Archive for February 17th, 2009

Uh-oh … is Obama’s star starting to fade ?

February 17, 2009

Ken’s Take: The press constantly points to Obama’s 60% approval rating.  That’s good, but drilling down: since inauguration day, total approval is down 5 points, strong approval is down 7 points, strong disapproval is up 10 points, and the approval index (strongly approve minus strongly disapprove) is  down to 11 from it’s high at 30.  He got a pop from the nationally televised press conference, but it faded quickly.

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Excerpted from Rasmusssen Reports, February 14, 2009

Overall, 60% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far   … that’s down 5 points from 65% just after the inauguration.

37% strongly approve of the President’s performance so far … that’s down 7 points from 44% just after the inauguration

26% strongly disapprove of the President’s performance so far … that’s up 10 points from 16% just after the inauguration

48% of Republican voters nationwide now voice such a negative opinion, up from 29% in the first polling after inauguration day.

85% of African-American voters strongly approve of the President’s performance so far … 30% of white voters do 

66% of political liberals strongly approve of the President’s performance while 50% of conservatives Strongly Disapprove.

Obama’s Presidential Approval Index (the differ3nce between the strongly approve and strongly disapprove) is now 11, down from 28 just after the inauguration

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49% of Americans trust their own judgment on economic matters more than they trust the President’s judgment … two-thirds of voters trust their own judgment more than the average member of Congress.

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Source article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

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The stimulus package broken down …

February 17, 2009

Great analysis by the Washington Post.  Good numbers and clever charting.

Too big to extract, so here’s the link.  Worth browsing.

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/02/01/GR2009020100154.gif

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Hey, Mr. Stimulus … What about small business?

February 17, 2009

Ken’s Take: I was surprised recently when — for a special occasion —  I attempted to make reservations at an Annapolis restaurant (Northwoods) that many locals propped as the the best in the city. It had closed after a couple of decades.  An article in the local newspaper listed it as a casualty of the economy.  Also, I got emails on the same day from a local painter — practically begging for work at any price, and from a local carpenter who was networking to land a job in web design (you read that right).  Since then, I’ve noticed the number of small businesses dying.  Bottom line: the stimulus package is giving more to ACORN than it is to small businesses in total.  That’s sad.

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Excerpted from Knowledge@Emory, “Will the 2009 Stimulus Act Fizzle?”, February 12, 2009

Have you heard anything about what Congress is providing for small businesses in the current economic stimulus package being debated in Washington?

Small businesses in particular are concerned that the stimulus package misses the boat. Small businesses are defined as companies with fewer than 10 employees, and they account for almost 80 percent of all U.S. companies, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) lobbying group. Small businesses are credited with generating about 70 percent of all new jobs.

“Funding, not consumer spending, is the core issue for small businesses,” he says. “Right now lenders are hesitant to extend money to commercial borrowers even when they have a good track record, and in some cases are actually calling in loans that they have already funded.”

“The freeze in funding is hurting small businesses much more than the shortfall in sales is hurting them  … Without the necessary cash to grease the gears and keep the business going, companies have had no choice but to reduce costs. And that, unfortunately, results in a cutback on capital expenditures and a need to lay off workers. So cash, in the form of loans, is the mechanism that is most important, but the stimulus bill can do little to help in that regard.”

“Typically, the propensity for risk taking goes down in a weak economy … The typical rounds of early stage financing from friends and family and angel investors depends on excess capital. Reduced wealth means that these usual sources of early venture financing are unavailable to entrepreneurs … in the current environment, many banks are not willing or able to provide loans or lines of credit, leaving very few options for entrepreneurs.”

Increased SBA funding in the stimulus package could provide some rapid assistance to small businesses

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Full article:
http://knowledge.emory.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1218# 

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Jefferson (Thomas of Virginia, not William of Louisiana) is rolling over in his grave …

February 17, 2009

These Jeffersonian quotes have been making the email rounds.  Even if TJ didn’t really say this stuff, it’s worth reading.

Too bad TJ wasn’t here for the stimulus debate.  Oops, I forgot.  There wasn’t time for one.

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“I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.”

“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.”

“The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not”

“It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes.”

“My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.”

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Thanks to SGC for the heads-up

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As economy falters, upscale wines cut prices (a little)

February 17, 2009

Excerpted from San Francisco Chronicle, “Suddenly, Those Rare Wines Aren’t So Rare”, by Jon Bonne, January 30, 2009

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Industry experts estimate most of us are shrinking what we’ll spend on a bottle of wine by 20 to 50 percent for anything more than $10, with the occasional splurge. The thirst for $25 has dwindled to $15; $8 is the new $12.

That perilous midrange above $30 and below, say, $100? That’s where the real fear lies if you make wine.

Wine auctions struggled through the latter half of 2008, slashing their projected hammer figures, and lot prices have dropped between 10 and 30 percent since last summer, in part a correction of a runaway bull (wine) market in the past three years.

San Francisco’s Vinfolio, which specializes in locating high-end wines, has a different worry. Its average bottle price remains around $170, but with fewer sales.

In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. If you have the money, now is the best time in perhaps a decade to start a collection or taste the unattainable.

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Wines once nowhere to be found on store shelves have for months been making quiet appearances there, often because restaurants’ allocations have been left adrift. Retailers are suddenly scoring bottles of a litany of impressive California names.

All of this should give pause to wineries still playing in that realm over $30. (Beyond $100, you’re either betting on a track record or blindly ambitious.) Brand loyalty? In a recession it has the life span of a housefly. Uniqueness sells wine, but there are oceans of not-so-unique wine around. Plus foreign currencies have weakened just enough to let us all drink astoundingly well from overseas. 

Part of survival is pricing to the market.  It’s going to get interesting when the inevitable price correction for all those overblown $50 Syrahs and $80 Cabernets bump up against California’s fixed labor and grape costs.

There is opportunity here. For a while, more California winemakers have needed to fill the gap between cheap table wines (we have plenty of those) and fancy bottles (plenty of those too) with honest under-$20 wine that looks and tastes sophisticated while speaking honestly of its origins.

Edit by DAF

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Full article:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/30/FD5L15EMGG.DTL&type=printable

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