Justice Amy Coney Barrett ?

Dems may win the battle but lose the war … vice versa for the GOP
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It’ll be an interesting couple of news cycles as the Kavanaugh accusations either get substantiated or vaporize.

My initial take:  the allegations are serious but the case details are sketchy and the timing is suspicious.

In a court of law, I’d rather be Kavanaugh’s attorney since (a) the allegations go back 35 years (to high school!); (b) the accuser’s memory is fuzzy (e.g. where was the party held?) (c) no corroborators have stepped forward or have been discovered (who else attended the party?); (d) no other accusers have stepped forward to implicate a pattern of behavior; (e) first disclosure was made 30 years after-the-fact to a marital counselor.

But, in the court of public opinion – where accusation and verdict are synonymous and facts are fungible – I’d rather be the accuser’s attorney.

The quasi-legal situation should play out in warp speed over the next couple of days.

Today, let’s look at the politics…

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There are  couple of scenarios:

1) GOP throws Kavanaugh under the bus when a GOP Senator or two peels off from confirmation.

2) Trump holds firm on Kavanaugh and somehow musters the votes to get him confirmed.

Today, I’m betting on option #1 … and, I’m ok with that.

If Trump (and the slim GOP senatorial majority) hangs tough and Kavanaugh gets confirmed, the mid-terms will be a #MeToo bloodbath … and the rest of Trump’s agenda will stall.

If Kavanaugh is thrown under the bus, then either the Dems take the Senate, the SCOTUS stays 4 to 4 for 2 years and 2020 is all about the SCOTUS … or,  the GOP majority expands (since the GOP can market itself as the victim of injustice).

If the latter happens, Amy Coney Barrett – runner-up to Kavanaugh in Trump’s selection process – is back in play.

She’s the conservative Catholic mother of 7 from the heartland who currently serves on the 7th District Court of Appeals gets bumped up in the org chart.

Far be it for Trump to be vindictive, right?

So, the Dems may end up trading Kavanaugh for Barrett.

As the original Grandma Homa used to always say: “Be careful what you wish for”.

The next couple of days will be very interesting.

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4 Responses to “Justice Amy Coney Barrett ?”

  1. Jack Clark Says:

    Excellent analysis as always. How about an alternative of Republicans stand firm (it’s my dream) and refuse to let one of the best nominees in years get Borked by the worse set of elected humans in memory. They then nominate Barrett to replace the RBG when she departs the bench.

    Note: if the Republicans throw Kavanaugh under the bus their supporters may return the favor.

  2. Ben R Says:

    Mr. Clark, does it matter to you if the judge attempted rape and later lied about it? Shouldn’t we find out the truth before you decide?

  3. Justice Amy Coney Barrett ! | The Homa Files Says:

    […] little over a week ago, I posted Justice Amy Coney Barrett ? and warned Dems to be careful what they wished for … that tanking Kavanaugh would put Barrett back […]

  4. NPR: Dem’s enthusiasm advantage has evaporated. | The Homa Files Says:

    […] See: Justice Amy Coney Barrett ? […]

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