The Homa Files

Last Monday, I posted that Rasmussen – the daily tracking poll that I follow – reported Obama’s PAI (Presidential Approval Index – the difference between likely voters who “strongly approve” and those who “strongly disapprove”) soared to +10,.  That is, 34% strongly approved, 24% strongly disapproved.  Pundits attributed the gain – up from low single digits – to a Sotomayer “bounce”.

Well, last Friday’s Rasmussen Report pegged Obama’s PAI at zero – 34% strongly approved, 34% strongly disapproved.  A huge change. 

While the polling data may just be statistical noise,  some pundits point to the GM deal – which is only favored by about 1 in 4 people – and, the President’s Mid East tour – which gave Iran the OK for “peaceful” nuclear development and, seemed to some, to throw Israel under the bus.

Over the weekend, Obama’s PAI bounced back a little to +3 – 35% to 32%.

The PAI’s underlying demographics are interesting (and under-reported):

Obama’s PAI is plus 66 among blacks (65% to 4%), plus 13 among “others” (38% to 25%), and minus 8 among whites (29% to 37%).

Obamas’ PAI among Dems is a sky-high plus 54 (64% to 10%), minus 11 among Independents (23% to 34%), and minus 47 among GOPers (10% to 67%).

Rasmussen pegs Obama’s overall approval – the sum of strongly and somewhat approve – at 53%.

Hmmmm …. Key groups to watch: the Independents and “others”

* * * * *

Statistical note: Rasmussen surveys “likely voters”.  Polls that broaden the sample to “registered voters” or “all adults” tend to be more favorable to President Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This entry was posted on June 8, 2009 at 7:26 am and is filed under Obama Administration. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.