GOP surging in “generic ballot”.

Here’s the best explanation that I’ve found.
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First, the data…

According to the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls, the most recent weeks have been very, very good for the GOP.

One indicator: the generic congressional ballot which asks: Are you more likely to vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress?

The GOP held a big lead in the Spring, then the Dems closed the gap after SCOTUS’ Dodds decision.

But, look at the recent GOP surge (the yellow circle below).

image
Source: RCP

What’s going on?

The most most compelling explanation that I’ve come across is from conservative pundit Erick Erickson.

Erickson says:

Having run campaigns, covered campaigns, etc. I’ve observed a thing that happens in wave years.

About 3 weeks out, everything just shifts.

The undecideds begin to break.

They all break the same way.

The media rushes to capture it, which reinforces it.

Specifically, in years of a Republican wave, the media spends most of the time avoiding or downplaying the issues that the GOP is talking about.

Then, one day, the switch flips and those issues are all that anyone talks about.

In the past couple of weeks, CBS, MSNBC, ABC, CNN have all started airing voters who say crime is bad and getting worse.

Voters on CNN in PA are talking about how Fetterman has too many issues for their vote.

MSNBC talked to black voters in Philly overrun with crime.

CBS is talking to voters in AZ who are upset about crime, the economy and the border.

Once the media starts reporting instead of opinionating, the tide starts to roll in.  Source

Makes sense to me…

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