Archive for the ‘Recession’ Category

It looks like a duck, it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck so …

July 29, 2022

In Biden-speak: It must be an eagle
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Of course, we’re talking about the “R” word – Recession.

In a prior post, we “followed the data” to observe that:

The past 10 times the U.S. economy experienced two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the NBER subsequently confirmed (holistically after-the fact)  that  a recession had occurred.

For details, see: When is a 2-quarter GDP drop not a recession?

Well, as expected, GDP fell for the second consecutive quarter and Team Biden — dismissing the data — stuck to its “reimagination” of a recession … claiming that the 2-quarter drop does not indicate that we’re in a recession.

Here’s what’s interesting …

Biden’s crack team of economists (Yellen, Deese, Bernstein) and media flacks (CNN, AP, Politico)  are on record proclaiming exactly the opposite … that a 2-quarter drop in GDP is RECESSION.

Want some evidence?

Team Tucker did a deep dive into their digital archives,

Here’s a 5-minute then & now montage that nails Team Biden’s hypocrisy… well worth viewing.

click to view (5 min.)
image
Source

So much for following the data…

When is a 2-quarter GDP drop not a recession?

July 26, 2022

Team Biden’s PR stunt reimagining what a recession is, in Biden-speak, pure malarkey.
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Team Biden’s crack team of political-economists is apparently trying to front-run this weeks GDP release by moving the goal posts.

Not by a couple of feet … or to the stadium parking lot … but to another stadium.

They’re saying “A recession is not fairly defined by a 2-quarter drop in GDP.  It needs to be evaluated holistically, after all related data is available and analyzed. And, that takes time. Maybe a year or so after the GDP decline.”

That’s partially true.

The NBER — the “official” recession sanctioning body — does consider multiple factors (i.e. more than simply a 2-quarter drop in GDP)  when declaring that a recession has occurred.

But, here’s an acid test question that cuts to the crux of the matter:

Out of the past 10 times the U.S. economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, how many times was a recession officially declared (holistically after-the fact) by the NBER?

Answer: All 10 times !

image
Source: AEI 

Said differently, post-WWII – a 2-quarter drop in GDP has been a perfect indicator of a recession.

In that time period, the NBER has always “holistically” confirmed  a recession after a 2-quarter drop in GDP

Nonetheless, Team Biden would advise:

Don’t generalize from your personal experience …and certainly don’t rely on the data … trust us Team Biden economists when we say that everything is fine & dandy.

These guys have no conscience.

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P.S. The pundit consensus seems to be that Team Biden’s front-running “reimagination” is an attempt to defuse the impact of of a bad GDP number.

Obviously, they already know what the “top secret” number is.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the reported number is an infinitesimal increase in GDP.

That would give Biden a chance to boldly proclaim: “See, I told you that we’re not in a recession. The economy is strong.”

Naw, they’re not that smart…

 

“I inherited the deficit” … say, what?

October 25, 2012

Draw your own conclusion, but looks to me like Obama inherited a $500 billion deficit

…. goosed it by a trillion dollars to kinda stimulate the economy

… and has hung well over a trillion dollars, way after the Stimulus.

What’s he talking about?

image
Source: Hot Air.com

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While we’re at it, note how the current recovery stacks up against prior recession recoveries …

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Source: Hot Air.com

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Re: “Uncertainty” … the Donkey in the living room.

August 8, 2011

I’m officially tired of the White House spinners.

Rather than admitting what everybody else already knows – that Obama wanted the debt deal to run until 2013 so it wouldn’t get raised again until the election – they continue to say that the debt ceiling had to be raised to reduce uncertainty for businesses … and extended  to  2013 to – you guessed it – reduce uncertainty and get businesses back to hiring.

The reality – based on my casual chats with biz execs – is that the only uncertainty that matters to them is whether Obama gets reelected or not.

If he does, then they’ll have certainty … certainty that ObamaCare and anti-business rhetoric and policies will be in place for an additional 4 years … dragging any hope of a real recovery out to 2016.

If he doesn’t get re-elected, hiring can start again in 2013.

But, nobody wants to talk about the donkey in the middle of the living room, for fear that they get the tanning salon treatment from the Administration.

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Why folks are feeling down …

July 26, 2010

Punch line: This has been the most egalitarian of all the 11 recessions since World War II.

In various ways, it has touched every social class through job loss, pay cuts, depressed home values, shrunken stock portfolios, eroded retirement savings, grown children returning home — and anxiety about all of the above.

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Excerpted from RCP: The Great Stranglehold, Robert Samuelson, July 12, 2010 

A new study from the Pew Research Center  confirms that Americans have become more frugal and changed life plans:

  • 71 percent say they’re buying less expensive brands
  • 57 percent say they’ve trimmed or eliminated vacations
  • 28 percent of Americans under 65 borrowed money from family or friends
  • 11 percent say they’ve postponed marriage or children
  • 9 percent have moved back with parents.

The economic and spiritual damage extends much further, for many reasons.

First, the huge job loss: By most measures (length of unemployment, permanent firings versus temporary layoffs), joblessness is the worst since World War II.  Younger workers change jobs more often and have higher jobless rates.)

Second, pay cuts: These have affected almost a quarter of workers, including nearly a fifth of those with family incomes exceeding $75,000. Some workers also have had to take unpaid leave or part-time work.

Third, the loss of housing and stock market wealth: This decline (more than 25 percent at its peak on an annual basis) has been concentrated among higher-income Americans, who own a disproportionate share of the wealth. A reverse wealth effect has gripped the upper middle class. Feeling poorer, people saved more and spent less. Their reluctance to make major purchase commitments (a new car or home) validates their pessimism by retarding recovery.

Full article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/12/the_great_stranglehold_106258.html


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