As Nick Cannon would say on America’s Got Talent; “America has voted”.
Most amazing is that after $2 billion in campaign spending, hundreds of speeches, and much hand wrenching … we’re right back where we started … with a stagnant economy, a government fiscal crisis, and a government that doesn’t work.
Same Obama, same Senate, same House.
Some specific morning after thoughts …
- President Obama … big win … but may be one the biggest losers … he’s facing a political & economic mess
- Romney … gave it a good shot … but in the end, he was right: 47% wouldn’t vote for him under any circumstances
- Nate Silver nailed it … somehow, averaging a bunch of bad numbers can give you good numbers … gotta admire the guy for sticking to his analytical convictions.
- Michael Barone & Peggy Noonan … two of the savviest political observers around – one a quant, one a qual – missed it big … that surprises me.
- Chris Christie may be the biggest loser … though I don’t think his wet kissing Obama was determining, it ended any hopes that Christie may have for the Presidency … many in the GOP will blame him and never forget.
- Marco Rubio … would have made a difference in Florida … and incrementally with Hispanics … but not nearly enough to change the outcome.
- Hillary Clinton … if she survives Benghazigate, she’s odds on favorite in 2016 … especially since Bubba stepped up for Obama
- GOP candidates … who in there right mind would run for President? … Romney is a good & decent guy … and he got savaged by the successful politics of personal destruction … we’ll continue to have a Presidential talent drain
- Independents … polls showed them favoring Romney by 10 points … exit polls are saying Obama broke even or won them … how did that happen?
- Catholics … apparently broke for Obama … and now, lose their legitimacy to whine when their religious rights get trampled.
My basic prediction was very wrong … I said “Romney wins popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and wins about 285 electoral votes.”
But, I hit one of the most important nails on the head when I said:
“ I don’t underestimate the “power of free” … the nation may have reached the tipping point … it’s Obama’s ace in the hole.”
I should have listened more carefully to myself.
People like when other people buy them things.
Cut to the chase, and that was the election determinant … keep the government checks coming … non-contributory entitlements, cushy government jobs and pensions, etc.
As Maggie Thatcher would say, though: “What happens when the other people run out of money?”
Also, I’m sticking with my prediction: stock market down 30% in the next 12 months … maybe faster … even though many more knowledgeable gurus disagree.
My view: it’s time to play defensively … not much upside to gamble for … and if there were upside, it’s going to get taxed away any way.
That’s not investment advice … just one man’s point-of-view,
In the 2016 campaign the issues will be the same: stagnant economy, high energy costs, low full-time employment (lots of temps & part-timers), fiscal cliff, bankrupted entitlements ineffective education system and, oh yeah, high inflation.
That sound you hear is the clanging of the can being kicked down the road …
The Homa Files 
November 7, 2012 at 9:24 am |
Great synopsis
November 7, 2012 at 9:36 am |
Sour grapes much?
Sent from my iPhone
November 7, 2012 at 9:37 am |
Point One: I am one of those Catholic voters castigated above. And as a single issue voter (pro-life), I had no trouble voting for Romney. But, the Magisterium has a good segment of cafeteria voters.
Georgetown sought out the Sandra Fluke style student- not vice versa. It raises the question about whether Catholic outreach via the universities, hospitals, social services is of increasingly marginal utility. It buys the Church zero social benefit. See my Facebook page- packed as it is with several dozen fellow alums: largely secular, disproportionately Jewish and lapsed Catholic. They share three unifying themes: a Sandra Fluke-like contempt of Catholicism, a love for President Obama and Georgetown degrees.
Writ large, I worry about that disconnect. Church sponsorship is supposed to generate respect for the institutions of Roman Catholicism- not gleeful remonstrations at our stumbles.
So whose culture is rubbing off on who? I know for a fact that my fellow alums and their spouses used their G’town connections on Facebook to raise money for Planned Parenthood. I get their solicitations because it wouldn’t even begin to occur to them that pro-life people got an MBA at Georgetown.
Consequently, I worry about your point: that Catholics have largely lost the right to complain. Both my fellow alumni and the cafeteria Catholic voter show the weakness of the bishops, prestige properties (Notre Dame), schools, hospitals, pastors- and the weak get rolled.
November 7, 2012 at 9:41 am |
Point two: I am a little more sanguine than you about the economic effects of this election.
The macro economy is very segmented. You can have recessions whipping through certain portions, and recoveries elsewhere. So despite there being depression-level economic conditions for rural single mothers and urban African-Americans, and a recession for those on fixed incomes, there are also big macro clusters doing well.
Not to go Pauline Kael on you, but I honestly don’t know anyone who I deem productive that is long-term unemployed. My socio-economic and family circle: mostly married and educated, almost entirely white- really is in recovery: housing values creeping back, no structural unemployment.
For another example, has there ever been a time to be a government employee. That is 22% of the labor force right now- and it is a golden era. Two married federal employees probably gross nearly $400K a year in salary and benefits… more than Wall Street.
Or another- the businesses of investing in rent-seeking behaviors fueled by the expansion of govt. It is exploding. You can’t build enough luxury housing outside state universities.
I’m no academic. I can’t define the exact size and scope of this segmented macro recovery- but it is there. And that accounts for two things: Obama’s surprisingly strong approval rating and a certain level of economic activity in the macro segments that most directly effects stock prices.