The Homa Files

A vast majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, but a slim majority voted for the status quo.

As one political pundit put it:

In my view, the strangest thing about the midterm election is how rigidly it preserved the status quo.

At a time when something like 70% of voters say we are on the wrong track, and explosive issues like crime, the cost of living and illegal immigration are roiling the electorate, voters nevertheless turned out for incumbents.

Are voters really that attached to the status quo?

Let’s drill down on that question…
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In the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, much was made of right track – wrong track polling.

In round numbers, over 2/3s of Americans think the country is on the wrong track … the other 1/3 think the country is on the right track or have no opinion one way or another.

From that data alone, it was reasonable to expect that the election would usher in sweeping change.

But it didn’t.

How can that be?

Again, just isolating on the right track – wrong track measurement, the answer is simple…

Americans may agree that the country is on the right track … but they don’t agree on what constitutes a right track.

From 50,000 feet, it may be that half of the wrong tracker think that the current track is too progressive … and half think that the current direction is too conservative.

For arguments sake, let’s assume that, objectively, the current status quo leans left.

Add the “too conservative” wrong trackers to the “right trackers” and, bingo, you have a voting majority.

Simple arithmetic, right?

So, why did so many pollsters and political pundits fall victim to the right track – wrong track paradox?

This entry was posted on November 14, 2022 at 7:00 am and is filed under 2022 election, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.