Poll: So, should Kavanaugh be confirmed or not?

Former Clinton strategist Mark Penn took an interesting analytical cut at survey results from Harvard’s Center for American Politics Studies CAPS.

Penn’s overall conclusion:

“The testimony of Ford and Kavanaugh had a powerful but not decisive effect on the public.”

         Source: CAPS data; Penn analysis

Let’s drill down on the data logic…


According to CAPS and Penn:

1) In the days leading up to the testimony hearings, 82% had heard about the sexual harassment allegations.

2) 16% thought that the allegations were definitely true;  44% thought they were probably true).

3) Almost 90% reported seeing parts of the testimony or reading about it.

Note: Relatively few watched the full testimony sessions … most saw extracts on TV, summaries posted online or in newspapers; or, heard heard about it from friends.

4) 40% thought she alone was credible, 23% thought just Kavanaugh was, and 27% said both were believable.

Said differently, 67% found her credible and 50% found him to be so.

5) After the testimony was heard, 37% said confirm the nomination, 44% said reject it, and 18% were undecided.

Note: The numbers were heavily skewed by party affiliation., .

5) After the testimony,, 37% said to confirm the nomination, 44% said to reject it, and 18% were undecided.

6) But when the respondents were told that the named witnesses deny any knowledge of the allegation, this shifts to 57% in favor of confirmation.

Note: The survey didn’t remind the respondents that Dr. Ford can’t recall the when or where  the alleged incident. 

Chatting with folks, I’ve been amazed how many are unaware of the gaps and contradictions in Dr. Ford’s story.

My bet: the numbers would go up significantly that information was provided.

7) Over 60% said that Kavanaugh should be confirmed if the FBI agrees there is no corroboration.


Penn’s bottom line:

“Ultimately the public expects that the FBI will come back with little that’s new and 63 percent expect that the nomination will be approved.”

We’ll see…


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One Response to “Poll: So, should Kavanaugh be confirmed or not?”

  1. Everybody has an opinion on Dr. Ford’s allegations; some are hyperventilating. | The Homa Files Says:

    […] See Poll: So, should Kavanaugh be confirmed or not? […]

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