Silver’s hedge: ”Bet’s off if there is a systematic polling error”

And, a Vegas odds-maker says that’s likely.

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Let’s connect a couple of dots today…

Nate Silver is the Democrat’s predictor of choice.

Remember, he’s the guru who said – on the day before the 2016 election – that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of winning.

Oops.

Of course, he retroactively said that he was talking about the popular vote – not the pesky electoral college …. and Hillary’s 90% meant conversely that Trump had a slim statistical chance that happened to materialize..

Vindicated, right?

So, what is Silver saying about today’s elections?

image

Cutting to the chase, he says that Democrats have an 86% chance of taking control of the House.

But, wiser with age, Nate is explicitly hedging his bet this time….

 

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Here’s Silver’s final pre-election banner headline:

image

Directly on-point,  he says:

image

Hmmm

Could it be that the polling data is “systematically wrong” … again?

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Let’s look at a couple of other sources:

Rasmussen is an automated phone poll that often gets bashed by the pollsters who use live interviewers.

For the record,  Rasmussen did well in 2016.

Why?

Folks didn’t want to risk the wrath of a live interviewer by ‘fessing up to their intention to vote for Trump.

But, these folks were willing to “press 2 if …”.

So, Rasmussen caught more of the “hidden” Trump vote … the systematic bias in live-interviewer surveys.

Fast forward to today…

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In a recent poll, respondents told Rasmussen that:

60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections.

But, only 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

That, folks, is what breeds a “systematic polling error”.

Republicans and Independents are less likely to tell pollsters – or anybody else – how they’re going to vote.

Enough to tilt Silver’s predictions?

You bet, buddy.

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In fact, Wayne Allyn Root – a Vegas odds-maker who called Trump’s 2016 win – is on record predicting that history will repeat and that the GOP will hold the House.

Root’s logic:

1) Crowd size: Trumps rallies fill arenas – with literally thousands outside because they couldn’t get in;  Obama has been having trouble filling high school gyms; Biden and Sanders play to coffee shop gatherings.

2) The economy: GDP is growing, unemployment is down, wages are rising … and only loyal Dems believe that Obama’s anti-biz policies are what got the US economic machine humming again.  It sounds gauche to say you’re voting your pocketbook, but utomately, “it’s the economy, stupid”.

3) The whispers: Even moreso than in 2016, Trump supporters know that f they declare their allegiance, they’ll get jeered  … or these days, physically mauled.  So, they keep their voting intentions private – especially from pollsters.

Root summarizes:

I’ll go out on a limb again.

I’ll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political “expert.”

All of them…all of them…say the House is lost.

But they don’t have a clue what’s happening.

I predict they’re all wrong again.

The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump.

They support Trump.

They will reward Trump.

No problem, Nate Silver.

You’re on record that your bet is off if there’s a systematic polling error.

But, maybe you should see that coming…

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P.S. A safe prediction: If Root is right, colleges around the nation will cancel classes on Wednesday … just like they did in 2016.

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