I was about to concede on behalf of John McCain today (Sunday). Then, a number caught my eye. With other polls hovering around a 5 or 6 point Obama lead, the IBD-TIPP poll (the most accurate in 2004) showed a continuing closing of the gap — to 2 points.
So, I dug down into the ‘internals’ of the poll. Lo and behold here’s what I found.
Way back on October 22, I posted “5 Factors to Watch as the Campaigns Close”
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/for-the-record-5-factors-to-watch-as-the-campaigns-close/
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Catholics were at the top of the list on Oct. 22 :
Catholics
According to IBD/TIPP (the most accurate poll in the 2004 election), Catholics are currently favoring Obama over McCain 47% to 43%
http://ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309299583450546
Ken’s Take: Watch this shift as Catholic bishops remind church goers that the sanctity of life is a fundamental tenet of the Church. The abortion debate has been back-burnered, watch it heat up
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Well, look what’s happened in the past week:
Bottom line: According to IBD-TIPP, McCain has gained 7 points among Catholics; Obama is down 6 in the past week and down 9 from his high water mark of 47%. So, the current gap is 13 and the trend appears to be in McCain’s favor. And, there are still 10% undecideds.
That’s probably why McCain has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania — a state with a lot of rural voters who support him and a lot of Catholics who seem to be swinging his way.
How can the trend be explained? Well, many Catholic bishops have been explicitly clarifying the Church’s standing on some pivotal issues, and a 527 called the GOP Trust has been blanketing swing states with a hard-hitting Rev. Wright TV spot. To view it: http://nationalrepublicantrust.com/
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out on Tuesday..
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