Since 1912, this model has only mis-called one Presidential elections…

I just wanted to get this one onthe record before the polls close.


Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at Stony Brook University, has a Presidential election model that is largely driven by how well a candidate did in his/her party’s primary elections.


Before you chuckle … Norpath’s model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000.

Earlier in the year, Norpoth predicted an 87% chance that Trump would prevail since he vanquished 15 competitors (winning NH & SC) –while Clinton tight tussled Bernie Sanders (losing both NH &SC).

Now, despite the plethora of polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points, Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model

He says: “If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it. It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

Norpoth will “certainly have bragging rights if he’s right,” since just about everyone else is calling the race for Clinton.



No one can ever accuse Prof. Norpoth of “herding” – the tendency of forecasters go with most popular prediction.



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