Mission Accomplished: Joe says “Zero inflation in July”…

My wife (and I) disrespectfully disagree!
=============

Last week, Biden declared victory over inflation and headed off to Kiawah Island for some vacation (away from the hustle & bustle of Rehoboth Beach).

His inflation claim is based on the overall CPI being unchanged from June to July.

That’s true … but, shall we say, both premature and misleading.

First, it ignores the fact that the  “all items” price level is up 8.5% year-over-year … and 12.5% since Biden took office.

And, while gas prices fell in July, they’re still up 44% versus year ago.

Most telling, and most aggravating to my wife (& me), is what’s happening at the grocery store.

The “food at home” price index is up 13.1% versus last year … its June to July change was 1.4% … which annualizes to over 18%.

Biden’s focus on a 1 month change is statistically silly, but let’s play his numbers game and look at the grocery staples that most people buy (chart below).

Let’s look at some June to July price changes (when Biden says there was no inflation)

  • Potatoes went up 4.6% in July …  71.5% APR
  • Eggs (which have increased 38% since last year) went up 4.3% in July …  65.7% APR
  • Bread went up 2.8% in July …  39.3% APR
  • Baby Food went up 2.1% in July …  28.3% APR
  • Breakfast Cereal went up 2.0% in July …  26.8% APR

You get the picture…

image
Source: FRED CPI

OK, that’s Biden’s way of looking at the numbers.

Let’s re-sort the chart by year-over-year price increases (which are statistically more representative.

A couple of “staple” examples.

  • Eggs are up 38% vs 2021 … and the trend is bad (based on the June to July increase)
  • Bread & potatoes have increased about 13.5% year-over-year … and their June to July increases were high.

image

==============

Sorry, Joe, this “inflation thing isn’t under control quite yet.

These items hit most families and the pain is both conspicuous and constant…

============

P.S. Meats (total) are “only” up 7.2% since last year … and their annualized rate based on the June to July numbers is “only“ 5.9%.

So, you can’t pin it on “Big Meat” ….

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: