May 10: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 10, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,821  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 65,112 81% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 423 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 85 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,614  +54

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

So, why is the stock market doing so well?

May 9, 2020

WSJ says there are 5 reasons.
=============

This is an awkward post to write.

As much of the country is struggling to pay the rent and put food on the table, today I’m channeling a WSJ explanatory on why the stock market is doing as well as it is (down 9% from Feb. high, but up 30% from March low)

image

Putting my legacy of Catholic guilt aside… The WSJ offers 5 reasons:

  1. Counting on a quick economic rebound
  2. Big tech stocks are doing well during the crisis
  3. Optimism high for corporate earnings in 2021
  4. Rear of missing the upside
  5. The Fed is printing money.

Here are some supporting details & tidbits…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 9, 2020

1,697 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,834 
> 3-day trend 2,113

449 NY+NJ+CT 27% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
78,615
Worldometer
38,445  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 9: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 9, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 38,445  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 64,028 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 416 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 83 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,560  +57

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NYT: Travelers from New York “seeded” outbreak across the U.S.

May 8, 2020

From China to Europe to NYC to…
=============

Let’s start this story near the beginning…

By mid-March , it had become apparent that New York (more specifically, the NYC metroplex) was a blazing coronavirus hot spot.

It was also becoming apparent that the West Coast outbreaks had been “seeded” by travelers from China … and, that the NYC outbreak had been seeded from Europe.

At the March 24 Task Force Press conference, Dr. Birx casually mentioned that “60% of all the new coronavirus cases in the United States stem from the New York City metro area” and advised New Yorkers, wherever they were, to shelter-in-place. Source

It was commonly misconceived that Dr. Birx was saying that 60% of new cases were occurring in New York … ignoring the key words: “stem from”.

The governors of Rhode Island and Florida understood what she was clearly saying.

Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo’s directed state police to stop vehicles with New York license plates at the border, encourage them to u-turn … and if they demurred, to collect ID information from drivers and passengers and advise them to self-quarantine for 14 days to “stop the spread”. She also encouraged local law enforcement to go door-to-door looking for New York license plates and advise the car owners of the need to self-quarantine.

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Following suit, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started jawboning New Yorkers:

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Then, fearing that New York travelers were “akin to international travelers bringing the disease from Europe and China”, DeSantis issued an executive order requiring fliers from the New York area be tested on arrival and advised to self-isolate for two weeks upon arrival in the Florida.

President Donald Trump floated a trial balloon that he might institute a ban on New Yorkers’ travel to others states amid the coronavirus.

Encouraged by the ACLU, Gov. Cuomo accused President Trump of “trying to start a civil war”, insinuated that Gov. DeSantis was a rube “playing to his rural constituency” and threatened to sue his Rhode Island neighbor.

clip_image006

President Trump let the matter drop, the Florida restrictions died under the weight of the heavy stream of New Yorkers fleeing to the Miami environs and Rhode Island caved to Cuomo’s threats.

OK, now let’s fast forward to today…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 8, 2020

2,129 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,865 Level
> 3-day trend 2,334 Up Slightly

750 NY+NJ+CT 65% of US Total

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
76,928
Worldometer
37,996  NY+NJ+CT 49% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 8: Key STATES Data

May 8, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 37,996  49% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 62,894 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 409 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 80 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,503  +66

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Do Americans really care about nursing homes?

May 7, 2020

Maybe it’s time for a national gut-check
==============

Earlier this week, there was a heart-wrenching story on TV.

A woman was telling the story of the Massachusetts state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home that had suffered over 80 C-19 fatalities. Her elderly father was one of the casualties.

She had been trying for weeks, to no avail, to speak with her father, or at least get a status report on his condition. Her first contact was when he was being wheeled to the coroner’s van.

clip_image002
click to see details

Of course, the daughter was heart-broken and observed “nobody seemed to care … they’re just old people”.

That struck a chord with me

Of course, people who have loved ones in nursing homes are concerned about their level of care.

At a minimum, they want their loved ones kept safe and comfortable.

But, what do we as a nation really think?

Read the rest of this entry »

May 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 7, 2020

2,524 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,881 trending down
> 3-day trend 2,066 DOWNWARD

1,117 NY+NJ+CT 44% of US Total
NY “found” 1,700 “presumed” cases.

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
74,799
Worldometer
37,246  NY+NJ+CT 50% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 7: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 7, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 37,246  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 61,209 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 398 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 77 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,437  +47

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Except for timing, the new IHME forecast isn’t as shocking as it seems…

May 6, 2020

In mid-April, we pointed out the obvious: the operative projection at the time (60,000 deaths by Aug. 4)  — which was modeled by IHME, touted by Pres. Trump, and head-nodded by Drs. Fauci & Birx — was arithmetically unlikely.

Our simple logic: At the time, the US had already had about 40,000 deaths and was running at a rate of about 2,000 new deaths each day. To stay under 60,000, the average daily death rate would need to drop to 200. That didn’t seem likely.

image

And, we pointed out that IHME routinely reported a wide confidence interval (aka. zone of uncertainty) that ranged up to 140,000.

The new 134.475 projection falls within that confidence level.

Add to the mix some data mumbo-jumbo: There have been some definitional and procedural changes that have boosted the reported number of deaths.

Read the rest of this entry »

May 6: C-19 NATIONAL Data

May 6, 2020

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
=============

2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346  Pennsylvania         

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
72,275
Worldometer
33,573  NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 6: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 6, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

  • NY+NJ+CT = 36,128  50% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • PA +346   NJ +341   IL +176   MA +122
  • Top 12 Total = 59,232 82% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 385 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 74 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,390  +73

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

 C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Maybe coronavirus deaths really are being overcounted…

May 5, 2020

Changed counting rules and an unintended consequence of hospital reimbursements?

==============

Early on, we concluded that coronavirus statistics are generally problematic and that “cutting to the chase, the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

For details, see: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

I argued that if anything is discrete and countable, it’s a death (versus, say, a “confirmed case”).

I acknowledged the problem posed by the difference between “dies with” and “died because of”.

But, I assumed that the counting rules would stay the same and that there wouldn’t be incentives (intentional or unintended) to either over- or under-report.

Silly, me.

A couple of weeks ago, the CDC changed a counting rule.

The original rule: If a patient tests positive for the coronavirus and dies, put COVID on the death certificate.

The change: Doctors should also record “presumed” coronavirus deaths even if they aren’t “confirmed cases”.

In NYC alone, that change boosted the death total by almost 5,000.

That might be the right way to do it, but it did screw up the data series.

So be it.

==============

A second counting issue has to do with economic incentives…

Read the rest of this entry »

NY Antibody Test: FINAL RESULTS

May 5, 2020

Over the weekend, Gov. Cuomo reported final results from the NY antibody test program..

Key Data:

12.3% of the NY state sample tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

Note: The rate in NYC was 19.9%

That extrapolates to 2.4 million New Yorkers.

Given the current number of cases (327,374), 2.1 million (86.3%) of the already infected people were, by definition asymptomatic — having no or mild symptoms.

The implied deaths to infections rate is (1.0%).

image

The implications…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 5: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 5, 2020

Major upward revision of IHME forecast
=============

1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD

442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
69,925
Worldometer
35,451  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

=============
click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

Gottleib: What we need now are rapid tests like the ones for flu or strep…

May 4, 2020

Geez, haven’t we been saying that for weeks?
==============
Dr. Scott Gottleib is a former head of the FDA.

In a WSJ columns, Gottleib observes:

Everyone thought we’d be in a better place after weeks of sheltering in place and bringing the economy to a near standstill.

Mitigation hasn’t failed; social distancing and other measures have slowed the spread.

But the halt hasn’t brought the number of new cases and deaths down as much as expected or stopped the epidemic from expanding.

What’s the key to getting the virus under control?

Read the rest of this entry »

C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES

May 4, 2020

Tests, Confirmed Cases, Deaths
Cumulative Totals and Key Ratios

Data as of May 3, 2020
==============

Now that we seem to be heading down the backside of “the curve” and are starting to re-open the economy … I thought it would be a good time to heatmap where states stand relative to each other along the key variables: number of tests, confirmed cases and deaths … and, to “normalize” the data by adding some key ratios.

For example, here are the 10 states with the highest number of deaths per million … and the 10 with the lowest number of deaths per million:

image

>>  Click for a PDF that displays all of the data <<

The reference guide includes sections sorted by:

  • State name (alphabetical)
  • Tests per million (population)
  • Confirmed cases per million (population)
  • Ratio: confirmed (positive) cases to the total number of tests
  • Total deaths to date
  • Deaths per million
  • Ratio:deaths per confirmed (positive) test

All data is sourced from Worldometer as of May 3 2020.

May 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 4, 2020

1,154 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,884 declining slightly
Caution: Weekend reporting has tended to under-report,
catching-up on Mon & Tues
 

483 NY+NJ+CT 42% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
68,602
Worldometer
35,029  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 4: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 4, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 35,029  51% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 56,662 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 368 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 68 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,281  +30

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Senate may be starting to ask the right questions re: testing.

May 3, 2020

“Why do we have to have symptoms to get tested?”
=============

The Senate (but not the Congress) is scheduled to get back on the job this week.

Roughly half the senators are 65 or older … and, thus, officially in the coronavirus’ “vulnerable” group.

So, it’s understandable that they’re eager that all colleagues have a clean bill of health before returning to the Senate chambers.

clip_image002

Here’s the rub…

Read the rest of this entry »

A very weird data point…

May 3, 2020

Below is the current list of the Top 10 HomaFiles posts.

WordPress — the blogging platform that I use — auto-generates the list based on total views since posting and which posts are trending.

Which is the goose among the ducks?

  1. $$$: How much house can you buy for $1,000 per month?
  2. May 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
  3. May 2: C-19 Key STATES Data
  4. May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data
  5. How long do you wait in line to checkout at the supermarket?
  6. How many doctors are there in the U.S.?
  7. Help Wanted: Vice President of Contact Tracing & Testing
  8. How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
  9. About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
  10. State-by-state COVID19 Deaths – Total and Per Capita

Yep, #1, the “How much house?” post.

It’s the all-time leader in cumulative views (by a lot), so it’s a near-permanent topic in the top 10 … but it’s usually buried in the middle of the list.

My hypothesis: The post gets a lot of “over the transom” views from folks who don’t follow the HomaFiles … mostly because the question in the title of the post sorts high on Google searches.

Over time, I’ve noticed that the housing post sorts higher on the list when the housing market heats up (e.g. when there’s a significant cut in mortgage rates). That makes sense.

Maybe the current coronavirus situation (i.e. some spots are particularly hot; everybody spending more time at home) has a lot of folks thinking about moving.

Hmmm.

=============
P.S. You can click on the links above if you’ve missed any of the trending posts.

May 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 3, 2020

1,672 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 4 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,883 declining slightly 

600 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US Total            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
67,448
Worldometer
36,526  NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 3: Key STATS Data

May 3, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • GA  out of Top 12; replaced by IN
  • NY+NJ+CT = 34,546  52% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 55,722 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 363 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 66 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,251  +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

May 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 2, 2020

1,905 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 3 consecutive days
> 7-day trend @ ~1,937 declining slightly 

681 NY+NJ+CT 35% of US            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
65,776
Worldometer
33,946  NY+NJ+CT 52% of US

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============
Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

May 2: C-19 Key STATES Data

May 2, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • GA drops out of Top 12; replaced by IN
  • NY+NJ+CT = 33,946  52% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 54,398 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 354 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 65 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,192  +52

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Help Wanted: Vice President of Contact Tracing & Testing

May 1, 2020

Warning: Read this before you apply for the job.
=============

Contact tracing & testing is front and center as a fundamental component of the Coronavirus Task Force’s plan to go forward.

Dr. Fauci has said (over & over again) that the process worked fine 30 years ago when he was fighting AIDs … and the media says that the test & trace model has been South Korea’s secret sauce fighting the coronavirus.

The essence of the process: Do diagnostic surveillance testing to ID people currently infected with the coronavirus, then trace back to ID the people with whom they’ve been in contact … then notify those people and test them … if they test positive, repeat the process … then again and again.

Sounds easy enough, doesn’t it?

clip_image001

But, it might not be as easy as it sounds.

Let’s run some numbers…

Read the rest of this entry »

May 1: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

May 1, 2020

2,236 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend is level @ ~2,000

853 NY+NJ+CT 38% of US            

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
63,871
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,433 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

So, how far & fast does a virus spread?

April 30, 2020

Here’s a crash course on the subject.
=============

In a press conference last week, Gov. Cuomo started talking about the “virus reproduction rate” and, channeling Germany’s Chancellor Merkel, declared that NY can’t be reopened until it is under control. WSJ

Sounds reasonable, right?

Yeah, but what the heck is he talking about?

clip_image001

Fasten your seat belts and let’s do some fun math today…

Read the rest of this entry »

April 30: Key NATIONAL Data

April 30, 2020

2,369 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend is level @ ~2,000

737 NY+NJ+CT 31% of US & dropping             

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
61,635
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
72,860 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 1,213 on 4/29 

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Click to see the video that YouTube blocked:
The contrarian California docs who are challenging the scientific consensus.

April 30: Key STATES Data

April 30, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 32,412  53% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 51,234 83% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 325 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 60 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,078  +62

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Still more about the NY antibody test results…

April 29, 2020

What about the 3% of New Yorkers floating around while infected but asymptomatic?
==============

In a prior post, we squeezed the NY antibody test results pretty hard and estimated that about 600,000 New Yorkers are walking around at any one time infected with the coronavirus but exhibiting no or very mild symptoms. That means that about 3% of NY’s population are asymptomatic “hidden carriers” who may be unknowingly spreading the disease.

To understand their significance …

Most infectious disease epidemiology models are built on the “SEIR” construct: how many people are susceptible to a virus … of them, how many are likely to get exposed to it … of them, how many are likely become infected … and of them, how many are likely to recover, perhaps with some degree of immunity. The modelers then calibrate a virus’s behavior, estimating how long it takes people to move from susceptible to exposed to infected to final resolution (recovery or death).

clip_image001

My former strategy students should recognize the SEIR construct as a basic hierarchy-of-effects model, similar in design to, say, the classic marketing awareness – trial – repurchase model.

And, the spread effects are a classic Bass Diffusion Model application with infected people playing the role of “innovators” and susceptible people playing the role of “imitators”.

Let’s dive a little deeper…

Read the rest of this entry »

April 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

April 29, 2020

2,463 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Big increase from prior day
(likely under-reporting in prior 2 days)

> 7-day trend is level

996 in NY+NJ+CT 39% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
59,256
Worldometer

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
74,073 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/28
According to IHME: upped b/c “presumed deaths” added by CDC in mid-stream; long NY plateau; states opening before Aug.4

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 29: Key STATES Data

April 29, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 31,675  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 49,466 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 313 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 57 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 1,016  +71

State-by-State Data – Top 12

image

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Uh-oh: With C-19 bearing down on Maryland, our area hospital furloughs 1,000.

April 28, 2020

Victim of the moratorium on elective surgery.
==============

Talk about timing…

On Sunday, I broached a sensitive topic with my wife: Which hospital should we go to if we catch the coronavirus?

We’re heavily biased towards teaching hospitals, and the docs at Georgetown Hospital were amazing during Kathy’s grueling bout with breast cancer.

But, we concluded that Georgetown – a metroplex hospital — would probably be overrun with cases.

So, we started leaning towards our large, modern local option: Anne Arundel Medical Center

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Then, on Monday, the news hit

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According to the Annapolis Capital Gazette

“Anne Arundel Medical Center has furloughed 1,000 employees.”

Say, what?

In accordance with federal guidelines, the Annapolis hospital canceled all elective surgeries and “ambulatory service” … which are the economic backbones of the hospital.

But, up to now, the C-19 patient load has been very light.

Bottom line: the hospital has been patient and revenue light for a month … facilities are underutilized … and the hospital is bleeding red ink.

So, there was no choice but to lay-off medical staff … they became victims of the coronavirus!

Nonetheless, the hospital says not to worry:

These furloughs do not impact our commitment or ability to safely supply and equip our hospitals to combat COVID-19,

We have trained and redeployed hundreds of staff to support the expected COVID-19 surges in the state of Maryland.

Apparently, AAMC’s predicament is not unique.

The guidelines were obviously developed with the C-19 hot spots’ hospitals in mind … and, the one-size-fits-all rules made other hospitals collateral damage.

Sad, but true.

The contrarian California docs who are challenging the scientific consensus.

April 28, 2020

YouTube blocked the video, but …   we’ve got it here!
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Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massih are ER physicians with 40 years of hands-on experience with viruses and respiratory infections.

They’ve been digging deep into the coronavirus, stress-testing the consensus science and the public policy that’s derived from it.

Their approach:  analysis based on science, logic and “the actual facts of the case, not predictive models”.

Their general findings aren’t particularly controversial: “COVID-19 came here earlier than previously believed, is more ubiquitous and, ultimately for the general population, is less deadly than originally thought.”

So, why are they getting blocked?

Read the rest of this entry »

April 28: C-119 Key NATIONAL Data

April 28, 2020

1,391 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day moving average 2,041
> 7-day trend is downward

541 in NY+NJ+CT 39% of US              

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See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
56,803
Worldometer
56,253  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
74,073 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/28

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click for Key STATES Data
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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 28: C-19 Key STATES Data

April 28, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 30,650  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 47,475 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 301 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 54 Deaths/Million
  • GA +70  … likely under-reporting
    in prior 2 days
  • Maryland 945  +35

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

NY Antibody Test < UPDATE>

April 27, 2020

Phase 2 Results
===========

Gov. Cuomo reported Phase 2 results today.

Bottom line: Results are virtually identical to the Phase 1 results.

14.9% of the sample tested positive for coronavirus antibodies …  that’s up slightly from the Phase 1 results.

That projects up to 2.80 million New Yorkers.

Given the current number of cases (293,381), 2.6 million (89.8%) of the already infected people were, by definition asymptomatic — having no or mild symptoms.

The deaths to infections rate (.8%) was the same in both phases.

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Trump to scale back press conferences … whew!

April 27, 2020

Has he been reading the HomaFiles?
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Last week, we (and a zillion other observers) advised the President to dial back on his participation in the daily Task Force press conferences … and, rather, maintain his visibility by holding his own occasional “hot topic” news conferences.

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Looks like he’s taking the advice.

A couple of things appear to be motivating the welcomed relief….

Read the rest of this entry »

Dr. Birx scolds the press and millennials …

April 27, 2020

“Headlines are irresponsible … and most people don’t read the full story”.
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The poor media.

For weeks, they’d been fawning over Drs. Fauci and Birx for their Trump-thumping truth-telling.

That caricature started to unravel when Birx admited that “I didn’t see this thing coming” … then Fauci laid blame for the testing “failings” on the scientists … and then, both Fauci and Birx testified that Trump listens to them and has based big decisions (e.g. the lockdown) on their data and recommendations.

That was bad, but things got even worse in weekend interviews when Tapper, et. al., tried to get Birx to throw Trump under the bus for telling American idiots to drink Clorox and Lysol.

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Birx didn’t take the bait, instead responding:

Well, I think it bothers me that this is still in the news cycle.

I think I have answered that question.

I think I made it very clear in how I interpreted that …  and so has Dr. [Anthony] Fauci and everyone associated with the task force.

I think I have made it clear that this was a musing … a “dialogue” between President Trump and scientists. 

I think the president made it clear that physicians had to study this {sunlight and disinfectants].

Sources:    Axios   RCP   Politico

And, she went in for the kill …

Read the rest of this entry »

April 27: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

April 27, 2020

1,147 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Best day in nearly a month
> 5-day trend is downward

>Note: Weekend reporting has tended to under-record the number of weekend deaths, carrying some over to Monday & Tuesday

504 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
55,412 
Worldometer
54,841  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============
click for Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 27: Key STATES Data

April 27, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 30,137  54% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 46,454 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 294 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 52 Deaths/Million
  • GA under 10 new deaths for 2nd day
  • Maryland 910  +35

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

More about NY’s antibody test results…

April 26, 2020

So what about the 14% who tested positive for antibodies?
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Let’s start by flashing back to what we said before the test results came in:

Estimates from other earlier-infected countries indicate that only 15% of people infected by the coronavirus experience severe symptoms.

So, given that NY has had about 250,000 confirmed cases (which required severe symptoms), we would expect that the total number of people already infected in New York is 1.67 million (250,000 confirmed cases divided by 15%) … which is 8.6% of the NY population (1.67 divided by 19.5).

OK, the first wave of testing found that 14% of sampled New Yorkers tested positive for coronavirus antibodies … indicating that they had been infected.

That projects up to about 2.7 million people (14% times 19.4 million population).

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For details, see: NY antibody test results

So, is 14% testing positive for antibodies good news or bad news?

Read the rest of this entry »

April 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL Chart

April 26, 2020

2,039 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 5-day trend is downward.
> 7-day average 2,177

961 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
54,256 
Worldometer
53,934  
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

=============
click for  Key STATES Data
=============

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 26: C-19 Key STATES Data

April 26, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 29,633  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 45,541 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 289 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 51 Deaths/Million
  • FL & GA under 10 new deaths 
  • Maryland 875  +77

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

How many social contacts are people having during stay-at-home?

April 25, 2020

And, how risky is it to have contact with people outside of your household?
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In a previous post, we reported a Gallup survey that indicated at least.2/3s of Americans were making a reasonably serious attempt to isolate themselves during the stay-at-home.

A new Gallup survey reports that 74% are isolating themselves “completely” or “mostly”.

That’s pretty good compliance.

And, Gallup goes a step further in the current study to calibrate what “completely” or “mostly” mean by asking respondents how many people they came in contact with — not counting fellow household members — during the past 24 hours.

Note: The forecast models generally assume that social distancing practices, including stay-at-home, reduce contacts by about 40% … 25% for work contacts and 75% for general social contacts.

The conclusion: Adults practicing social distancing generate at least 90% fewer contacts per day than those who are making little effort to social distance.

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On average, survey respondents had 9.9 contacts in the past 24 hours.

Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers…

Read the rest of this entry »

April 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Chart

April 25, 2020

1,974 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Down from prior 3 days
> 7-day average 2,149

744 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

image

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
52,217 
Worldometer
51,949   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 25: C-19 Key STATES Chart

April 25, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 28,672  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 43,841 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 278 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 49 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 798  +50

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Flashback: “The Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell.

April 24, 2020

The forces that trigger epidemics.
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Malcom Gladwell, a pop-culture observer and author, hit it big 2 decades ago with his book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference.

Primarily aimed at marketers, this best-seller provides a construct for understanding why some products and ideas languish and never gain traction … while others take off and rise quickly to broadscale acceptance.

Much of Gladwell’s thinking is derived from his study of contagions and epidemics … which makes it relevant today as we try to understand the coronavirus pandemic.

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Gladwell suggests that there are 3 key elements that need be present for an epidemic to reach a “tipping point” and takeoff: (1) Content – the infectious agent, (2) Carriers – the individuals who transmit the infection, and (3) Context – the environment in which the infectious agent  operates.

Let’s drill down on each of those…

Read the rest of this entry »