If Mitt’s route to the White House is through Ohio, I’m not optimistic for him … for 5 reasons:
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1. Romney isn’t leading in any of the Ohio polls.
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2. Romney is doing well in affluent suburbs … and, Ohio doesn’t have many of them.
Insightful analysis by Michael Barone:
A pro-Romney affluent swing is confirmed by the internals of some national polls.
Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown Romney carrying affluent suburbanites by statistically significant margins.
In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney.
That tends to validate a scenario that Mitt Romney fares much better in affluent suburbs
This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls.
Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in, say, Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.
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3. Obama’s early negative ad blitz worked in Ohio.
This is strictly anecdotal – from a small, non-projectable sample of friends & relatives in Cleveland.
They bought into Obama’s ad blitz demonizing Romney – they believe that he’ll stop their social security checks if elected.
Now, they’ve got ad fatigue and actively resist political commercials.
They’re classic uninformed voters. They get their news for the local NBC affiliate, so they haven’t even heard of Benghazi or the fiscal cliff.
Obama has them locked.
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4. Neither Gov. Kasich nor Sen. candidate Mandel are factors
I think Kasich is doing a good job balancing the budget and attracting business … Ohio’s unemployment rate is below the national average.
But, he’s only marginally popular because he has taken on the unions.
And, it doesn’t appear that he has a political apparatus in place to spur GOTV activity.
Mandel seems like a reasonable kid, but isn’t going to be a poll magnet
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5. The auto bailout is a simple, compelling story
Like it or hate it, people get it.
In a campaign with a lot of complicated issues, this is one folks can understand.
Simple message: Obama authorized the $$$, favored the unions, more people have jobs.
It’s a tough message to sell against.
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One Ohio bright spot for Romney
The best I can muster is that Obama only hits 50% in one poll … even the flakey Time poll only has him at 49%.
Conventional wisdom says that the undecideds break for the challenger … especially if he has some mo going.
What I’m watching: for Romney to take an Ohio lead in Rasmussen or Suffolk (only polls I really trust) … and then hit a 50% in one of them.
I call it a longshot.
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Why Wisconsin could break for Romney
First, the case against Romney in Wisconsin: trailing in all the polls, Obama at 50% in Rasmussen, Madison is a huge liberal hotbed – with a gazillion students ready to vote.
So, why do I think Wisconsin could break for Romney?
Basically, it’s the inverse of the Ohio logic:
1. Gov. Walker is a force – a winner.
2. Polls said Walker would barely escape the recall … he rolled up big numbers.
3. Tommy Thompson (former Governor) is popular and knows how to win … he may pull voters in.
4. More favorable demographics for Romney – more traditional Midwest values, more affluent suburbs than Ohio.
5. Wisconsin voters didn’t get the summer barrage of Obama’s “Romney is the devil” ads.
6. Obama dissed the unions during the recall election … I’m betting that they don’t forget.
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Bottom line
I’m betting Mitt’s road to the White House goes through Wisconsin not Ohio.
The Homa Files 