… on favorability and head-to-head electability.
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According to the latest Quinnipiac poll …
Biden’s job approval seems to have leveled off at a low level:
> 20% strongly approve (down 18 percentage points from Inauguration Day)
> 45% strongly disapprove (up 13 percentage points from Inauguration Day)
> Putting Biden currently underwater by 25 percentage points points.
Drilling down…
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Biden Competence
> A majority (55%) think that Biden is not competent to do the job
> 2 out of 3 Independents think that Biden is not competent to do the job
Hmm…
But at least he’s honest and and a nice guy, right?
Not exactly…
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Biden Honesty
> Only 42% think that Biden is honest; majority of those with an opinion think he’s not honest.
> 57% of Independents think he’s not honest.
OK, he’s not competent nor honest, but he’s a nice guy, right?
What?
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Biden “Favorability”
Quinnipiac asked: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable?
Apparently, “nice guy” (if true) doesn’t neutralize low scores on competence and honesty.
> Only 40% view Biden favorably (down 14 percentage points since Inauguration Day)
> 50% view him unfavorably (up 12 percentage points since Inauguration Day)
> Putting Biden’s current favorability score underwater by 10 percentage points).
If that isn’t bad enough…
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Trump’s Current “Favorability”
Here’s the ho-hum-crasher from the same Quinnipiac poll:
> Trump’s current favorability score is 41% (1 percentage point higher than Biden’s
> 52% view Trump unfavorably (only 2 percentage points more than Biden
> So, call it a tie … with both having majority unfavorable ratings
So, a broadly despised, mean tweeting, media pummeled, twice-impeached one-term president is viewed as warmly (or coldly) after nine months than the guy who was elected to replace him.
Can it be?
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Better Off or Worse Off?
Quinnipiac also asked a variant of the question that Ronald Reagan popularized:
Overall, do you think that the country is better off or worse off today than it was a year ago?
Keep in mind, that a year ago, we were pre-vaccine and largely shutdown economically and socially.
And, the answer is:
> A majority (52%) thinks that the country is worse off now than a year ago
> There’s near-unanimity among Republicans (94%) that the country is worse off
> Only 74% of Dems think that the country is better off now than a year ago … not fully offsetting the strong Republican view.
> Most telling, 56% of Independents (many of whom voted for Biden) think that the country is worse off now .
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Trump vs. Biden
To add a punctuation point to these survey results…
Pollsters from Grinnell (College) & Selzer Consulting conclude, based on their most recent survey:
> “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, the same percentage of likely voters would vote for former President Donald Trump (40%) as President Biden (40%)
> Among Independents, if a Trump – Biden election were held today, our poll shows former President Trump winning that group 45% to 28%.”
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The pieces all seem to tie together, folks.
The Homa Files 
October 22, 2021 at 8:19 pm |
Prof Homa, thanks for keeping up with stats.. my take,
Joe won on anti Trump votes. And Trump also won the election on anti Hilary votes.
unfortunately, these are the choices we are offered.