The Homa Files

I often confess to my students that I thought about 51% of the business decisions were correct … and that was despite my analytical pre-disposition and the benefit of a highly proficient team of managers and analysts.

Apparently, my record was about on par.

According to decision scientists Chip & Dan Heath in Decisive: How to Make Better Choices …

• 83% of mergers & acquisitions fail to create any value for shareholders.
• 60% of the executives reported that bad decisions were about as frequent as good ones [i.e. odds of a right decision are about 50 / 50]
• 40% of senior-level hires “are pushed out, fail or quit within 18 months.”
• More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years.

Geez, might as well flip a coin, right?

= = = = =

More posts coming re: the dismal record – and how to up the odds

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This entry was posted on July 2, 2014 at 6:59 am and is filed under Cognitive biases, Decision-making. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.