Economist: The demography of American voters…

Conclusion: All politics is “identity politics”.


The Economist and YouGov, a pollster, have surveyed thousands of Americans and built a statistical model to predict political party preferences.

Think: generic ballot for Congressional elections.

What did they find?

America’s founding fathers envisioned a republic in which free-thinking voters would carefully consider the proposals of office-seekers.

Today, however, demography seems to govern voters’ choices.

Specifically, Economist and YouGov identified a dozen demographic characteristics that highly predicted how people would vote in Congressional elections.


Let’s drill down on the the findings…


Of the 12 statically significant variables, religion is the most significant … with atheists likely to vote Democratic and born again Christians likely to vote Republican.

Tech note: The length of the entire  bar – blue plus red – indicates the level of significance.

Race scored second in significance … while Blacks are dependably Democratic, Whites split between the parties.

Marital Status, Parental Status and Age are the weakest of the significant predictors … but, keep in  mind that they are still statistically significant … insignificant variables didn’t even make the list.


Most interesting …

Of course, each individual is a composite of the 12 characteristics … some of which may lead them to lean left or lean right.

So Economist and YouGov built an interactive tool that predicts a person’s political party preference based on their combination of characteristic.

It’s fun to play with …

Plug in your characteristics and see if the model has you pegged right … or create profiles that you think are an interesting combination … or keep hitting the ‘randomize’ button to see the results for different profiles.

Trust me, it’s a fun exercise… and, based on my trials, seems spot on.

Click to access the interactive ‘Build a Voter’ tool:



Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead.


Follow on Twitter @KenHoma
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