The Homa Files

There was Administrative euphoria last week when the employment numbers were released … almost 200,000 jobs added.

In the words of former Obama economic guru Austan Goolsbee: “Whoo-hoo”

Yep. positive sign.

But, let’s look a little deeper … a couple of charts I haven’t seen other places.

Month-to-month changes can be a bit misleading, especially with seasonal adjustments.

So, let’s look at employment levels year-to-year … this year and a year ago.

Note a couple of things:

1) The blue line (current year) looks pretty flat for the past 6 months

2) The gap between the red line and the blue line is narrowing … implying that the year-over-year growth is slowing.

= = = = =

Sure enough, the year-over-year growth rate has slowed from about 2% to about 1%.

Hmmm.

Let’s keep the champagne in the frig for awhile…

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Tags: FRED

This entry was posted on March 15, 2013 at 3:00 pm and is filed under Employment - Jobs, Unemployment. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.