July 11: C-19 DATA DASHBOARD

July 11, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
136,671 Worldometer
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849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653

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RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average      42,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

===============

Confirmed Cases

> 71787 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    55,597
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

Should you send your kids back to school this fall?

July 10, 2020

It’s hard to follow “the science” when it’s inconclusive.
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It appears that most school systems are on a path to open their schools either fully or partially (e.g. rotating students every other day or every other week) … and, to mitigate the risks by capacity limiting busses, socially distancing students in classrooms, wearing masks, etc.

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In a couple of weeks, many parents will be forced to make a very big decision: Do they send their K-12 children back to school or not?

Classical public health thinking would say to focus on four questions:

1. Are kids susceptible to the coronavirus?

2. If yes, will mitigation actions sufficiently reduce the risk?

3. Are infected kids vulnerable to severe outcomes?

4. Do infected kids transmit the virus to others?

Unfortunately, “the science and the data” don’t provide much guidance…

=============

During this week’s White House briefing on school reopening…

Sally Goza – President of the American Academy of Pediatrics said:

Children are less likely to become infected and they are less likely to spread infection.

But, White House health advisor Dr. Deborah Birx countered that there’s not enough data to arrive at that conclusion:

The U.S. data is incomplete, because the country has not been testing enough children to conclude how widespread the virus is among people younger than 18 and whether they are spreading the virus to others.

If you look across all of the tests that we’ve done, and when we have the age, the portion that has been the lowest tested portion is the under-10-year-olds.

Our data is skewed to people with symptoms, and then skewed to adults over 18.”

Bottom line: “The science” doesn’t know whether kids are susceptible to the coronavirus or not.

The mitigation actions are likely to reduce contagions risks, but it’s unrealistic to expect that they will eliminate the risks.

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Perhaps the best news so far is that there have been practically no coronavirus deaths among children.

A lot of people are hanging their hats on the apparently low fatality rate as an indicator that severe outcomes are unlikely.

But, keep in mind that kids have been sheltered-in-place since schools closed in the spring, so they have been minimally exposed to the virus.

Some health “experts” warn that’s a double-edged sword since kids haven’t had a chance to develop immunities that counter the coronavirus.

So, when schools open, the proverbial dam may break.

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That gets us back to whether or not infected kids are likely to transmit the virus to others.

This is, in my opinion, the pivotal decision factor.

Again, the evidence is, at best, equivocal.

“While some scientists fear schools could act as accelerators for the pandemic, no country where schools have reopened has so far reported a sharp increase in infections.” WSJ

That said, I side with Dr. Birx that “there’s not enough data to conclude whether kids are spreading the virus to others.”

So, I’d apply a variant of Pascal’s Wager to the transmission question.

See HITS: Pascal’s Wager … perhaps, we should be more righteous.

That is, assume that kids are susceptible to the virus, that mitigation actions will reduce but not eliminate contagion, and that infected kids do transmit the virus.

Then, the critical question is:

Are there vulnerable people potentially exposed to infected kids?

If there are vulnerable caretakers at home (e.g. are elderly or suffer co-mobidity factors) … or anyone with compromised or underdeveloped immune systems (e.g. chemo patients or newborns) … then Pascal’s Wager kicks in.

In those cases, the risks of going back to school increase substantially, maybe reversing the decision calculus.

It may be less about whether the kids will suffer bad outcomes … and more about who the kids might infect — and what the consequences will be on them.

Hmmm…

July 10: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 10, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
135,822 Worldometer
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960 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621

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image
RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 44,000 Current
> 7-day average      40,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

===============

Confirmed Cases

> 61,067 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    53,186
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

Here’s how schools should be thinking about fall classes…

July 9, 2020

In-person? Online? Hybrid? … What to do?
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My view: Educators (especially at the college level) are making a fundamental mistake when trying to structure their curriculums for the fall.

They’re thinking about the problem in the wrong way.

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Now, most schools are simply trying to maintain past schedules and coax all courses online, essentially emulating what’s currently being done in the classroom.

Rather, they should strategize around  two fundamental questions:

1. Which courses require classroom presence?

2. Which courses are most suitable for online delivery?

When those questions are answered, load the fall schedule with the most online-suitable courses … and defer the classroom-dependent courses until the virus is behind us (hopefully when the calendar flips to 2021)

=============

So, which courses are classroom-dependent and which are online-suitable?

Read the rest of this entry »

July 9: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 9, 2020

Cumulative Deaths 
134,862 Worldometer
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892 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 582

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image
RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 43,000 Current
> 7-day average      40,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

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Confirmed Cases

> 64,848 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    82,896
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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RonaViz

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RonaViz

Finally, a Covid testing plan that makes sense to me…

July 8, 2020

Tip of the hat to Georgetown on this one.
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Last week, I did some reading re: the Herculean challenges facing colleges as they contemplate when and how to re-open.

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In a nutshell, residence colleges face three major challenges:

  1. Staying afloat financially
  2. Delivering a valuable education
  3. Keeping their campuses healthy

One aspect of healthy campuses is instituting a comprehensive Covid testing program.

Many schools are rationalizing  away the need for testing, arguing that tests aren’t sufficiently accurate and that they cost too much to administer. Source

That’s not the approach that Georgetown is taking…

Read the rest of this entry »

July 8: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 8, 2020

Expanded Data Set:
Cases > Hospitalizations > Deaths

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Cumulative Deaths 
133,972 Worldometer
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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 552

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image
RonaViz

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Currently Hospitalized

> 41,575 Current
> 7-day average      38,000
> April 22 peak        59,000
> June 21 low point  28,000

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RonaViz

===============

Confirmed Cases

> 55,442 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    50,156
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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WSJ

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RonaViz


HCQ: The drug that won’t die…

July 7, 2020

New peer-reviewed study finds hydroxychloroquine’s life-saving benefits.
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The results of a large-scale analysis, conducted by the prestigious Henry Ford Health System, was published last week in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The study examined 2,541 patients who had been hospitalized in six Henry Ford hospitals between March 10 and May 2, 2020.

More than 90% of the patients receiving hydroxychloroquine were treated with the drug within 48 hours of admission to the hospital.

The study’s fundamental finding:

26.4% of patients who did not receive hydroxychloroquine died.

But among those who received hydroxychloroquine, fewer than half that number — 13% — died.

The difference in mortality is, by all measures, statistically significant.

How can that be?

Read the rest of this entry »

July 7: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 7, 2020

414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517

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States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,979 Worldometer
===============

Confirmed Cases

> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    48,172
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

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WSJ

Things to worry about…

July 6, 2020

Channeled from the Visual Capitalist

Just in case your 4th of July weekend was too celebratory, welcome back to reality.

The World Economic Forum surveyed 347 risk analysts on how they rank the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.

In the survey, a “risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition with the potential for significant negative impacts on various countries and industries.

These were the 10 risks considered most likely to occur:

  • 7 of the 10 most likely risks are economic
  • #5 is restriction of cross-border movement of people and goods
  • #9 is the risk of cyberattacks & data fraud
  • #10 is another coronavirus or other disease outbreak

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The risk analysts were also asked which of these risks they considered to be of the greatest concern for the world.

Here’s what they said…

Read the rest of this entry »

July 6: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 6, 2020

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591

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States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,571 Worldometer
===============

Confirmed Cases

> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average    46,675
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414

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WSJ

Happy 4th of July !

July 4, 2020

Take a moment to remember how lucky we are …

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July 4: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

July 4, 2020

688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
132,101 Worldometer

Confirmed Cases

> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409 



Remember when Trump advised to to use scarves during mask shortage?

July 3, 2020

Of course, he was eviscerated by the med-science community and the mainstream media
=============

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Flashback to late March when community spread of the coronavirus was ramping up.

The WHO, the CDC and US Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks … saying that they were, at best minimally protective, could exasperate the problem if worn incorrectly and would distract people from handwashing and social distancing.

The real reason: masks were in short supply and the supply chain was impaired by Chinese hoarding and off-shored manufacturing.

In a Task Force press conference, Trump cut to the chase … said the real reason was the need to supply hospital workers with masks first … and he casually opined that, in the short-run, folks could stop-gap by using scarves or other face coverings as a make-shift protective shield.

click to view video (90 sec.)
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Of course, Trump said it — and  he’s an MSM-certified idiot, so…

Read the rest of this entry »

July 3: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 3, 2020

> 56,939 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,276 

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688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643

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Cumulative Deaths 
131,477 Worldometer

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 22 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in MA, LA & AZ

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Since 2010, Fed funds for hospital preparedness cut 40%

July 2, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has again brought into sharp focus the vulnerabilities at hospitals across the nation: constrained surge capacity, shortfalls in critical supplies and equipment, shortages in trained medical personnel.

=============

According to the Washington Post

Most hospitals — nonprofit, public and for-profit — operate on thin financial margins and have little to no budget for contingency preparations.

Nearly all of the roughly 400 hospital administrators surveyed said they had too many obligations to prepare for emerging infectious diseases in the absence of a current threat.

While many health-care officials say they are better prepared for major emergencies now than before the 2001 terrorist attacks, those efforts have been undermined by steady funding cuts

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Let’s get specific and risk touching a 3rd-rail….

Read the rest of this entry »

Hypocrisy on parade in Seattle…

July 2, 2020

This tweet says it all …

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July 2: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 2, 2020

> 44,766 New Cases
> 7-day average 41118 

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WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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680 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628

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Cumulative Deaths 
130,789 Worldometer


IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in AZ and SC

click to enlarge table
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Yipes: Less than 1/2 of likely voters say Biden doesn’t suffer dementia.

July 1, 2020

More specifically, a recent Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely voters found:

38% think Biden is suffering dementia … the breakdown: 66% of GOP, 30% of Independents, 20% of Dems

48% do not think Biden is  suffering dementia …  apparently, they think either (1) he’s sharp as a tack, or (2) he’s just “Joe being Joe”, or (3) there’s no dementia, he just started long ago at a low base

14% said they didn’t know or were unsure …  or were, themselves hopelessly confused.

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Drilling down on the survey’s results….

Read the rest of this entry »

July 1: Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

July 1, 2020

> 41,556 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,750 

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WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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751 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 646
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
130,109 Worldometer
190,187 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in NJ, AZ and LA

click to enlarge table
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Shocker: Virus spreads on crowded buses and subways…

June 30, 2020

So, how are urban workers going to get to work?
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Remember when NYC Mayor de Blasio hopped on the subway to reassure people that they need not worry about catching the coronavirus by riding the trains? Source

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Well, a couple of recently published studies debunk de Blasio’s “not to worry” … and raises some very thorny issues…

Read the rest of this entry »

June 30: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 30, 2020

> 38,845 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,192 

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WSJ

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

==============

351 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 581
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,788 Worldometer
183,407 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29

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Key States Data

> 9 states reporting more than 10 new deaths 

> Note high per capita DNDs in RI, MS and MA

click to enlarge table
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Remember when the med-science community told young adults that the virus wouldn’t hurt them?

June 29, 2020

Apparently, that’s a bell that can’t be unrung … and young “invincibles” are driving current coronavirus case spikes
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There’s no denying that that confirmed Covid cases have bumped back up to prior peak levels … about 30.000 new cases per day.

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Digging a little deeper…

New cases have dropped from sky-high levels in the Northeast … and held relatively constant in the Midwest.

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But, cases have exploded in the West and the South

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Source: WSJ

One obvious point: hot weather doesn’t seem to kill off the virus.

And, there is some chatter that virus-spreading air conditioning systems may be spreading the virus (think: Legionnaires disease).

But, most determining,, there has been a huge shift in the demographic profile of the cases which suggests that young invincibles aren’t so invincible after all…

Read the rest of this entry »

June 29: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 29, 2020

299 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 583
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,437 Worldometer
183,808 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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None of the Bottom 39 states reported 25 or more New Deaths

June 28: Key NATIONAL Data

June 28, 2020

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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WSJ

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498 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 578
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
128,138 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 183,599 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

June 27: Key NATIONAL Data

June 27, 2020

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
==============

Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

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WSJ

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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

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WSJ     See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

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Cumulative Deaths 
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

Pew: Plurality of protesters are young white Democrats…

June 26, 2020

Some interesting survey results from Pew Research:

> 40% of recent protesters are White; only 17% of  are Black; Hispanics outnumber Blacks.

> 80% are under 50; of that group, the majority  are under 30.

> Roughly 80% are Democrats.

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Source: Pew

Digging a little deeper into the numbers…

Read the rest of this entry »

June 26: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 26, 2020

585 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 597
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,866 Worldometer
183,358 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47)  TX (41)  AZ (27)

Shocker: NYC contact tracing program off to a “slow start”

June 25, 2020

Infected people are hard to locate and reluctant to give up their contact info.
============

According to the NY Times…

Since June 1, NY has been ramping up its Covid test & trace program.

About 50,000 people are being tested each day.

  • Note: Scant info is reported on who is being tested … People with symptoms? Curious people without symptoms? Random samples?

The goal is to contact everybody who tests positive … and then identify and contact everybody who has recently come in close contact (within 6 feet for more than 15 minutes) … and urge the contacts to get tested and self-quarantine.

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Sounds easy enough, right?

So, what’s the problem?

Read the rest of this entry »

June 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 25, 2020

805 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 620
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
124,281 Worldometer
185,661 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (79)  TX (42)  AL (27)

Cases up, deaths down … huh?

June 24, 2020

Let’s start with the data …

The 7-day average of Covid cases is up 30% in past week

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The 7-day average of deaths is down 10% in past week.

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How can this be?

Read the rest of this entry »

June 24: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 24, 2020

866 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
123,476 Worldometer
185,533 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
Delaware (68)  AZ (42)  GA (46)  TX(33)

Circa 1985: Faith Popcorn’s “Future Trends” …

June 23, 2020

Cocooning, Icon Toppling, Futuretense
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When I taught Basic Marketing, I covered “marketing information” … including the usual material on marketing research and analysis.

For fun (and relevance), I usually included some stuff on trend spotting — topics like demographic changes and evolving consumer hot buttons and preferences.

Always a crowd-pleaser was work done by a “pop marketing futurist” who named herself Faith Popcorn.

In a couple of best-selling books (The Popcorn Report, Clicking), Popcorn zeroed in on the major trends that she thought marketers needed to consider.

At the time, Popcorn was sometimes characterized as:

“An always on-duty watchperson of cultural change … who makes a living selling stardust to corporate types”

Here’s the core of the “stardust” that Popcorn was (and is) peddling:

click to enlarge
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Keep in mind that most of the projections were developed in the mid-1980’s … and note that all have relevance now — 35 years later in 2020.

Let’s drill down on a couple of them…

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Cocooning

In her 1991 book, The Popcorn Report, Popcorn describes cocooning as:

The impulse to go inside when it just gets too tough and scary outside.

To pull a shell of safety around yourself, so you’re not at the mercy of a mean, unpredictable world.

A world offering harassments and assaults that run the gamut from rude waiters and noise pollution to crack-crime, recession and AIDS.

Cocooning is about insulation and avoidance, peace and protection, coziness and control-a sort of hyper-nesting.

At the time, Popcorn saw the intersection of an increasingly hostile world — mild by today’s standard — and advancing technology that made staying-at-home more entertaining and provided windows into the outside world.

Fast forward to today’s Covid-induced sheltering-in-place … the epitome of “super nesting”.

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Idol Toppling

Stated simply: A growing mass of skeptics and idealists question and reject all pillars or society … government, corporations, religions.

image

Need I say more?

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Futuretense

Anxiety-ridden by simultaneous social, economic, political and ethical chaos, people find themselves beyond their ability to cope today or imagine tomorrow.

Change is never easy, and FutureTense captures the deep consumer unrest related to what we call FOF (Fear of the Future).

In the early 90s, anxiety began growing, and people were increasingly unsure of how to navigate the choppy waters ahead.

The foundations of their world – assuming they’d own their own home, that America was composed primarily of white heterosexuals, that we were moving towards world peace, that the planet was healthy and that our longevity would keep increasing – were rocked.

The explosive growth of the Internet and mobile devices were a huge boon, but unsettling for some – and brought a sense of Data Danger, a new wave of worries about hacking, malware, and a host of other ills.

The economic downturn that hit in 2007-8 only served to exacerbate consumer fears and anxiety.

Of course, the coronavirus has has put Futuretense into overdrive…

=============

I think that Popcorn has been vindicated of the “stardust” charge.

Her trend-spots have been both on target and enduring.

As they say: Plus ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose.

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P.S. Faith is still popping … her Trends Blog is worth browsing.

Re-opening schools may not be as easy as it sounds.

June 22, 2020

Complying with CDC guidelines may be cost prohibitive and logistically impossible.
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One of my biggest coronavirus concerns has been the school-shut-down impact on kids … both socially and educationally.

Since children are negligibly hurt by the virus (i.e. lower infection vulnerability, minor or no symptoms when infected, low transmission-forward rate),  I’ve been a advocate for re-opening schools ASAP.

I’ve been implicitly assuming that “cleaning” the schools’ environment would be no big deal … just move the desks further apart and double down on nighttime deep-cleaning.

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I’ve been glossing over the economics and the logistics…

Read the rest of this entry »

June 22: C-19 Key NATIONAL Data

June 22, 2020

263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
122,246 Worldometer
186,258 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

June 20: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 20, 2020

704 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
121,392 Worldometer
189,987 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (41)  GA (31)  TX (27)  IN (25)

WSJ: Not to worry, hospitals have capacity.

June 19, 2020

Today, the  WSJ concedes that  cases have spiked in some areas but advises us to…

Focus on the burden on hospitals, not on models’ oft-mistaken forecasts .

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Specifically, the WSJ points out that — even in currently reported hot spots — hospitals have substantial unused capacity (beds) to cope with spikes …and, medical staffs are better prepared to treat patients more efficiently and more effectively.

Here are the numbers…

Read the rest of this entry »

June 19: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 19, 2020

747 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 666
> Peaked on April 21

image

============

Cumulative Deaths 
120,688 Worldometer
193,231 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

=============

Key States Data

click to enlarge table
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Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
NC (54)  TX (37)  AZ (32)  GA (30)

The “summer slide” meets the coronavirus…

June 18, 2020

In his 2008 bestseller Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion of an educational “summer slide”.

Referencing a tracking study of Baltimore City Public School students, Gladwell highlighted evidence that students’ standardized test scores in the fall were generally lower than their scores in the prior spring.

His observation: “Between school years, students’ accumulated learning is diminished”.

In other words, there is a statistically significant “forget factor” if learning isn’t reinforced and edged forward with summer enrichment activities (think: summer school, educational camps, field trips, parental tutoring).

The summer slide is most pronounced for poor students who lack summer enrichment opportunities … and for all students in math. 

The black line below illustrates the math score drop-off for typical 3rd, 4th and 5th graders. On average, the typical summer slide in math skills is about 2%.  That is, students are 2% less proficient in math after their summer vacations.

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Source: WSJ

To make matters worse, note the red line on the chart … it illustrates the projected drop-off due to this year’s virus-induced school closings.

It’s estimated that students will be about 5% less proficient in math than they were when the schools closed … the combined effect of lesser learning during the schools’ shut-down period and an extended summer slide (with many schools declaring no mas in early June) .

More specifically…

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June 18: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 18, 2020

829 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 687
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
119,941 Worldometer
193,481 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46) TX (43)  IN (28)

WSJ: The data are in …

June 17, 2020

Compelling for “group distancing”, not so much for shelter-in-place
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According to a WSJ op-ed…

Four new analyses of actual results show how the initial projections overestimated the value of lockdowns.

Fortunately, economists no longer have to rely on inherently flawed projections. They can use real data.

In what might turn out to be the best paper on the economics of Covid-19, a team of economists from the University of California, Berkeley carefully evaluated empirical data on social distancing, shelter-in-place orders, and lives saved.

And, here’s what the real data is saying…

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June 17: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 17, 2020

849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 711
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
119,132 Worldometer
195,935 by Oct 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
759 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
TX (46) GA (35) NC (29) AZ (25)

June 16: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 16, 2020

430 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
> Peaked on April 21

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Cumulative Deaths 
118,283 Worldometer
199,597 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
201,129 by Oct 1 UP 12,239 on June 15
760 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

39 states with 25 or more New Deaths: GA (43)

Covid death risk: Some good news.

June 15, 2020

Today, let’s put Covid death rates in perspective…
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By now it’s clear that people older than 65 are the most vulnerable to the novel coronavirus, and the age penalty is severe for the elderly nursing home patients with underlying health conditions.

image_thumb2
Source: WSJ, CDC

According to the WSJ:

  • About 2/3s of Covid deaths have been over 65
  • The median age of death 80.
  • About 1/4 Covid deaths have been folks over 85.
  • 95% of deaths involved at least 1 chronic condition
  • 60% of deaths had three or more comorbidity factors
  • About 1/2 of all Covid deaths have been nursing home patients

Here’s some good news that puts those numbers in perspective…

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June 15: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 15, 2020

327 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
117,863 Worldometer
208,320 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

No Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths

June 14: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 14, 2020

707 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 879
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
117,526 Worldometer
215,079 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
472 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
FL moved up from #11 to #10 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
AZ (39) GA (28)

June 13: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 13, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

790 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 949
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
116,819
Worldometer
223,155 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
474 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data
IL moved up to #4 in total deaths

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (47), TN (27), MN (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

WSJ: “NY’s Coronavirus Response Made the Pandemic Worse”

June 12, 2020

We’ve been on this case for awhile.

Today’s WSJ  laid out the case that:

New York leaders’ coronavirus response was marred by missed warning signs and policies that put residents at greater risk and led to unnecessary deaths.

The virus has hit New York harder than any other state, cutting through its densely populated urban neighborhoods and devastating the economy.

New York state’s death toll accounts for 27% of American deaths.

image

Here are the WSJ’s supporting conclusions…

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June 12: C-19 Key NATIONAL & STATES Data

June 12, 2020

Note: IHME has extended its forecast period from Aug 3 to Oct 1. Details below,

899 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 984
> Peaked on April 21

image

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Cumulative Deaths 
116,028
Worldometer
227,205 by Oct 1ug 4 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
169,890 by Oct 1 <= NEW END DATE
476 = Implied Daily New Deaths until Aug 4

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Key States Data

click to enlarge table
image

Bottom 39 states with 25 or more New Deaths:
GA (46), AZ (32), OH (25), TX (25), in (25)

click to see  C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES and Data Recap: The BOTTOM 39

More: Can following “the science” be hazardous to your health?

June 11, 2020

Now, the WHO does a u-turn on masks.
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Longstanding,  the “gold standard” WHO advised  against wearing masks, saying:

There isn’t enough medical evidence to support members of the public wearing a mask, unless they were sick or around people with the coronavirus. WebMD

Even the CDC bailed on this one earlier, so you had to see it coming…

image

Here’s the skinny…

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