Who’s the man that Americans most admire?
According to Gallup — the most trusted polling organization — it’s a dead heat between former President Barack Obama and current President Donald Trump.
Photo source: Gallup
Both are “most admired” by 18% of Americans.
Trump’s score increased by 5 percentage points from 2018.
Obama’s inched down by a point over that period.
Pundits say that Trump’s increase is mostly attributable to the continuing economic boom
I’ll take that…
Obama’s decline?
In 2018, Obama was “most admired” by 39% of Dems … that number dropped to 35% in 2019.
Hypotheses include:
Gallup didn’t offer a point-of-view as to whether impeachment boosted or dampened Trump’s scores.
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Polling the public: the nays have it.
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OK, the Judicial Committee voted allong part lines to impeach … and Nadler published a 500 page report defending the decision.
With those acts in the book, there should be a public groundswell for impeachment, right?
Nope.
According to the RCP poll-of-polls, the lines have crossed and opposition to impeachment / removal now has a plurality:
Now, 46.7% support impeachment … but, oppose impeachment … 47.3% oppose it.
For the first time, opposition has a plurality.
Nice job Schiff & Nadler!
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A milestone today in the RCP poll-of-polls …
Support for impeachment and removal has dropped … opposition has increased … and, for the first time, support / opposition is now dead even.
Pelosi said no impeachment without bipartisan Congressional support and a groundswell of public support.
Well, looks like it’ll be partisan support and bipartisan opposition in Congress … and by the time the vote is taken next week, a plurality of public opposition to impeachment and removal.
Hmm.
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The classic Ronald Reagan campaign question seems likely to be resurrected in the 2020 election.
And, guess what?
Based on a recent Quinnipiac poll …
A majority — 57% of registered voters — think they’re better off now.
The breakdown: 87% of Republicans and 54% of independents think they’re doing better today … only 1/3 of Democrats share the joy.
Hmm.
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A couple of other interesting cuts …
A higher proportion of younger registered voters (think: millennials) think they’re doing better today (66%) … but less than half (47%) of seniors feel the same way.
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Two-thirds of whites think they’re doing better today … half of Hispanics think they’re doing better … but less than 1/3 of blacks think they’re doing better.
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Just like the vast majority of Americans !
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Here’s a set of stats to keep in mind when you watch or hear about Nadler’s impeachment hearings…
Trump has a 43.7% job approval.
Pelosi is at 37.1% favorability.
And, my favorite: only 26% have a “positive opinion of” Adam Schiff.
Surprisingly, Schiff low-ball 26% pulls up the Congressional numbers ..
According to the RCP poll-of-polls, only 22% of Americans approve of the job that Congress is doing.
Seems like contempt of Congress is even more widely spread than Trump-hating.
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There was practically no T-Day chatter among our friends & family re: the impeachment hearings.
It wasn’t out of respect for the holiday, it was pure apathy re: impeachment and the Schiff inquisition. Vast majority didn’t watch any of the hearings … and, flat out didn’t care.
So, I was surprised when I checked the polls to see how the numbers are moving.
Bottom line:
According to the RCP poll-of-polls … since Congress went on recess (i.e. no hearings held) … support for the hearings increased a bit … support is up by a point, opposition is down by a point.
Could be that Dem Congressmen were able to rally the cause when they went back home for the recess … or it could just be rounding error … or it could just be that absence makes the heart grow fonder.
Presuming the latter, I’m glad that Jerry Nadler is going to restart hearings and start drafting articles of impeachment.
For sure, that’ll rally the opposition.
===============
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And, public support for impeachment continues to erode.
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Earlier this week, we posted re: the dismal viewership the Dems’ impeachment hearings are getting.
Want an unmistakable indicator?
Well, CBS became the first major network to face reality — that nobody was watching the tedious hearings — and switched back to its usual soap operas, i.e. from one soap opera to another.
More important, the Pelosi-dreamed groundswell of support for impeachment sure doesn’t seem to be materializing…
Reuters / IPSOS: Support for impeachment cools.
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Speaker Pelosi has said repeated;y that impeachment requires public support that is broad and deep.
Her dream: Americans would be appalled by Trump’s asking the Ukrainian president to investigate 2016 election meddling and “look into” Hunter Biden’s lucrative set on a Ukrainian energy company’s board –despite zero experience in energy and no obvious ties to the Ukraine, save for his father’s political influence.
Surely, Adam Schiff’s secret interrogations would uncover a string of “bombshells” that would doom Trump’s presidency, right?
Well, the groundswell of public support seems to be sputtering…
Whose approval numbers were higher – Trump’s or Obama’s?
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Well, at this stage of their presidencies, Trump and Obama had approval ratings that were statistically equal.
Can’t be right … can it?
Below is the composite chart from RealClearPolitics — the bible of poll-of-polls aggregation.
Trump’s numbers are the bolder lines – black for approval, red for disapproval. Obama’s are the fainter lines – same color scheme.
Focus on the end-points — where the black lines converge.
That may be a little hard to read, so let’s zoom in to the summary box at the top…
5 point surge in past couple of months.
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If it were Rasmussen, we’d have to dismiss it as right-side bias, but this is an ABC-Washington Post Survey that’s reporting that despite a constant barrage of negative media coverage and a majority feeling that he acts unpresidential:
Aided by a strong economy and perceptions that he has dealt with it effectively, President Trump’s approval rating has risen to the highest point of his presidency.
Specifically, his approval has gone from 42% in April to 47% in July … a 5-point gain.
He’s still underwater by 3 points — 47% to 50% … but that gap has closed from the 12 point deficit in April) 42% to 54%).
How can this possibly be?
Last week, we posted Rasmussen poll results indicating that Trump’s approval got a bump after the SOTU.
Since Rasmussen leans right and doesn’t use classic interviewing techniques, it’s easy for some folks to dismiss the numbers.
But, Gallup is the gold standard of polling, right?
Well, the Rasmussen conclusion seems to be corroborated by Gallup.
The most recent Gallup survey indicates that (1) Trump has more than bounced back from the shutdown dip, and (2) His approval – which is at a high water mark – is double that of Congress!
So, what’s going on?
May put a new paint job on conference committee negotiations.
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First, a disclaimer of sorts.
Rasmussen skews right and its surveys are scoffed at by most traditional pollsters because they’re conducted without human contact … folks just answer questions via touch tone phone responses.
That said, I’ve found Rasmussen to be a good predictor on sensitive issues when people are reluctant to tell somebody what they think, but are willing to interact with an impersonal computer.
Bottom line: Rasmussen says “Trump’s approval rating among likely voters has soared since the State of the Union and are at an all time high.”
More specifically…
Conclusion: All politics is “identity politics”.
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The Economist and YouGov, a pollster, have surveyed thousands of Americans and built a statistical model to predict political party preferences.
Think: generic ballot for Congressional elections.
What did they find?
America’s founding fathers envisioned a republic in which free-thinking voters would carefully consider the proposals of office-seekers.
Today, however, demography seems to govern voters’ choices.
Specifically, Economist and YouGov identified a dozen demographic characteristics that highly predicted how people would vote in Congressional elections.
Let’s drill down on the the findings…
And, a Vegas odds-maker says that’s likely.
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Let’s connect a couple of dots today…
Nate Silver is the Democrat’s predictor of choice.
Remember, he’s the guru who said – on the day before the 2016 election – that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of winning.
Oops.
Of course, he retroactively said that he was talking about the popular vote – not the pesky electoral college …. and Hillary’s 90% meant conversely that Trump had a slim statistical chance that happened to materialize..
Vindicated, right?
So, what is Silver saying about today’s elections?
Cutting to the chase, he says that Democrats have an 86% chance of taking control of the House.
But, wiser with age, Nate is explicitly hedging his bet this time….
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Here’s Silver’s final pre-election banner headline:
Directly on-point, he says:
Hmmm
Could it be that the polling data is “systematically wrong” … again?
Sometimes I scratch my head and wonder whether “one man, one vote” makes sense.
Polls routinely reveal that a majority of Americans have marginal knowledge of government, politics, and political issues.
All citizens should be allowed to vote.
But, should these uninformed citizens vote?
YouGov.com conducted a survey that queried people’s opinions on that specific issue.
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Overall, it was a split vote … with a slight plurality (46%) saying that all citizens should vote and 42% saying that only the well-informed should vote.
The results are more interesting if you drill down to the poll’s “internals”:
Post-Kavanaugh, momentum seems to have shifted.
A few weeks ago, most pollsters predicted that Dems would win a Congressional majority and that they stood a shot at taking the Senate.
That picture seems to have changed … quite a bit.
RealClearPolitics is a down-the middle source that reports several polls-of-polls.
One tracks Congressional races, slotting them as likely Dem, likely GOP or toss-ups.
It takes 218 seats to control the Congress (which has 435 representatives).
A couple of weeks ago, RCP was reporting 206 seats as likely Dem, 191 likely GOP and 38 toss-ups.
Now, the RCP recap is Dems 206 and GOP 199 … with 30 toss-ups.
The Dem “hard” advantage has narrowed from 15 seats to 7 … with most of the GOP gain coming from the toss-ups (note the near mirror image of the GOP and toss-up lines).
What’s going on?
Last week, we reported Gallup findings that Americans satisfaction with the way they are being governed jumped 10 points in the past year …. and that 72% of Republicans are satisfied with the way the Trump administration is governing.
Predictably, the “satisfaction with governance” seems to be influencing the way that people view the Dem and GOP parties.
Gallup periodically surveys party favorability.
Their most recent poll was conducted during September during the run-up to the Kavanaugh hearings.
It’s headline conclusion:
In the past year, the GOP has erased an 8 point favorability disadvantage and now edges out the Dems by a point … that’s a 9 point swing.
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Let’s drill down on those numbers…
And, advantage seems to go to GOP.
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In a prior post, we reported an NPR survey finding that Dem’s enthusiasm advantage has evaporated.
There’s some directional support for that conclusion from a recent Rasmussen poll.
Let’s drill down….
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Specifically:
62% of vote-eligible Republicans say that they’re more likely to vote in the midterms because of the Kavanaugh controversies.
The 62% compares to 54% for Dems and 48% for Independents.
Arguably, the GOP and Dem numbers are a wash.
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64% of likely Republicans voters are “very angry” about the Senate’s treatment of Kavanaugh
Less than half (48%) of Dems are “very angry” about the Senate’s treatment of Dr. Ford.
I’d call 64% to 48% statistically significant.
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Rasmussen’s conclusion:
“Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh controversy than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.”
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Technical note: Rasmussen is often disparaged by pollsters because it’s a robocall survey.
But, in 2016, its method was one that early-captured the “hidden” Trump voters … in part because the method doesn’t require admitting a controversial opinion to human pollsters.
So, I often refer to Rasmussen for clues … but, wouldn’t bet the house on its specific findings.
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According to a recent Gallup poll, American’s satisfaction with the way they are being governed has bumped up by 10 points in the past year (the green line below).
38% now say they’re satisfied with the way they are being governed.
Let’s drill down on those numbers…
The Kavanaugh circus and former President Obama’s return to the campaign trail reminded me of an interesting analysis that NBC’s Chuck Todd did a couple of years ago.
So, let’s flashback:
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It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
Of course, Obama lays blame on Trump and his band of ignorant deplorables.
Let’s look at some inconvenient facts from Todd’s analysis…
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As Meet the Press host Chuck Todd puts it:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
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The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Based on the latest Pew data (from 2014), here’s where we stand:
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What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
There is less than 10% in each party leaning ideologically to the left (or right) of the other party’s median.
That’s where we are.
How did we get here?
“Kavanaugh Effect” awakening GOP voters.
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Interesting study conducted by NPR …
Prior to the Ford-Kavanaugh hearings, 78% of Dems considered the midterm elections to be very important.
The obvious underlying force: adversity to President Trump.
Only 68% of GOP considered the midterms to be very important.
Chalk that up to midterm complacency and confidence that all folks would appreciate that the economy is doing quite well.
That’s a 10 point gap in a proxy measure of voter enthusiasm and likelihood of turning out to vote.
Recent events have closed that gap…
The answer may surprise you.
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A survey outfit called Brand Keys periodically measures a “Customer Loyalty and Engagement Index” that examines 1,287 brands across 150 categories to determine how much “trust” contributed to each brand’s engagement and market success.
For TV “brands”, 4,012 viewers rated broadcast and cable brands that they regularly watch to determine how much trust those brands engendered. Source
The tightly bunched “most trusted TV brands” at the top of the list are the BBC, Fox News and PBS.
Bloomberg and MSNBC fall in the middle of the pack.
The bottom of the pack are the Big 3 networks and CNN.
Hmmm.
What about ratings?
Since we’re heading down the homestretch towards the tax filing deadline … …
Pew Research says that overall, 33% of Americans say they do their own taxes while 56% say someone else prepares their taxes.
A majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes 1 in 4 say they hate doing them.
Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes:
About a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes.
Here are some details re: the “likers” and lovers …
According to Pew, teens don’t care (and, they’re in control now, right?)
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Thanks to social media, today’s teens are the first to have a complete record of their whole lives — their thoughts, their actions, and their friends.
Eric Schmidt — Google chairman and ex-CEO — worries, however, that they’ll be the first who’ll never be allowed to forget their mistakes.
Schmidt says: “People are now sharing too much.”
More specifically, privacy pundits say that it just takes your name, zip code and birth date to ID you and start linking your online and offline personal data … forever.
Now, Pew has published a research study re: teen’s online habits .
Here are the Pew results …
Over 25% say that they are on the internet “constantly”
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According to a 2018 Pew Research Center survey, 88% of American adults use the internet … and about 90% of the users are online daily.
26% of American adults are constantly online … and another 43% go online several times a day.
Source: Pew Research
The profile of heavy users (constantly online) follows conventional wisdom … with a notable exception.
Since we’re heading to tax filing deadlines …
According to Pew Research:
Overall, 33% of Americans say they do their own taxes while 56% say someone else prepares their taxes.
A majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes 1 in 4 say they hate doing them.
Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes:
About a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes.
Here are some details re: the “likers” and lovers …
A couple of charts provide some statistical context.
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Pew conducted an extensive survey in March-April 2017.
Here are some of the key findings.
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Roughly 1 in 3 American adults currently own a gun.
40% live in a household that has at least one gun owner.
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In addition to the 30% of American adults who own a gun, 36% “could see owning a gun in the future”.
Said differently, about 2 of 3 Americans are inclined towards gun ownership.
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Digging a bit deeper …
In the old days it was called the “silent majority”
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yesterday, we reprised a post: America’s political polarization in 3 charts …
That analysis ended in 2014 … showing a double-humped distribution that had been separating over the past decade or so.
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New data is now available, so let’s advance the picture to 2017
Source: WaPo analysis of Pew data
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The humps have spread further apart … indicating sharper polarization.
The peaks are higher … especially the one on the left,
Also, note the vanishing middle (the dark blue on the graphic).
Now, let’s drill down another level…
You probably over-rate your “niceness” … but that’s OK.
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According to the UK Independent …
You may consider yourself to be a nice person, but a new study concludes that you’re probably not as nice as you think.
Psychologists at the University of London have discovered that 98 per cent of British people think they’re part of the nicest 50 per cent of the population.
Participants in the study were given a list of “nice” behaviors and asked which ones they do.
They claimed to do easy stuff like giving directions to lost souls, holding doors open or giving Granny their seat on the bus.
But, their niceness had limits …
The respondents stopped short of giving money to needy strangers (less than 1 in 5) or helping Granny cross the street (about 1 in 4).
Still, there’s some very good news …
And, are they swayed by it?
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Interesting article in the WSJ channeling a study by three political scientists from Princeton, Dartmouth and the University of Exeter…
The objective of their study was to validate or refute the common Democratic hypothesis that “fake news” elected Donald Trump … that “Trump voters were duped by fringe websites that traffic in misinformation, and that if those voters were better informed, Hillary Clinton would be president today.”
Their findings may surprise you …
Marist Poll releases 2017 list … mine wasn’t on it.
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Every year, the Marist Poll conducts a survey to ID the word that most annoys Americans.
For the 9th consecutive year, this year’s winner: ‘whatever…’.
According to the folks at Marist, ‘whatever’ first gained infamy about 20 years ago in the movie Clueless.
Here are the runners-up and my pick ….
Answer: Probably a majority of Alabama voters.
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Have you noticed what’s been happening in the Alabama Senate race?
Note that – after a couple of weeks of losing poll numbers – creepy old Roy Moore has pulled back into the lead.
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Let’s dissect the numbers a bit …
You probably over-rate your “niceness” … but that’s OK.
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According to the UK Independent …
You may consider yourself to be a nice person, but a new study concludes that you’re probably not as nice as you think.
Psychologists at the University of London have discovered that 98 per cent of British people think they’re part of the nicest 50 per cent of the population.
Participants in the study were given a list of “nice” behaviors and asked which ones they do.
They claimed to do easy stuff like giving directions to lost souls, holding doors open or giving Granny their seat on the bus.
But, their niceness had limits …
The respondents stopped short of giving money to needy strangers (less than 1 in 5) or helping Granny cross the street (about 1 in 4).
Still, there’s some very good news …
Yesterday, we posted a Pew survey finding:
“Each party has become more ideologically homogeneous, and more hostile toward the opinions of members of the other party.”
Oh, my.
On a slightly lighter side, the nation is even divided on housing preferences:
“Overall, Americans are equally divided between wanting to live in a community with larger houses farther apart, where schools, shops and restaurants are not nearby (48%), and those who want to live in smaller houses closer together but within walking distance to schools and shops (47%).”
Now, one might expect that housing preferences wouldn’t be a political flashpoint, right?
It’s no great secret that America is increasingly polarized politically.
For a revealing animated infographic, see America’s political polarization in 3 charts …
According to Pew surveys: (1) there was a political divide in the Clinton years, but also a sizeable overlapping middle (2) there was a slight convergence to the middle in the post 9-11 Bush years, and (3) there was a widening divide and shrinking middle during the Obama years.
Fast forward to today.
The answer may surprise you …
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Chapman University does an annual survey of Americans’ fears
Here’s some quick background ….
The study queries on 11 “Domains of Fear”:
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The study deep dives into specific fears within each domain:
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OK, make your pick from the above list.
What do Americans fear the most?
Interesting analysis from NBC’s Chuck Todd.
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It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
As Meet the Press host Chuck Todd puts it:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
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The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Here’s where we stand today:
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What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
There is less than 10% in each party leaning ideologically to the left (or right) of the other party’s median.
That’s where we are today.
How did we get here?
Interesting analysis from NBC’s Chuck Todd.
========
It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
As Meet the Press host Chuck Todd puts it:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
=========
The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Here’s where we stand today:
=========
What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
There is less than 10% in each party leaning ideologically to the left (or right) of the other party’s median.
That’s where we are today.
How did we get here?
But, the numbers are, shall we say, curious at best.
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NBC has been trumpeting results of a Survey Monkey poll that it conducted in association with Survey Monkey:
“A majority of Americans — 54 percent — think that President Donald Trump’s abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey was not appropriate”.
Color me skeptical on this one.
Here’s why …
Well, actually, there’s somebody who is worse..
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The Washington Post just reported a poll that is, charitably speaking, unfavorable for President Trump.
According to the Post’s analysis:
Trump has reached the 100-day marker in his presidency faring worse to much worse than other recent presidents.
Specifically: Trump’s approval rating stands at 42%, the lowest recorded at this stage of a presidency dating to Dwight Eisenhower.
In comparison, President Obama’s approval was 69% at this point in his Presidency.
But, to the obvious shock & dismay of the WaPo’s reporters, there doesn’t seem to be much indication of buyer’s remorse.
You probably over-rate your “niceness” … but that’s OK.
=======
According to the UK Independent …
You may consider yourself to be a nice person, but a new study concludes that you’re probably not as nice as you think.
Psychologists at the University of London have discovered that 98 per cent of British people think they’re part of the nicest 50 per cent of the population.
Participants in the study were given a list of “nice” behaviors and asked which ones they do.
They claimed to do easy stuff like giving directions to lost souls, holding doors open or giving Granny their seat on the bus.
But, their niceness had limits …
The respondents stopped short of giving money to needy strangers (less than 1 in 5) or helping Granny cross the street (about 1 in 4).
Still, there’s some very good news …
Interesting analysis from NBC’s Chuck Todd.
========
It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.
As Meet the Press host Chuck Todd puts it:
Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.
The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.
Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.
=========
The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.
One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.
Here’s where we stand today:
=========
What the chart means …
Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.
There is less than 10% in each party leaning ideologically to the left (or right) of the other party’s median.
That’s where we are today.
How did we get here?
Here’s why repeal & replace is so challenging …
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Behavioral theorists have long observed that most people are risk adverse and, due in part to an “endowment effect”, they “value” losses greater than gains.
Endowment Effect: People tend to ascribe a higher value to things that they already own than to comparable things that they don’t own. For example, a car-seller might think his sleek machine is “worth” $10,000 even though credible appraisers say it’s worth $7,500. Sometimes the difference is due to information asymmetry (e.g. the owner knows more about the car’s fine points), but usually it’s just a cognitive bias – the Endowment Effect.
The chart below illustrates the gains & losses concept.
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For example, would you take any of these coin flip gambles?
Most people pass on #1 and #2, but would hop on #3 and #4.
OK, now let’s show how all of this relates to ObamaCare.
18% say the law has helped their families; 29% say it has hurt them
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ObamaCare is front-and-center again as the GOP controlled Congress starts the process of repealing and replacing.
A repeated Dem talking point yesterday was how the majority of Americans support ObamaCare.
Sorry, Charlie, but the data doesn’t seem to support the claim.
Gallup has been tracking public sentiment towards ObamaCare for the past couple of years.
Bottom line:
More people have disapproved of ObamaCare since its inception … for most of the past 4 years, a majority has disapproved … most recently, the there has been a 7 point gap – 51% disapproving to 44% approving.
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Why the majority disapproval ?
Majority of Americans expect 2017 to be better than 2016.
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FLOTUS Michelle Obama chatted with slimmed-down Oprah recently, lauding her hubbies accomplishments (and fretting that the era of hope & change is ending, replaced by pervasive (and justified) melancholy.
She asserted that her husband had succeeded in keeping his campaign promise of fostering hope.
And, she opined: “The U.S. is entering a time of hopelessness We are feeling what not having hope feels like. We can feel the difference now.”
Worry not, Michelle.
Polling firm GFK conducted a survey for the AP that asked people how 2016 was for them personally and what their expectations are for 2017.
Here’s what they found …
Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?
Originally posted July 20, 2016
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The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.
Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..
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MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.
According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%
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No surprise there …
But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…
An unconventional technique found Trump’s “hidden” support.
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In a pre-election poll, the Trafalgar Group conclude that Trump had hidden support from an additional 3 percent to 9 percent of voters who didn’t want to reveal their true opinions to pollsters.
The company is betting its future by publicly testing — at its own expense — its own methods.
Trafalgar’s CEO Robert Cahaly says:
“On Wednesday, I’m either going to be guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore.”
Monday, November 7, 2016
Trafalgar’s polls are unconventional, designed to capture opinions from people who otherwise avoid lengthy interviews on the phone.
Here’s how they do it …
I just wanted to get this one onthe record before the polls close.
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Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at Stony Brook University, has a Presidential election model that is largely driven by how well a candidate did in his/her party’s primary elections.
Before you chuckle … Norpath’s model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000.
Earlier in the year, Norpoth predicted an 87% chance that Trump would prevail since he vanquished 15 competitors (winning NH & SC) –while Clinton tight tussled Bernie Sanders (losing both NH &SC).
Now, despite the plethora of polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points, Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model
He says: “If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it. It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”
Norpoth will “certainly have bragging rights if he’s right,” since just about everyone else is calling the race for Clinton.
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No one can ever accuse Prof. Norpoth of “herding” – the tendency of forecasters go with most popular prediction.
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