As far back as July, 2009, the HomaFiles is on record as saying that the economic recovery would be slow and delayed for reasons beyond pure economics. That CEOs would be reluctant to hire as long as the Administration was punitively anti-business.
At the time, we said:
The bottom line: businesses will resist government policies passive aggressively. Fewer jobs will get added back than history would suggest, and those that get added back will materialize later than past patterns. Businesses will add jobs as a last resort rather than trying to build capacity ahead of the economic growth curve. Why should companies increase their costs and risks any more than is absolutely necessary ? Companies will continue to off-shore jobs, but will be more clever and clandestine about it, e.g. by vertically disintegrating and simply buying goods and services from 3rd parties.
Given the Administration’s anti-corporate rhetoric, actions, and proposed game-changing rules, I doubt that many CEOs will be taking on added costs and risks to boost the administration. More likely, they will let unemployment continue to creep up, and will slow roll the process of rehiring. Corporate chieftains will sit back and watch the President squirm.
My view wasn’t really original thinking. It was simply what I was hearing privately from senior biz execs.
Well, a couple of years later, the argument seems to be catching some traction.
In an article titled The Coming Post-Obama Renaissance, Victor Davis Hanson writes:
When Obama leaves office, there will be a sense of psychological release in the business community that will lead to a far greater “stimulus” than printing more money.
the country is still growing, still needs new homes, more food, and more energy.
We are not a shrinking nation with the demographic crises of a Europe or Russia.
Soon the mounting pressure will be released by a new change in government and we will see a recovery that should have occurred more than two years ago when the recession officially “ended” in June 2009 — only all the more enhanced due to its delay.
If I were a GOP President-elect, I’d call in the business movers & shakers … tell them that I’ll be working feverishly to support business … and ask them to give the benefit of the doubt and to start making decisions “at the margin” – e.g. an extra job here or there – to move the economy ahead. Not dumb stuff – just some decisions at the margin. Suddenly, there would be a virtuous cycle.
Remember, you heard it here first. …
Tags: Economic recovery, Passive aggressive behavior, Post-Obama Renaissance
The Homa Files 
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