Let’s set the stage: The President is caught between a rock (his unions) and a hard place (his enviromentalist supporters).
So, he punts the XL pipeline decision until after the 2012 election … telling both sides not to worry that he’ll take their side when nut-cutting time comes.
Everybody with an IQ over 50 sees the move as pure politics, but Obama’s boxed.
To the rescue: the GOP … by demanding that XL be part of the payroll tax cut extension legislation.
Of course, Obama plays the Brer Rabbit card and threatens a veto.
So, the GOP hardens its position … XL has got to be part of the package.
It will be.
Why?
Because O gets off the hook.
Even he knows the pipeline is a good idea – jobs, energy independence, etc.
He’d like to sign it, but can’t because of the pressure from the environmentalists.
He can’t, unless he’s painted into a corner, say, by the GOP demanding it to pass the payroll tax cut.
So, the bill will pass with XL in it, the President will sign it, and he’ll tell the environmentalists that he had no choice.
You heard it here in the HomaFiles …
Tags: Obama, payroll tax cut, XL
The Homa Files 
December 15, 2011 at 10:11 am |
Letting politics delay approval of KXL for 12-18 months has three negative outcomes:
1) increases uncertainty around US energy policy and delays capital investment (I.e. jobs)
2) gives the Chinese a larger opening to invest in Alberta and increase competition for a massive resource with low geological and political risk
3) damages our refining industry by limiting the supply of heavy oil and eroding margins – likely result is refinery closures and declining gasoline/diesel exports
Those aren’t worth the marginal posotive impact for Pres. Obama. Behind emissions regs and fracking regs, this is probably the biggest energy policy question on the board. The GOP did the right thing to push the issue.