NPR: Dem’s enthusiasm advantage has evaporated.

“Kavanaugh Effect” awakening GOP voters.

Interesting study conducted by NPR

Prior to the Ford-Kavanaugh hearings, 78% of  Dems considered the midterm elections to be very important.

The obvious underlying force: adversity to President Trump.

Only 68% of GOP considered the midterms to be very important.

Chalk that up to midterm complacency and confidence that all folks would appreciate that the economy is doing quite well.

That’s a 10 point gap in a proxy measure of voter enthusiasm and likelihood of turning out to vote.

Survey Results

Recent events have closed that gap…


Overall midterm enthusiasm has jumped from 69% to 75%.

Note: Some of that may be a natural increase as we get closer to the midterms

It’s the composition of that gain that’s the new news.

Dem enthusiasm has bumped up slightly from previous high levels … going from 80% to 82%.

GOP enthusiasm has bumped from only 68% to 80% … a 12 point swing that has essentially wiped out the Dems enthusiasm advantage (i.e. likely turnout edge).

Compounding the enthusiasm effect, the Dems advantage of the so-called generic ballot has also shrunk.

Pre-Kavanaugh, Dems were leading on the generic ballot by 12 points … 50% to 38%.

That lead has shrunk to 6 points … 48% to 42%.

Pundits generally say that a double-digit gap indicates a wave election; 5 points indicate a ripple; and, less than 5 points is just a plain old dogfight.


Bottom line: Data certainly suggests that there is a Kavanaugh Effect and that it’s working to the GOP’s advantage.

As I’ve said before, if Kavanaugh gets rejected, the Dems may win the the battle but lose the war.

Said differently, the likelihood of a continuing (or expanding) GOP Senate majority may increase, opening the door for a Dem nightmare scenario.

See: Justice Amy Coney Barrett ?

On the other hand, if Kavanaugh gets confirmed, I expect that their will be a sky-high bump in Dem turn-out.

Said differently, higher odds that Dems take control of the Senate … put the brakes on Trump’s agenda … and provide some “insurance” if, say, Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s SCOTUS slot becomes open.

Maybe Dems should be rooting that Kavanaugh gets confirmed.



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One Response to “NPR: Dem’s enthusiasm advantage has evaporated.”

  1. Shocker: Hearings stoked anger and likely voter turnout. | The Homa Files Says:

    […] In a prior post, we reported an NPR survey finding that  Dem’s enthusiasm advantage has evaporated. […]

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