As Harry Reid would say: “The word is out that Trump paid no taxes.”

September 28, 2020

… under the Obama-Biden tax structure. that is.
=============

It’s deja vu all over…

Flashback to 2012: Sen. Harry Reid took to the well to shock the nation with the revelation that “the word is out” that Mitt Romney hadn’t paid taxes in 10 years.

click to view 1-minute video
image

PolitiFact rated Reid’s allegation “Pants on Fire.”

Reid’s rejoinder:

“Well, they can call it whatever they want. Romney didn’t win, did he?” Source

Well, if it worked once, why not try it again?

Cue the NY Times:

image

Shocker, right?

Trump used the Obama-Biden tax code to his advantage.

The word is out…

Why do the Dems need any time to vet Amy Coney Barrett?

September 28, 2020

They’re all going to vote “no” any way.
=============

I like that some Dems are now saying that they won’t meet privately with Judge Barrett … and some are saying that they won’t attend the hearings.

That makes complete sense to me … and should speed the process.

image

Barrett went through a full Senatorial vetting in 2017 when nominated for an Appeals Court position.

An updated FBI report will be done in short order.

By all accounts, she’s likely to be deemed “clean as a whistle”.

Barrett will still present as a white Catholic mother of 7 children — 2 of whom are adopted Haitians; 1 of whom is special needs.

Her rulings will still imply a strong Constitutional leaning … with no history of  “legislating from the bench”.

Most important, no Dems have expressed any inclination to vote yes on her confirmation vote.

Do any Dems want more vetting time so that they can be flipped to vote “yes”.

I’ll bet the under on that one.

Do they expect high school classmates to come out of the shadows and accuse her of being a sexual predator or chainsaw murderer?

Get serious…

Bottom line: I agree with the current betting line … the process will be done before the election.

image

Sept. 28: Election Polls & Odds

September 28, 2020

Biden +9.4 in odds, +7.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 54.3   Trump 44.9   Lead 9.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.8  Trump 42.8   Lead 7.0
Undecided 7.4

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 22  Lead 56

Sept. 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 28, 2020

209,453 Deaths-to-Date

276 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 762    (peak 2.229 April 23)

33,782  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,566

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 27: Election Odds & Polls

September 27, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.1   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2_thumb

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 578  Trump 46  Lead 11

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.9  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.9
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 27, 2020

209,119 Deaths-to-Date

679 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 756    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,894  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,492

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Uh-oh: Biden calls troops “stupid bastards”…

September 26, 2020

Not anonymous sources … on tape!
================

You probably remember the Atlantic article that quoted 4 anonymous sources claiming that Trump called soldiers “losers & suckers”.

29 named sources — including Trump nemesis John Bolton, who was in the room when the slurs are alleged to have been made —  refuted the accusations.

Nonetheless, Biden ran with the story.

In an emotional speech, he said the words made him as mad as he’s ever been …  that they trampled on the memory of  his late son Beau.

Subsequently, Biden has used the discredited Atlantic reporting in TV ads and in many of his speeches.

That may end.

Why?

A video has surfaced of Biden addressing a group of soldiers.

click to view 10 sec snippet … transcript below.
image

The verbatim:

Clap for that, you stupid bastards.

Come on, man.

Man, you all are a dull bunch.

Must be slow here, man.”

Biden’s faithful say he was just making a joke.

Doesn’t look like the soldier in the picture thought the joke was very funny.

Think Biden will use the “losers & suckers” line in Tuesday’s debate?

I’m betting the under on that one.

=============

P.S. I am betting the over on Twitter and Facebook banning the video as “disinformation”.

Sept. 26: Election Odds & Polls

September 26, 2020

Biden +7.7 in odds, +6.7 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.9   Lead 6.7
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 26: C-19 Daily Dashboard

September 26, 2020

208,281 Deaths-to-Date

761 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 735    (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,807  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,012

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Remember when Biden “dominated” Ryan in VP debate?

September 25, 2020

Consensus is that Trump will roll a cognitively weakened Biden in next week’s debate.

Fearing the worst, Pelosi’s has advised Slow Joe to skip the debates, giving rise to fringe conjecture that Biden won’t post for the debate.

Wildest machination that I’ve heard is that Biden will claim to have tested positive for COVID right before the debate — getting him some shoulda-stayed-home sympathy and a doc’s note for his absence.  All followed by a DeWine-like negative test on Sept. 30.

My view: Biden will show up and, given expectations, Trump has lots of downside … and, Biden has lots of upside.

Flashback to the way Biden shredded Paul Ryan in 2012 …

click for 3-min excerpt
image

Ryan had the IQ edge by about 100 points and brought his clean-as-a-Scout persona.

So, how did Biden handle him?

Read the rest of this entry »

The most incredible COVID statistic…

September 25, 2020

I’ve heard or read this stat several times:

29 large universities including Notre Dame, the University of North Carolina, and Illinois State had reported some 26,000 cases by Sept. 9 yet no hospitalizations.

I used to frequently remind my students that incredible means not credible … and, this stat certainly sounded incredible … so, I largely ignored it.

But, when the statistic was repeated in the WSJ, I decided that it was worth looking into.

Here’s what I found…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 25: Election Odds & Polls

September 25, 2020

Biden +8.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.6   Lead 8.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 25, 2020

207,499 Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 767       (peak 2.229 April 23)

44,000  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,187

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Something doesn’t square in the Louisville case …

September 24, 2020

OK, the cops knocked — even though they had a no knock warrant … and they announced themselves as cops when they entered the apartment. That’s confirmed by a witness.

The boyfriend admits to having fired the first shot, wounding one of the cops.

The 2 cops who entered the apartment returned fire … the wounded cop fired 6 shots … the other officer fired 10 shots … that’s 16 shots.

There are no reports that any of the 16 shots hit the boyfriend (who had fired at the cops).

But, 6 of the the 16 shots hit Ms. Taylor, though she was reported to still be in the bedroom when all of the shots were fired.

The FBI determined that the fatal shot came from one of the 2 cops who entered the apartment.

What am I missing?

First, how did all 16 cop-shots miss the boyfriend-shooter?

Second, how did 6 cop-shots hit Ms. Taylor if she was still in the bedroom?

===============

Maybe some of the cop-shots landed on the boyfriend but that isn’t being reported.

And, maybe Ms. Taylor was in the line of fire, proximate to her shooter-boyfriend … or, her bedroom was in the line of fire and hershooter-ducked to safety.

If the latter is true, it makes sense that Ms. Taylor got hit … especially in the “fog or war” in a darkened apartment.

Side question: Why do these raids have to be done in the middle of the night? That appears to increase the risk for both cops and suspects.

But, if she was still in the bedroom .. and the bedroom was a relatively safe harbor out of the line of fire, how did she get hit with 6 shots?

A 3rd officer — the cop charged with “wanton recklessness” — fired 10 shots from outside the apartment.

The FBI lab concluded that the fatal shot did not come from the 3rd officer.

Did any of the 3rd officer’s shots hit Ms. Taylor?  Or, did they all go into the neighbor’s apartment?

That strikes me as a pivotal question

============

My inclination is to support the police and the Grand Jury’s decision, but I just can’t get all of the pieces to square.

Again, what am I missing?

=================

P.S. Be sure to read the informative reader comment below.

Sept. 24: Election Odds & Polls

September 24, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.3   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9   Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.9  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 24, 2020

206,560 Deaths-to-Date

7,079 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 756       (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,062  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,826

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 23: Election Odds & Polls

September 23, 2020

Biden +8.5 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.8   Trump 45.3   Lead 8.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2

image_thumb5
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.6
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

April 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 23, 2020

205,447 Deaths-to-Date

945 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 754    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,137  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,333

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Biden demonstrates how NOT to wear a mask…

September 22, 2020

For the can’t-make-this-stuff-up file
================

Remember a couple of months ago when the WHO, CDC, NIH (Fauci) and Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks?

At the time, among their arguments were that mask-wearing might give people a false sense of security — so they wouldn’t socially distance from others … that people would wear masks incorrectly — letting them slip down, breaching the protection … and that people would frequently touch their masks — transferring surface droplets to the “kill zone”.

I pooh-poohed that logic … until yesterday when I watched  Joe “National Mask Mandate” Biden give his speech in Manitowac, Wisconsin.

During the speech, Biden literally provided a demonstration on how not to wear a mask … and why their effectiveness may be overstated.

click to view the 30-minute speech
image

Specifically

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 22: Election Odds & Polls

September 22, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 68  Lagoa 33
Confirmed by Nov.3: 75 – 20  Predict It
=============
Presidential Summary
Biden +7.5 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.4   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

image
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 22: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 22, 2020

204,469 Deaths-to-Date

351 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 781    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,781  New Cases
> 7-day average  42,446

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

The questions that I’d ask Bob Woodward…

September 21, 2020

… and any friends who say that Trump should have yelled “FIRE” back in January.
==============

Dana Perino interviewed Bob Woodward last week.

She was politely asking the right sort of questions … maybe, too politely … and not pointed enough.

IMHO, Woodward came off like a crotchety old man who wanted — above all — for Trump to get off his front lawn.

He kept harping on the the Jan. 28 NSA briefing that the coronavirus could be deadly and could be the most serious security threat to the U.S.

Good enough for Woodward, even if the scientists (think: Fauci) weren’t onboard and there was only 1 reported case in the U.S.

Paraphrasing slightly, when Perino pointed that and cited some of Trump’s accomplishments — including the Mideast peace accords — Woodward said, in effect, “I base my judgment of his incompetency on his response to the Jan. 28 NSA brief alone.”

click to view a 3-minute snippet of the interview
image

OK, given Woodward’s sharp focus on the Jan. 28 NSA briefing, these are the specific questions I’d ask him…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 21: Election Odds & Polls

September 21, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 55  Lagoa 41
=============
Presidential Summary
Biden +7.6 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.5   Trump 45.7   Lead 7.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Sept. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 21, 2020

204,118 Deaths-to-Date

294 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 800     (peak 2.229 April 23)

33,265  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,733

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 20: Election Odds & Polls

September 20, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +6.2 in polls             

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 20, 2020

203,824 Deaths-to-Date

657 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 815     (peak 2.229 April 23)

42,533  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,572

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

The election just got messier!

September 19, 2020

To say the least, RBG’s death is disruptive
=============

Here are my takeaways from last night’s chatter:

1. Roes v. Wade is on the ballot again.

Politely stated, the make-up of the SCOTUS will surpass COVID and law & order as the most important issue.  That will rally the evangelicals (for Trump) and the pro-choice crowd (to Biden).

My hunch: The pro choice crowd is already in Biden’s camp.  Evangelicals will go from lukewarm on Trump to “hold your nose” when voting.

=============

2. Trump will certainly go forward with a quick nomination, probably pre-vetted Amy Coney Barrett.

For Trump, it’s  a manhood issue and it puts his legacy is at stake.

The Dems will “Kavanaugh” her for sure.  But doing so, will rally some suburban women back to Trump.

=============

3. Election voting issues will largely be determined by lower courts

Late & questionable mail-in ballots will be this election’s hanging chads that determine who wins.

It’s very unlikely that confirmation can happen before or soon after the election.

So, any issues that make it to the SCOTUS are likely to score a 4-4 tie … with CJ Roberts voting with the liberals.

That means that lower court decisions will stand.

Trump’s lower court-loading may work to his advantage

Venue shopping will key.  Expect the Dems to overload the liberal 9th circuit.

=============

4. Confirmation hangs with Collins & Romney

Romney hates Trump and vote against any nomination … even one that is completely consistent with his few moral principles.

Collins will likely lose her election because she cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.

Losing frees her to vote her conscience and gives her a chance to stick it to the Maine voters who rejected her.

Ironically, Trump may benefit from a Collins’ loss.

=============

This is going to be very interesting….

Sept. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 19, 2020

203,138 Deaths-to-Date

920 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 820     (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,530  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,3891

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Remember when Trump advised us to use scarves during mask shortage?

September 18, 2020

Of course, he was eviscerated by the med-science community and the mainstream media
=============

Flashback to late March when community spread of the coronavirus was ramping up.

The WHO, the CDC and US Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks … saying that they were, at best minimally protective, could exasperate the problem if worn incorrectly and would distract people from handwashing and social distancing.

“The science” was unsettled.  Scientists were unsure how the virus was transmitted. There were published peer-reviewed studies on both sides of the issue.

That said, the  real reason for the science community’s advisories: masks were in short supply and the supply chain was impaired by Chinese hoarding and off-shored manufacturing.

In a Task Force press conference, Trump cut to the chase … said the real reason was the need to supply hospital workers with masks first … and he casually opined that, in the short-run, folks could stop-gap by using scarves or other face coverings as a make-shift protective shield.

click to view video (90 sec.)
image

Of course, Trump said it — and  he’s an MSM-certified idiot, so the media pounced:

image
Of course, there’s more to the story…
Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 18: Election Odds & Polls

September 18, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.8   Lead +7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 23  Lead 53 

Sept. 18: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 18, 2020

202,130 Deaths-to-Date

896 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 848     (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,476  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,376

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Goes Despacito…

September 17, 2020

For the “you can’t make this stuff up” file
================

Hoping to validate his “cool” credentials and  to connect directly with the intimately few attendees  at a Hispanic Heritage Month Event in Kissimmee, FL … here’s the way that Hidin’ Joe Biden opened his speech:

MUST WATCH=> click to view – 39 seconds
image

The song is the sexy-salsa hit “Despacito”.

Besides Biden’s awkwardness, here’s what makes Biden’s song choice such a head-scratcher…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 17: Election Polls & Odds

September 17, 2020

Biden +5.0 in odds, +6.8 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3  Trump 47.3  Lead +5.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb[2]

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.0  Trump 43.1  Lead 5.9
Undecided 7.9
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 17: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 17, 2020

201,266 Deaths-to-Date

1,069 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 869       (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,609  New Cases
> 7-day average  37,814

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

“Confirmed cases” skyrocketed … how many were false positives?

September 16, 2020

One answer to why there wasn’t a commensurate high spike in deaths.
=============

COVID tests yielding “false positive” results have been hitting the news again.

A couple of weeks ago, Ohio governor Mike DeWine tested positive, missed an event with President Trump and was subsequently re-tested (twice) and found to be negative.

See Ohio Gov. DeWine tests negative … after testing positive.

This week, it was reported that several nursing homes have experienced numerous cases of false positives.

False-positive test results are a particularly significant risk in nursing homes, because a resident wrongly believed to have Covid-19 could be placed in an area dedicated to infected patients, potentially exposing an uninfected person to the coronavirus.

And, there is a growing number of reports that re-opened schools are being shut-down when a single student or faculty member tested positive.  Locally, I know of 3 such instances.

Bottom line: false positives are very likely and have significant consequences to patients and institutions.

The IHME estimates that less than 1% of Americans are currently infected.

Given the low prevalence of COVID (i.e. percentage currently infected) … and low but statistically significant testing errors … the likelihood of false positives is very high!

Here’s my logic…

In my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).

Today, we’ll apply Bayesian Inference to the COVID testing situation…

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Sept. 16: Election Odds & Polls

September 16, 2020

Biden +4.4 in odds, +6.8 in polls
Mideast peace agreements signed
Bloomberg: $100 million for Biden

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 51.6  Trump 47.2  Lead +4.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.7  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.8
Undecided 7.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 16: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 16, 2020

200,171 Deaths-to-Date

1,171 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 884       (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,925  New Cases
> 7-day average  36,058

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Details below…

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Flashback: Politifacts’ 2009 “Lie of the Year”

September 15, 2020

“If you like your health care plan, you can keep it … and, your family’s annual healthcare costs will go down by $2,500″
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Joe Biden is outraged that Trump “followed the science” and minimized the likely impact of the coronavirus.

For details, see: Fauci: “He was saying what we were telling him”

Biden: “Lied to the American public. Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.

The first part “lied to the American people” brought back bad memories.

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Remember Obama’s infamous line: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it … and, your family’s annual healthcare costs will go down by $2,500″

Biden oft repeated the line when selling ObamaCare … and, reprised it in the primaries when fending off opponents’ Medicare-for-All promises.

What’s the rub?

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Sept. 15: Election Odds & Polls

September 15, 2020

Biden +5.8 in odds, +7.1 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.5  Trump 46.7  Lead +5.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 45  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9  Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 15: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 15, 2020

199,000 Deaths-to-Date

480 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 781    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,072  New Cases
> 7-day average  36,058

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Details below…

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Did Trump “lie” and “cause” thousands of deaths?

September 14, 2020

Let’s drill down on Woodward’s “bombshell” (and Biden’s new campaign mantra)
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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people … and, that confusion and delay resulted in “thousands of unnecessary deaths”.

The Biden campaign quickly shifted gears from “Build Back Better” to “Trump lied, people died”.

Really?

Bottom line: Save for the dramatic impact of the audio tapes, Woodward’s “bombshell” is old news that has been debunked by the science (and scientists) … and the data.

Specifically, the NY Times ran an  article dated April 11 that detailed practically all of Woodwards’s “scoops” … and subsequently “the science ” — voiced by none other Dr. Anthony Fauci — and “the data” provided context, explanations and refutations.

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Let’s start by flashing back to our April 13 post that analyzed the Times’ story…

Note: Trust me, the analysis is as relevant today as it was in April.  It’s long, but IMHO, well worth the reading time. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 14: Election Odds & Polls

September 14, 2020

Biden +6.5 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.8  Trump 46.3  Lead +6.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 44  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 76  Trump 24  Lead 52 

Sept. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 14, 2020

198,520 Deaths-to-Date

392 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 759    (peak 2.229 April 23)

31,857  New Cases
> 7-day average  34,247

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 13: Election Odds & Polls

September 13, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.0  Lead +670 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 43  Lead 17

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
Most recent poll: Sept. 8
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 13: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 13, 2020

198,118 Deaths-to-Date

698 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 757    (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,420  New Cases
> 7-day average  33,759

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Details below…

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Sept. 12: Election Odds & Polls

September 12, 2020

Biden +6.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.6  Trump 46.6  Lead +6.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50 

Sept. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 12, 2020

197,395 Deaths-to-Date

1,068 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 766    (peak 2.229 April 23)

46,270  New Cases
> 7-day average  34,162

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Details below…

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More: Fauci confirms “Trump was saying what we were telling him”

September 11, 2020

MUST READ: This post was updated Sept.13 with a substantially expanded timeline of who said what, when they said it … and how Trump responded at the time.

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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people.

Biden: “Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.

Trump: “Listening to the scientists, and didn’t want to prematurely cause a panic”.

How to settle the question?

Let’s start with what Dr. Anthony Fauci had to truth-tell on the matter:

click to view 4-minute video
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By Fauci’s own admission, Trump was “following the science” … contemporaneously channeling what Fauci and other “scientists” were telling him at the time. 

Let’s dig a little deeper on that and look hard at the timeline…

Read the rest of this entry »

Sept. 11: Election Odds & Polls

September 11, 2020

Biden +7 in odds, +7.5 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0  Trump 46.2  Lead +6.8 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 43  Lead 16

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5  Trump 43.0  Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5

**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 75  Trump 25  Lead 50