
> The RCP’s poll-of-polls and Silver 535 were close in Ohio … had Kelly in AZ … but mis-called winners in NV, GA and PA
> Trafalgar … was closest to the pin on Ohio … but miscalled winners in NV, GA, PA and AZ … OUCH!
> NYT-Sienna … called ties in OH and NV … but were spot on the other 3 races.
My take: The NYT-Sienna poll was the clear winner this round.
Time to eat, so pass the crow to the other pollsters … and me, for buying into Trafalgar and the “wisdom of the (pollster) crowd”.
Oh well… better luck next time, right?
The Homa Files 
Leave a Reply