As Nick Cannon would say on America’s Got Talent; “America has voted”.
Most amazing is that after $2 billion in campaign spending, hundreds of speeches, and much hand wrenching … we’re right back where we started … with a stagnant economy, a government fiscal crisis, and a government that doesn’t work.
Same Obama, same Senate, same House.
Some specific morning after thoughts …
- President Obama … big win … but may be one the biggest losers … he’s facing a political & economic mess
- Romney … gave it a good shot … but in the end, he was right: 47% wouldn’t vote for him under any circumstances
- Nate Silver nailed it … somehow, averaging a bunch of bad numbers can give you good numbers … gotta admire the guy for sticking to his analytical convictions.
- Michael Barone & Peggy Noonan … two of the savviest political observers around – one a quant, one a qual – missed it big … that surprises me.
- Chris Christie may be the biggest loser … though I don’t think his wet kissing Obama was determining, it ended any hopes that Christie may have for the Presidency … many in the GOP will blame him and never forget.
- Marco Rubio … would have made a difference in Florida … and incrementally with Hispanics … but not nearly enough to change the outcome.
- Hillary Clinton … if she survives Benghazigate, she’s odds on favorite in 2016 … especially since Bubba stepped up for Obama
- GOP candidates … who in there right mind would run for President? … Romney is a good & decent guy … and he got savaged by the successful politics of personal destruction … we’ll continue to have a Presidential talent drain
- Independents … polls showed them favoring Romney by 10 points … exit polls are saying Obama broke even or won them … how did that happen?
- Catholics … apparently broke for Obama … and now, lose their legitimacy to whine when their religious rights get trampled.
My basic prediction was very wrong … I said “Romney wins popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and wins about 285 electoral votes.”
But, I hit one of the most important nails on the head when I said:
“ I don’t underestimate the “power of free” … the nation may have reached the tipping point … it’s Obama’s ace in the hole.”
I should have listened more carefully to myself.
People like when other people buy them things.
Cut to the chase, and that was the election determinant … keep the government checks coming … non-contributory entitlements, cushy government jobs and pensions, etc.
As Maggie Thatcher would say, though: “What happens when the other people run out of money?”
Also, I’m sticking with my prediction: stock market down 30% in the next 12 months … maybe faster … even though many more knowledgeable gurus disagree.
My view: it’s time to play defensively … not much upside to gamble for … and if there were upside, it’s going to get taxed away any way.
That’s not investment advice … just one man’s point-of-view,
In the 2016 campaign the issues will be the same: stagnant economy, high energy costs, low full-time employment (lots of temps & part-timers), fiscal cliff, bankrupted entitlements ineffective education system and, oh yeah, high inflation.
That sound you hear is the clanging of the can being kicked down the road …
The Homa Files 